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JACKSONVILLE – The dead period is about to get livelier. And not just because the NFL gathers in Indianapolis Tuesday for its annual week of poking, prodding, projecting and pontificating. It’s what will happen around and after the NFL Scouting Combine, too.

Free agency is coming, and though the official opening of the period doesn’t come until Tuesday, March 11 at 4 p.m. – the official time and date of the beginning of the 2014 NFL “league year” – the groundwork can begin being laid on February 17.

That’s Monday, the first day teams can designate “franchise and transition” players.

Under NFL rules, teams can place the tags on potential free agents, restricting or prohibiting their potential for free-agent movement to various degrees. There are a lot of details involved, but what’s key to know is teams rarely use transition tags and they rarely use any tag except the so-called “nonexclusive franchise tag.”

That’s what people mean when they say a player has been “franchised,” and it essentially means the tagged player can either choose not to play, or play for the tagging team under a one-year contract for a guaranteed “franchise salary.” The salary is determined by a complex formula based on a position’s average salary cap percentages over a five-year period.

What’s important are the estimated tenders, which are what franchise players will make and what they will cost against a team’s salary cap. Those are listed below.

The Jaguars are not expected to use the franchise tag this offseason, with running back Maurice Jones-Drew and quarterback Chad Henne among players scheduled to become unrestricted free agents. General Manager David Caldwell said recently he expects to begin negotiations with Henne soon, and that while Jones-Drew is expected to test free agency, the team would also like to explore options to have him return.

Other Jaguars players scheduled to become unrestricted free agents March 11 are defensive tackle Brandon Deaderick, tight end Clay Harbor and cornerback Will Blackmon. Right tackle Cameron Bradfield and tight end Allen Reisner are scheduled to be restricted free agents, which means the Jaguars can extend them an offer making it unlikely they will sign elsewhere.

What will the free-agent market look like league-wide come March 11?

And how will the Jaguars approach it?

The first answer won’t be clear until the free agency actually begins. Many players who now appear to be desirable free agents will go off the market between Monday and March 3, the final day teams can use the franchise or transition tags. Many free agents also will sign long-term contracts with their current teams, taking more players off the market.

Another key time is March 8-10. That’s the “pre-free agency period,” when teams can negotiate with free agents from other teams, though contracts not be signed or finalized during that period.

As for how the Jaguars approach it, that remains to be seen, too. The team likely will be more involved in the early, Tier One stage than last year, when it avoided the frenzied early wave and opted to instead to sign players such as linebacker Geno Hayes, Alan Ball, defensive tackle Roy Miller, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks and running back Justin Forsett to short-term deals.

Caldwell has said the team likely will research/target players early in free agency, with interior offensive line a possible area of focus. At the same time, Caldwell said the Jaguars won’t overspend during that period, and building through the draft will remain the primary focus.


Below are the projected franchise tag numbers and jaguars.com’s franchise tag tracker that will be updated periodically as warranted:

2014 Estimated franchise tenders

Quarterbacks ($16.086 million), running backs ($9.074 million), wide receivers ($11.539 million), tight ends ($6.709 million), offensive line ($11.126 million), defensive ends ($12.475million), defensive tackles ($9.182 million), linebackers ($10.895 million), cornerbacks ($11.256 million), safeties ($8.021 million) and kickers/punters ($3.383 million).


Franchise Tag Tracker

Team | Candidates | Comment
AFC East

Bills | S Jairus Byrd, K Dan Carpenter | Byrd too costly to tag a second time; Carpenter more likely

Patriots | CB Aqib Talib, WR Julian Edelman | Aqib merits tag, but Patriots don’t seem likely to use it

Dolphins | CB Brent Grimes, DT Randy Starks | Grimes a likely option to be tagged

Jets | K Nick Folk, OT Austin Howard | Howard’s right tackle slot makes franchise tag less likely


AFC North

Ravens | TE Dennis Pitta, OT Eugene Monroe| Pitta the more likely candidate here

Steelers | WR Emmanuel Sanders, LB Jason Worilds | Steelers not expected to use tag

Browns | C Alex Mack, S T.J. Ward | Ward a likely candidate, with OL tag too high to use on a center

Bengals| DE Michael Johnson, OT Anthony Collins | Bengals not expected to tag Johnson


AFC South

Jaguars | RB Maurice Jones-Drew, QB Chad Henne | Jaguars not expected to use tag

Colts | P Pat McAfee, CB Vontae Davis, RB Donald Brown, K Adam Vinatieri | Davis most likely candidate

