Quote (draino @ Oct 5 2012 12:58pm)
dissed
Never even saw it.
Todd McShay, Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl of Scouts Inc. provide their scouting report for the matchup between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Texas Longhorns, looking at how each team's offensive and defensive units will fare and predicting the final score.
West Virginia offense versus Texas defense
• QB Geno Smith is dissecting defenses with a rare blend of timing, accuracy and decision-making. He is taking what the coverage is giving him and spreading the ball around, with WRs Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey leading the way. While Texas is the toughest defensive challenge the Mountaineers' passing attack has faced this year, both receivers are capable of giving the Longhorns problems. Austin has the awareness to find pockets in the Longhorns' zone looks, and possesses the burst to separate when Texas tries to match up in man.
Meanwhile, Bailey facing off against cornerback Quandre Diggs on the outside is one of many matchups to keep an eye on. Diggs has the natural ability to get the better of Bailey, but double moves have given him problems in the past and the Mountaineers could test him. Plus, Bailey runs well and does a good job of selling the stop-and-go route.
In addition, Texas has played a soft zone, with Diggs giving receivers a healthy cushion. If that happens, Smith can get the ball to one of his receivers underneath, forcing the corner to make a one-on-one play. Regardless of who gets the ball, it's critical that Texas' defense -- which has suffered from sloppy tackling -- cleans up its mistakes and limits production after the catch.
• With Smith playing at a high level and the Mountaineers enjoying some favorable matchups, Texas can't let him get comfortable. Luckily for Texas, they have a decided advantage up front, especially on the edge. OLBs/DEs Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor are effective pass-rushers, though they do it in different ways; Jeffcoat is a speed-rusher, while Okafor relies on power.
Texas defensive coordinator Manny Diaz also will blitz at times, but it's important that he choose his spots well. Smith is finding his hot read before the pressure has time to get to him, and the Mountaineers' screen package is much more dangerous when the defense gets caught blitzing.
In addition, three- and four-man rushes aren't a lock to give the Mountaineers problems despite Texas' advantages up front. Smith is capable of extending plays with his feet, and West Virginia runs a lot of six-man protections that include a back for support. Shawne Alston, Ryan Clarke and Cody Clay are all big enough to anchor in pass protection. If Alston (thigh) and Clarke (leg) are unable to play because of injuries, Clay can help protect the edge.
• The Mountaineers are at an even greater disadvantage up front when it comes to the ground game. They are allowing too much leakage and there's no reason to believe that will change considering this is the best defensive front they've faced this year. With the Longhorns winning up front, an aggressive Texas linebacker corps is capable of slowing West Virginia RBs Andrew Buie and Alston, if he can return from his thigh injury.
Though the Mountaineers will have a tough time picking up yards on the ground with any kind of consistency, the potential for long runs is there. Misdirection has given Texas some problems and, again, tackling has been an issue. Plus, West Virginia gets its wide receivers involved in the ground game and motions them into the backfield to use them as decoys or hand them the ball.
Texas offense versus West Virginia defense
• West Virginia is holding teams to fewer than three yards per carry and its aggressive 3-4 scheme could give Texas' front some problems. The Mountaineers have good size up front and the three down linemen are tough to move off the ball in one-on-one situations. They will line up over the heads of center Dominic Espinosa and both tackles, making it tough to double-team them.
At the second level, West Virginia's linebackers are aggressive and fly to the ball. Plus, defensive coordinator Joe DeForest will bring pressure from different areas of the field, including the third level. DeForest's aggressive approach, combined with good defensive speed, can lead to breakdowns in blocking assignments.
• That doesn't mean the Longhorns won't have success establishing the run. Offensive coordinator Byran Harsin can use formations, blocking schemes and misdirection to amplify Texas' strengths while exploiting West Virginia's vulnerabilities. He can pack the Mountaineers in with two-TE sets, and then run power to the outside with the frontside tackle and Espinosa leading the way. Pulling the offensive linemen matches them up against the Mountaineers' undersized outside linebackers, and allows the frontside tight end to block down on the defensive end. Plus, Harsin can use spread sets to thin out how many defenders line up in the box when he runs inside.
The Longhorns will be without out their most talented running back Malcolm Brown, who will miss this game with an ankle injury. While he'll be missed, Texas has the depth and talent at the position to overcome his absence. Big running back Joe Bergeron has the power to produce between the tackles and enough lateral bounce to get outside or cut back when the defense gets sucked up inside. Talented true freshman RB Johnathan Gray isn't as big or strong as Brown and Bergeron, but he shows good balance when he runs inside and he's quicker around the corner than Bergeron. The Longhorns have increased his carries in each of the first four games, so look for him to play a bigger role with Brown out.
West Virginia also has to respect the jet sweep when WRs Marquise Goodwin or D.J. Monroe motion into the backfield -- and the threat of QB David Ash keeping the ball off the read option. Both receivers have the speed to go the distance. And though he's not nearly as explosive, Ash has enough burst to make defenses pay when they don't account for him.
• Ash should get some chances to strike deep against a reeling West Virginia secondary that has been hurt by broken coverage. Plus, he has the weapons such as WR Mike Davis to take advantage.
Ash's ability to deliver in these situations is a concern. Smith is the only FBS quarterback that has been more efficient throwing the ball than Ash, who has made considerable strides this year. However, Ash has underthrown his receivers and forced them to make tough adjustments. While they've bailed him out for the most part, he can't continue to throw the ball up for grabs in a game that is shaping up to be a shootout.
Ash should be successful finding WR Jaxon Shipley underneath when the Mountaineers play Cover 3, and should find his backs and tight ends off of play-action based on what West Virginia's defense has shown on film.
Scouts' Edge
The precision and poise Smith displays in operating Dana Holgorson's spread offense makes it tough to defend against West Virginia. However, Smith and his talented receivers should come up short. Texas not only has the athletes along the defensive front to negate the run and harass Smith more than any other defense has this year, but it also has the offense capable of sustaining long drives and limiting Smith's opportunities by keeping him on the sidelines.
Texas' ground game will keep Ash out of obvious passing situations and allow the Longhorns to sustain long scoring drives that give them a substantial edge in time of possession. In addition, Ash is playing with a great deal of confidence -- as he should be after his performance last week. He continues to take care of the football and extend drives with his feet when nothing is available downfield.
Prediction: Longhorns 38, Mountaineers 34