Quote (Falcon_A @ Oct 26 2012 09:00am)
If there's a favorite team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, it probably would be the Houston Texans. They have the best record in the conference at 6-1, they just waxed the next-best team (Baltimore) 43-13, and their only loss came at the hands of an NFC squad (Green Bay). Is there any reason to think they won't be hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy in January? Actually, yes.
The Texans are not the highest-ranked AFC team in Football Outsiders' latest rankings. That honor goes to the Denver Broncos, perhaps the league's most underrated team.
The Broncos are only 3-3, but that mediocre record is not an accurate reflection of this team's performance this year. Their three losses have come against three division leaders (Houston, Atlanta and New England) with a combined record of 16-4. And it's not as if the teams Denver has beaten are pushovers, either. Pittsburgh, San Diego and Oakland have a combined record of 8-10. All in all, Denver's opponents so far this season have gone 24-14. In that light, a 3-3 record is quite an achievement.
Denver has had the misfortune to play so many good teams so early, but its luck concerning bouncing balls has been even worse. Our research has shown that avoiding and forcing fumbles are definite skills, but actually falling on those balls is mostly a matter of luck. Denver's opponents have fumbled 10 times, but lost only four balls. Even more amazing, the Broncos have fumbled nine times, and their opponents have recovered all of them. All together, the Broncos have recovered only four of 19 total fumbles this season. That kind of bad luck is bound to turn around soon.
The good news for Denver is that their schedule is much easier in the future. The 10 teams left on their slate are a collective 21-42, and only one of them (Baltimore) currently has a winning record. Nothing is certain in the NFL, but it's hard to see Denver missing out on a playoff berth.
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Peyton Manning has already made a mark in Denver.
What makes Denver such a quality team? Not surprisingly, it all starts with Peyton Manning. The veteran quarterback ranks fourth in DYAR and first in DVOA among quarterbacks this season (further information on FO's statistics available here), and also leads the league in ESPN's Total QBR. Manning is doing what all great quarterbacks are supposed to do: make his teammates better. Last year, no Denver wideout made the top 50 rankings at FO. This year, the team has three receivers in the top 30.
It's not terribly surprising to see a Peyton Manning-led offense playing well. It's a little more shocking to see how well the Denver defense is playing, especially compared to its conventional statistics. The Broncos rank 11th in yards per game, 10th against the pass, 18th against the rush and 17th in scoring. However, they rank sixth in DVOA. The biggest reason for that difference once again comes down to scheduling. Denver has played some of the league's best offenses in New England, Houston, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. That's going to throw the Broncos' conventional numbers out of whack, but DVOA adjusts for quality of competition and bumps Denver up several slots.
The Denver defense ranks highly in DVOA not so much because they do any one thing at an elite level, but because they have no real weaknesses for opponents to exploit. The unit ranks ninth in rushing DVOA and 10th against the pass. A quick look at our front seven tables shows that they don't get a lot of stuffs, and they do a good job preventing long runs, but they're not terribly far from average in either category. They are sixth in sack rate, but they're not particularly strong or weak in coverage against any category of receiver (except in covering running backs, where they rank fourth). The one thing Denver does do better than most teams is prevent the long ball. They've given up only 16 receptions for 20 yards or more this year, tied for fifth-best in the NFL.
The stars of this Denver defense are somewhat unknown. Safety Mike Adams leads the team in plays (the sum of tackles, interceptions, passes defensed and fumbles forced and recovered), but he's not in the league's top 40 in that category. Wesley Woodyard has been surprisingly effective replacing the suspended D.J. Williams as Denver's top linebacker. He's in the league's top 10 with 23 run stops (tackles on run plays that prevent meaningful yardage toward a new set of downs), nearly matching the career-high 25 he had last season.
The top playmaker, though, has unquestionably been Von Miller. As a rookie in 2011, Miller collected 11.5 sacks, but he was one-dimensional, with only eight defeats (tackles that cause a loss of yardage, turnover or third- or fourth-down stop) against the run. This year, he's even more effective against the pass, with six sacks in six games. Better yet, he has blossomed as an impact run defender. He leads the league with 10 run defeats this year, besting his rookie total with 10 games to go. Only the incomparable J.J. Watt has more total defeats (run and pass) than Miller in 2012. In any other season Miller would be a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, but Watt is virtually a lock to take that hardware home. Could Watt and the Texans defeat Miller's Broncos in a playoff game, though? That's no lock at all.