Titans | CB Alterraun Verner, S Bernard Pollard | Titans not expected to use tag

Texans | RB Ben Tate, DE Antonio Smith | Neither Smith nor Tate seem like a likely candidate for tag


AFC West

Broncos | WR Eric Decker, RB Knowshon Moreno | Not expected to franchise Decker or Moreno

Raiders | LT Jared Veldheer, DE Lamarr Houston, DT Pat Sims |Veldheer appears most likely possibility

Chargers | LB Donald Butler | Butler appears likely candidate to be tagged

Chiefs | OT Branden Albert | Tagging Albert would be very costly; appears unlikely


NFC East

Redskins | LB Brian Orakpo | Most franchise-tag drama in DC this year will center on Orakpo

Cowboys | DE Anthony Spencer, DL Jason Hatcher | Cowboys have said they’re unlikely to use tag

Giants | WR Hakeem Nicks, LB Jon Beason, DT Linval Joseph |Beason, Joseph seem most likely

Eagles | WR Riley Cooper, WR Jeremy Maclin, P Donnie Jones | No obvious choice for tag here


NFC North

Bears | DT Henry Melton | Bears not expected to use tag this offseason

Packers | TE Jermichael Finley | Packers unlikely to use tag this offseason

Lions | TE Brandon Pettigrew | Pettigrew a possible target for cap-strapped Lions

Vikings | DE Jared Allen | Vikings unlikely to use tag on anyone – even the very expensive Allen


NFC South

Saints | TE Jimmy Graham | Tag a certainty if sides can’t agree to long-term contract

Panthers | DE Greg Hardy | Panthers’ cap issues could make it tough to franchise him

Buccaneers | None | Not likely to use tag |

Falcons | None | Not likely to use tag


NFC West

Rams | OT Roger Saffold | Rams not overly likely to use tag

49ers | WR Anquan Boldin, QB Tarell Brown, S Donte Whitner, K Phil Dawson | Not expected to use tag

Seahawks | DE Michael Bennett, K Steven Hauscka | Not expected to use tag this offseason

Cardinals | K Jay Feely | Cardinals not likely to franchise anyone, but Feely is possible


Top 2014 Free Agents by position


Quarterback

Michael Vick, Eagles

Josh McCown, Bears

Chad Henne, Jaguars

Matt Flynn, Packers

Josh Freeman, Vikings

Matt Cassel, Vikings

Kellen Clemens, Rams

Shaun Hill, Lions

Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks

Colt McCoy, 49ers


Running back

Ben Tate, Texans

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

Darren McFadden, Raiders

LeGarrette Blount, Patriots

Donald Brown, Colts

Andre Brown, Giants

Rashad Jennings, Raiders

James Starks, Packers

Rashard Mendenhall, Cardinals

Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants

Toby Gerhart, Vikings

Anthony Dixon, 49ers

Brian Leonard, Buccaneers

LaRod Stephens Howling, Steelers


Fullback

Greg Jones, Texans

John Kuhn, Packers


Wide receiver

Eric Decker, Broncos

Hakeem Nicks, Giants

Jeremy Maclin, Eagles

Anquan Boldin, 49ers

Golden Tate, Seahawks

James Jones, Packers

Julian Edelman, Patriots

Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers

Andre Roberts, Cardinals

Riley Cooper, Eagles

Danario Alexander, Chargers

Jacoby Jones, Ravens

Kenny Britt, Titans

Jerricho Cotchery, Steelers

Ted Ginn, Panthers


Tight end

Jimmy Graham, Saints

Dennis Pitta, Ravens

Jermichael Finley, Packers

Scott Chandler, Bills

Brandon Myers, Giants

Brandon Pettigrew, Lions

Garrett Graham, Texans

Dustin Keller, Dolphins

Andrew Quarless, Packers

Fred Davis, Redskins


Offensive tackle

Branden Albert, Chiefs

Eugene Monroe, Ravens

Jared Veldheer, Raiders

Michael Oher, Ravens

Jordan Gross, Panthers

Anthony Collins, Bengals

Rodger Saffold, Rams

Breno Giacomini, Seahawks

Austin Howard, Jets

Charles Brown, Saints

Zach Strief, Saints

Bryant McKinnie, Dolphins

Eric Winston, Cardinals

Ryan Harris, Texans

Tyson Clabo, Dolphins


Offensive guard

Travelle Wharton, Panthers

Geoff Schwartz, Chiefs

Chad Rinehart, Chargers

Jon Asamoah, Chiefs

Wade Smith, Texans

Zane Beadles, Broncos

Willie Colon, Jets

Brian Waters, Cowboys

John Jerry, Dolphins

Shawn Lauvao, Browns


Center

Alex Mack, Browns

Evan Dietrich-Smith, Packers

Brian De La Puente, Saints

Ryan Wendell, Patriots

Roberto Garza, Bears

Jonathan Goodwin, 49ers

Fernando Velasco, Steelers

Ryan Cook, Cowboys


Defensive end

Greg Hardy, Panthers

Michael Bennett, Seahawks

Lamarr Houston, Raiders

Michael Johnson, Bengals

Jared Allen, Vikings

Arthur Jones, Ravens

Justin Tuck, Giants

Everson Griffen, Vikings

Robert Ayers, Broncos

Anthony Spencer, Cowboys

Corey Wootton, Bears

Calvin Pace, Jets

Willie Young, Lions

Jeremy Mincey, Broncos

Matt Shaughnessy, Cardinals


Defensive tackle

Linval Joseph, Giants

Harry Melton, Bears

Tyson Jackson, Chiefs

Jason Hatcher, Cowboys

B.J. Raji, Packers

Randy Starks, Dolphins

Clinton McDonald, Seahawks

Paul Soliai, Dolphins

Jonathan Babineaux, Falcons

Vance Walker, Raiders

Antonio D. Smith, Texans

Kevin Williams, Vikings

Alex Carrington, Bills

Pat Sims, Raiders

Earl Mitchell, Texans


Outside linebacker

Brian Orapko, Redskins

Jason Worilds, Steelers

Shaun Phillips, Broncos


Inside linebacker

Donald Butler, Chargers

Karlos Dansby, Cardinals

Jon Beason, Giants

Daryl Smith, Ravens

Brandon Spikes, Patriots


Cornerback

Brent Grimes, Dolphins

Vontae Davis, Colts

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Broncos

Aqib Talib, Patriots

Alterraun Verner, Titans

Tarrell Brown, 49ers

Captain Munnerlyn, Panthers

Sam Shields, Packers

Charles Tillman, Bears

Walter Thurmond, Seahawks

Chris Cook, Vikings

Tracy Porter, Raiders

DeAngelo Hall, Redskins

Corey Graham, Ravens

Trumaine McBride, Giants


Safety

Jairus Byrd, Bills

T.J. Ward, Browns

Donte Whitner, 49ers

Antoine Bethea, Colts

Malcolm Jenkins, Saints

Major Wright, Bears

Nate Allen, Eagles

Charles Woodson, Raiders

Michael Mitchell, Panthers

Ryan Clark, Steelers

Quote (Terps @ Feb 15 2014 09:03pm)

^article could have had its own thread, despite the perspective. Good to know who might be getting franchised.

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- As I sat in the waiting area of the Jacksonville Jaguars' football operations offices, the things that stood out to me were the doors. They were all open, not just cracked, either, but wide open -- and from what I've been told it's always that way.

Down one hall, the door to head coach Gus Bradley's office was wide open. The doors to the other coach's offices were also open, some sitting in there doing their evaluations. And the one closest to me, the one I would soon step through to enter the office of general manger Dave Caldwell, was open as well.

In a league full of paranoia, where CIA-like mentality exists for most teams, the Jaguars might be on the cutting edge of something new, and it isn't their innovative analytics department.

"We are very transparent," Caldwell said.

It's not like they're going to give out their player information to anybody who shows up, but their open ways are far different than what you would get from most teams. It starts from the top. Owner Shad Khan put fish-bowl windows in some business-side offices after buying the team and even took down walls for many others to open up that side of the building.

There are no security guards in the halls of their facility, which is in the bowels of the publicly owned stadium. Don't laugh. There used to be. I know. They used to stop me in my tracks when I covered the team during the Tom Coughlin era.

Then again, what are you closing off when few are paying attention? The Jaguars might be the most non-descript franchise in the NFL. Take away running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who is a free agent and likely won't be back, and I dare anyone outside of Jacksonville to name a player of note. Naming five is so tough it could be a Final Jeopardy question.

Khan's mustache is as big a star as any player on the roster.

Even when the franchise was winning under Coughlin, coming twice within a game of the Super Bowl, the attention didn't come like it should have. Stars were overlooked, the city was mocked and the players spurned at Pro Bowl time. But now, coming off 2-14 and 4-12 seasons, Caldwell is trying to lead a franchise back from a perceived abyss.

This is a franchise known more for turning down Tim Tebow -- he actually turned them down -- and for the tarps in the stadium more than anything that happens on the field, which has been, quite honestly, a mess. Years and years of failed draft picks, including first-round bust after first-round bust, have left Caldwell with one of the biggest challenges in the league.

"Everybody says this is a rebuild," Caldwell said. "I say it's simply a build."

From the ground up
I came here to spend time with Caldwell as he readies for his second offseason of leading the process to turn the Jaguars into a contender. He has given me access to a morning with him as he works through his normal day -- aside from my pesky interruptions.

It is an inside glimpse into what and how the process works for the Jaguars as they ready for what could be Caldwell's biggest offseason yet. Last year, his first, was a honeymoon of sorts.

There was excitement. There was change. And Caldwell responded by a having a good draft, one that will be the foundation for any turnaround. But the dearth of veteran talent showed up weekly, and the Jaguars finished with just the four victories.

That is impressive when you consider the talent base. I recently posed this question to a league personnel man: How many Jaguars players would start for the Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks?

Two was the reply, and that counts 2013 first-round pick Luke Joeckel, who missed much of his first season with a broken ankle.

That's the challenge ahead for Caldwell. But there are pluses. The Jaguars have roughly $50 million in cap room, and could have even more if they re-do some deals like that of tight end Marcedes Lewis (cap figure of $8.25 million) and release a player or two.

Caldwell sat at a desk facing a huge projection screen in his dark office. The desk is in the middle of the office, with another smaller screen on the other side of the room in front of two black, comfortable-looking chairs. Caldwell said he watches tape on both screens, but when he's writing detailed reports it's at his desk, even if the black, leather chairs look much more inviting.

As Caldwell worked, music played from his iPad. On this day, it's country music. But his taste varies.

"Sometimes it's '80s rock," he said. "Van Halen. Quiet Riot. Iron Maiden."

Bradley also loves the music piping from his office, and plays it loudly on the team's practice field, something he learned from Pete Carroll when he was with Seattle.

"We like the lively culture," Caldwell said.

Yeah, but it's dark and dreary in his office, I told him.

"No windows," Caldwell said. "That doesn't help."

An open-minded perspective
Caldwell came to the Jaguars after stints with the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons. He credits Bill Polian and Thomas Dimitroff, the two general managers he worked under, for much of his thinking.

Polian is considered one of the brightest football minds ever. And Dimitroff turned the Falcons from an also-ran into a contender in a short time. They are two different personalities -- opposites, in fact -- but both are considered top-level talent evaluators.

The openness clearly comes from Dimitroff since Polian was so paranoid that he actually prevented reporters from bringing notepads to training-camp practices.

"Thomas is where I get a lot of my influences," Caldwell said.

It was while working for Dimitroff that Caldwell first interviewed for the Jacksonville job. At the time, Khan asked him a handful of personnel questions. One of those questions was who Caldwell thought would be the first pick of the 2013 NFL Draft.

"I remember telling him it would be Luke Joeckel," Caldwell said. "I was wrong, but we got him with the second pick."

Caldwell said he first saw Joeckel when he spent a day at Texas A&M for the Falcons in 2012. After watching the tape, watching the team practice, talking to coaches and others working at the school, he called Rams general manager Les Snead, who previously worked with the Falcons and Caldwell.

"I think I just saw the first pick in the draft," Caldwell said he told Snead. "It's Joeckel."

Snead: "You might be right."

"I was in Atlanta then and we weren't going to be picking that high, so we really didn't have a shot," Caldwell said. "But then things changed."

The Jaguars hired him last January. Now he had a chance. But instead of insisting he would be the guy, Caldwell let the process play out. He let his scouts and personnel people and coaches offer their input. In the end, Joeckel was the Jaguars' highest-rated player.

They took him with the second pick of Caldwell's first draft, a cornerstone to build around, their left tackle of the future. Joeckel started the season at right tackle, but was moved to the left side when the team traded veteran Eugene Monroe to the Ravens for draft picks. In his first game on the left side, Joeckel went down with the injury, but he is expected back at 100 percent for the open of the 2014 season.

The interesting thing about the leadup to the Joeckel pick, like all of his picks and signings, is that Caldwell doesn't tell his staff which way he's leaning on players until late in the process.

"I don't want to influence coaches and scouts," Caldwell said. "I want to take in as much information as I can. That's why Gus is so good for me. We can be in a meeting and he can draw a lot out of guys. I get to take it all in. Nobody here takes anything personal -- as long as we agree to disagree. I want the feedback from the coaches. I am not going to go rogue. If I can't make a case for somebody, then maybe it's not the right decision. If I had everyone against it, it's going to be tougher to make that decision. But if I felt strongly about it, and say to them 'give me this one,' hopefully it's not a major mistake."

The Jaguars will pick third in this year's draft. But before then, there's the free-agent process to play out. Like all teams, the preparation for both is in full swing. The Jaguars got a boost in the college process when their coaches were picked to coach one of the teams at the Senior Bowl, with the Falcons coaching the other.

"We put them through a typical Jaguars week," Caldwell said. "We spent a lot of time with the players from both teams. That's a big plus. We get to interview 60 guys at the combine. We already had 110 at the Senior Bowl. So we won't need to interview those guys. One of our coaches asked if we were going to work out a player from that week later. I told him we already did. So it will allow us time for other guys.

"We spent a lot of time with the players from the other team, too, swapping some time with Thomas (Dimitroff). That's a ton of value. We got to see how the players respond to a Jaguars week. Some players came in with a ton of energy and it lasted the entire week. Some faded as the week went on. If they faded during a Senior Bowl week, what will happen for a 16-game season?"

After the Senior Bowl, Caldwell spent a lot of time on pro personnel. That process actually started in the preseason and works through the season. The advance scouts break down the UFAs and RFAs for every Jaguars opponent. And Caldwell does the same.

They then divide up the rest of the teams and come to a rating for each as to how they will fit in with the Jaguars and fill a need. Caldwell has his own ratings. They then come to a final rating on the free agents. That might not come until Wednesday of combine week when Caldwell will get a chance to crosscheck what the pro personnel department has decided.

Then it's combine week, followed by the free-agent signing period, pro days and then the draft. Plus, there's taking care of your own roster. Take Jones-Drew. Caldwell wouldn't talk specifics on Jones-Drew, but it's clear the team would like to have him back. But the price would have to right.

My thinking: If he agrees to a team-friendly deal, including a reduced role, he would be back. Knowing Jones-Drew, I doubt that happens, which means the only face of the franchise is likely moving on.

Then there's the quarterback situation. They've been searching for a franchise top-level passer since Mark Brunell left. They have used premium first-round picks on Byron Leftwich and Blaine Gabbert, and both failed to develop. So the thinking now is that Caldwell has to take a quarterback with the third pick. Chad Henne, who started most of last season, is also an unrestricted free agent.

In Indianapolis, Caldwell saw what Peyton Manning meant to the Colts. In Atlanta, he saw what Matt Ryan did for the Falcons. But he also saw Seattle win a Super Bowl less than a month ago with a third-round quarterback and a great defense.

"In today's day and age, if you can't get Peyton Manning or Matt Ryan, and they might not be available for the next 10 or 15 years, then you have to adapt and build the roster and do what's best for the organization," Caldwell said. "And if a quarterback presents itself later in the draft, you take and develop him. Having a franchise guy makes the world a lot easier, though. It can erase a lot of mistakes you make. But if you force it, you can screw it up. I don't know if we're going to find that guy, but I hope we do."

Before thinking this means the Jaguars won't pick a passer with the third pick, Caldwell still hasn't sat down and talked with any of the top quarterback prospects yet. There is a long way to go in the process. Passing on a quarterback could lead to backlash in a city that is starved for one.

"I'd rather get backlash from that than backlash from picking the wrong guy," Caldwell said.

Henne sounds like a real possibility -- if they can sign him.

"We have a lot of issues," Caldwell said. "We have a lot of places we need to get better. Chad did a pretty admirable job for us. He was .500 in his last eight games. It was his first year in the system. Just because he's a veteran doesn't mean you know the system. He has good leadership skills. Guys rallied around him. Our feeling is if we can upgrade the offensive line, get some playmakers, improve the running game, I think he can sustain us and be our starter until somebody presents himself."

A scout's eye
That somebody could be sitting at his fingertips. All Caldwell has to do is hit a few buttons on his laptop and up comes a quarterback to evaluate on the big screen. While we sat in his office, we watched one passer and several other players on the big screen. I told him I would not identify the players. As we watched the videos, Caldwell oozed scout, tracing back to his roots coming up through the ranks.

Among the things he said as we watched:

"He's a hard charger."

"He plays his ass off."

"He has a ruggedness about him."

"Watch those feet."

Watching tape with a tried-and-true personnel man was a treat for me. I soaked it all in, the running of the tape back and forth as Caldwell pointed out little details, the clear highlight of our morning for me.

Even though the Jaguars have an analytics department -- and Tony Khan, the son's owner, is a big part of it -- Caldwell, like so many scouts, remains a tape guy mostly for evaluation.

"The analytics are good for comparatives," Caldwell said. "Ideally we have to like a player. And then use the analytics. It can bring something to light because our eyes are wrong some of the time. It's good for checks and balances."

So can analytics tell you if a player can play?

"No," Caldwell said.

A short while later, Bradley popped his head into the office. As usual, he came with a ton of energy, part of what has made him such an attractive option for the Jaguars.

"What's going on?" Bradley said.

"Just trying to figure who you are signing and who you are drafting," I said.

Bradley, like Caldwell said, is a big part of the evaluation process. He is a big-time tape watcher and his input is something Caldwell wants and needs.

"We look for marriages when we draft a player," Caldwell said. "We want the coaches, the staff and myself to all be on board."

Caldwell's openness does have some limitations, and his covered-up draft board that fills one wall of his office is proof of that. It shows his rankings of the draft class. Bradley has seen it. Some others have as well. But the reason he keeps it covered is because he doesn't want the team's draft board, which is in the draft room, to be impacted by his rankings.

"Again, I don't want to influence anybody," he said. "I am not overly paranoid. Guys have seen it. It's just that I want guys to make their own evaluations. It's like when you go to a movie. And somebody gives it a great recommendation. You go in expecting it to be a certain level. When it isn't, you are disappointed. You don't have a tendency to give it its due. So I want guys making their own assessments and then we will come to an agreement."

There are stories around the league of some general managers who have balked at the input from their staffs. I've heard where one scout was fired because he got up and challenged the general manager. That is much different than what's going on in Jacksonville.

With a ton of cap room, and the third pick in the first round, Caldwell has a chance to add some key pieces this season -- even if one doesn't turn out to be a quarterback. But there's this idea out there that the Jaguars will be following the Seattle plan of building a roster, then finding a quarterback, in large part because Bradley came from Seattle. Caldwell would love it to be the other way if possible, but he is open to the Seattle way.

Expect Jacksonville to be more active in free agency this time around than it was in his first season. Like so many teams, the Jaguars need a premier pass rusher. But don't expect a big-money deal right off the bat.

"Just because you have it doesn't mean you spend it," Caldwell said. "It's not the wise thing to do. Historically, teams that spend the most don't win the Super Bowls. You build through the draft and supplement through free agency the best you can. When you get close, then you can go out and bring in the missing pieces in free agency."

The Jaguars, as you know, are not close. That's why this is a huge year for Caldwell. He has to make his mark on building the roster, which is the worst in the league right now.

"There is so much to do," Caldwell said as we walked to lunch, again leaving the door open behind us. "Last year, we had no margin for error. The guys we drafted had to start. Ideally we can get some guys in free agency to help and then the draft picks won't have to come in and start right away. That's where we were last year. We had no choice. Now we have some, but we're far from where we need to be."

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JVM: Jacksonville Jaguars
Michael Renner | February 25, 2014

Here are 2013′s most undervalued and overvalued Jacksonville Jaguars:

(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)

Undervalued

1. Alan Ball, Cornerback

One of the reasons for Jacksonville’s late season turnaround was the improved play of the secondary and one Alan Ball. Ball’s only real starting experience in his first six seasons in the NFL came with Dallas in 2010 where he started at safety for 16 games. Since then he bounced around as a backup corner in Dallas and Houston before settling in with Jacksonville last year. In 2013, Ball played 1,020 of a possible 1,069 snaps and had a +7.5 overall grade. Playing almost exclusively right cornerback, Ball had the 17th-best Yards per Coverage Snap figure of any corner at 1.01. His two-year, $2m contract signed last offseason looks like a steal now.

2013 Cap Hit: $770k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $4.5m
Value Differential: +$3.7m

2. Will Blackmon, Cornerback

The corners were certainly not the weak link on the Jaguars’ defense last season. After spending 2012 in the Arena Football League, Will Blackmon showed that he deserved to be in the NFL. His +7.2 overall grade was 22nd among corners and he did the bulk of his production against the run. The eight-year veteran had the seventh-best Run Stop Percentage among cornerbacks at 2.9 and the second-best run defense grade at +5.1. Signed to just the veteran minimum last offseason, Blackmon was a tremendous value on a team where value was hard to come by.

2013 Cap Hit: $555k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $3.3m
Value Differential: +$2.7m

3. Mike Harris, Cornerback

And yes, another cornerback. Harris served as the Jags’ primary slot corner in 2013, playing 89% of his 414 snaps at the position and finished with coverage and run defense grades right around the midline (+0.8 and +0.9, respectively). Though those numbers weren’t all that exciting and his 87th-ranked 1.59 Yards per Cover Snap (that fell from his Top-15 0.96 as a rookie) even less so, costing the team only $400k to fill the role was a number he made good on. If anyone needs help with securing value corners, a call to Jacksonville would be a good place to start.

2013 Cap Hit: $400k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $1.9m
Value Differential: +$1.5m

4. Dwayne Gratz, CB– Cap: $400k, JVM: $1.7m, Value Differential: +$1.3m

5. Ryan Davis, DT – Cap: $300k, JVM: $1.4m, Value Differential: +$1.0m

6. Cecil Shorts, WR – Cap: $400k, JVM: $1.4m, Value Differential: +$900k

7. Andre Branch, DE – Cap: $300k, JVM: $800k, Value Differential: +$500k

8. John Lotulelei, OLB – Cap: $300k, JVM: $800k, Value Differential: +$400k

9. Abry Jones, DL – Cap: $400k, JVM: $700k, Value Differential: +$300k

10. Sen’Derrick Marks, DT - Cap: $1.7m, JVM: 1.9m, Value Differential: +200k

Overvalued

1. Paul Posluszny, Middle Linebacker

Posluszny tops the Jaguars’ most overvalued list for the second year in a row. His cap hit was the third largest among inside linebackers and he was nowhere close to a top three middle linebacker last season. His -11.6 overall grade was 25th among starters and he failed to grade positively in any of the three major categories (run, coverage, pass rush). Posluszny had to deal with far more linemen than a typical 4-3 inside linebacker due to a weak defensive line, but he rarely was able to beat blockers at the second level. He’s still a quality player, but at $26.5m over the next three years, one has to question whether he is worth it.

2013 Cap Hit: $8.5m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $700k
Value Differential: -$7.8m

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Halfback

Jones-Drew is the prime example of why teams are weary when doling out large deals to running backs after their rookie contract. In 2009, the Jaguars’ halfback signed a five-year, $31m deal and now we’ve rated him as the Jags’ second most overvalued player for two years running. It’s not through any fault of his own, running backs are severely injury-prone and skills can diminish seemingly overnight (see: Ray Rice). Jones-Drew still came away from last season with a +3.9 grade, thanks in large part to his +6.5 pass blocking grade, but there were 26 other running backs that ranked higher. That kind of production can be had for far cheaper than the seventh-highest cap hit at the position.

2013 Cap Hit: $6.8m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $1.1m
Value Differential: -$5.7m

3. Eugene Monroe, Left Tackle*

This one comes with a fairly large asterisk. On October 1st Monroe was traded to the Baltimore Ravens for fourth- and fifth-round picks in the 2014 draft, but the Jaguars were still on the hook for $6.6m of the left tackle’s $7.1m cap hit for the season. Monroe’s overall value for the season was $5.4m, but he did $4.1m of that with Baltimore. The former first-round pick was floundering in Jacksonville before flourishing in Baltimore. Through the first four weeks of the season he had a grade of -3.6 and then he was traded and finished the last 11 games with a grade of +24.0. It seems ludicrous that a team would give up a left tackle as talented as Monroe, but the Jaguars must have known their chances of resigning Monroe at the end of the season were unlikely and they did what they had to do.

2013 Cap Hit: $6.6m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $1.4m
Value Differential: -$5.2m

4. Mercedes Lewis, TE – Cap: $5.8m, JVM: $1m, Value Differential: -$4.7m

5. Uche Nwaneri, RG– Cap: $5.9m, JVM: $1.3m, Value Differential: $-4.5m

6. Luke Joeckel, RT* – Cap: $5.8m, JVM: $2.1m, Value Differential: -$3.6m

7. Dwight Lowery, S – Cap: $3.9m, JVM: $219k, Value Differential: -$3.7m

8. Tyson Alualu, DE – Cap: $3.6m, JVM: $615k, Value Differential: -$3m

9. Chad Henne, QB – Cap: $4.7m, JVM: $1.8m, Value Differential: -$2.8m

10. Blaine Gabbert, QB – Cap: $3.3m, JVM: $540k, Value Differential: -$2.7m



Summary – Team Value Differential: -$40.5m

Overpaying mediocre talent and getting little production from players on rookie contracts is a recipe for disaster and that is where Jacksonville’s large $40.5m deficit comes from. None of the 15 Jaguars with cap hits $2m or greater were deemed to have outplayed their contracts. The good news is quite a few of those contracts are waivable and there is more than enough cap room to replace them with capable players. The bad news is that they haven’t drafted a legitimate impact player since Eugene Monroe back in 2009. To improve on their team value differential next season they’ll need players on their rookie contracts to emerge in a big way.

Quote (Hako @ Feb 27 2014 01:19am)

Quote (Terps @ Feb 26 2014 11:11pm)

Almost lol'd at Monroe being overvalued (sour grapes)

then saw it was performance per cap hit.

Quote

JACKSONVILLE – Luke Joeckel’s long, long wait is nearly half over.

But while that’s a good thing, and while the Jaguars’ left tackle has progressed and used the last four months productively, it doesn’t make the waiting any easier.

This not-playing-football stuff, after all, just ain’t Joeckel’s thing.

“I’m already feeling ready to get back into a season – I’m definitely ready to get back into it,” Joeckel said Tuesday after a morning workout at EverBank Field.

Joeckel, the No. 2 overall selection by the Jaguars in the 2013 NFL Draft from Texas A&M, works out at EverBank Field pretty much daily, continuing the rehabilitation process to return from a broken right ankle that ended his rookie season after four games and a quarter.

He’s progressing well, he said Tuesday, and while there’s no specific return date, he said he expects to participate in organized team activities and absolutely be ready by the time training camp begins.

“I feel good,” he said. “I’m coming back strong. Sitting around for 12 weeks and not being able to block – that was my offseason, so now I’m trying to get back training and trying to get ready for OTAs.”

Joeckel, who sustained his injury in a Week 5 loss at St. Louis, spent the rest of the season rehabilitating. He had his walking boot removed the day after the regular season, and began running on gravity equipment two weeks ago. He expects to be able to run in a full weight-bearing capacity soon.

“We’ve been progressing, and taking a higher percentage of my body weight,” Joeckel said. “We’re not rushed, and we’re able to do it the right way rather than trying to rush back into anything.”

That’s a positive of his injury – that the timing has allowed him to progress in such a way to return at full strength. But Joeckel said Tuesday his competitive side has a tough time seeing his rookie season in a positive light.

“I guess my career couldn’t have started off any worse,” said Joeckel, whose last previous injury was to his left ankle as a sophomore at Arlington (Texas) High School and who started all 39 games at Texas A&M. “You go into it with a ton of excitement and nervousness. No one ever wants their season ended short by an injury, especially your rookie year. This might be the worst it can get. Now, I’ve just got to get better. It’s only going to get better from here.”

Joeckel said he spent the weekend watching the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, and said he has stayed in contact with friends and former teammates such as left tackle Jake Matthews, quarterback Johnny Manziel and wide receiver Mike Evans.

“They all did a great job,” Joeckel said. “It’s crazy not having to go through that process. It’s nice because I can just work out to be a better football player instead of doing the training for the 40-yard dash and all of that kind of stuff.”

As he does that work, he does so looking forward to not only his first full NFL season, but his first full offseason – and his first extended time working at his natural position, left tackle.

Joeckel, who played left tackle exclusively at Texas A&M, worked at right tackle through last offseason and training camp while veteran Eugene Monroe remained on the left side. Joeckel then spent the first four games there, moving to the left side when the Jaguars traded Monroe to the Baltimore Ravens on October 2.

“It was night and day,” Joeckel said. “Just getting back to that left tackle spot, that’s what I’ve played for five or six years straight. I tried to get as comfortable as I could at right tackle, but going against the talent I was going against in the first few games at that position was tough.

“But getting back on that side, my set felt so much cleaner. I felt quicker.”

Joeckel started against the St. Louis Rams in Week 5, and Jaguars General Manager David Caldwell has said since the end of the season Joeckel played well during that game while playing Rams defensive end Robert Quinn, one of the league’s premier pass rushers. But near the end of the first quarter, on the 15th offensive play, Joeckel sustained the injury that ended his season.

“It was a serious tease, pretty much,” Joeckel said with a laugh. “I went from so high to so low. It was way too short, so I’m not sure about anything, but I definitely gained a little confidence.”

His goal now: keep gaining that confidence. While Jaguars players under the rules of the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement can’t meet or talk football with coaches until April 21, Joeckel said he and other offensive linemen have met to watch film. He also has been using his rehabilitation time to gain strength – all with the objective of reliving as little of the rookie experience as possible.

“I sure hope not,” he said. “I don’t ever want to feel like that again – the lostness and not knowing what was going on. I’ll take the experience of it; even though it was less than five games it was important. But I don’t want to take that rookie mindset. I want to be a little more vocal.

“Playing a full season would have helped, but I’ll try to take as much from those five games as I can. I’m pretty confident going in.”

Quote (WrathOfGod1337 @ Feb 27 2014 08:10pm)

At least the poor play by Eric Fisher his rookie year can make you feel a little better by Joeckel.

The Elam vs Cyprien race is still on though. Elam should be back to playing SS, so the two should actually be comparable next year.