d2jsp
Log InRegister
d2jsp Forums > Off-Topic > Sports Coliseum > Football & Rugby > Official Insider Request Thread
Prev123425Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll
Member
Posts: 12,160
Joined: Apr 8 2007
Gold: 12,215.99
May 16 2012 04:46pm
Quote (mc408 @ May 16 2012 06:39pm)


Arizona Cardinals: Left tackle

The Cardinals came into the offseason with the idea they would get failed left tackle Levi Brown under contract at a cheaper rate, then move him to right tackle, where his dreadful pass-blocking wouldn't be quite as big a liability. Arizona had a chance to draft Iowa's Riley Reiff at No. 11 overall but instead went with Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd to help bolster a receiving corps that has been in need of a solid second option since Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston were sent packing.

We're not necessarily saying that drafting Floyd was the wrong move -- if the Cardinals felt he was the best player on their board, selecting him was the best they could have done at the spot. But in the short term, this is a team that finished 27th in Adjusted Sack Rate last season. Instead of assuring itself a solid left tackle with a high pick, Arizona is hoping it will strike gold with late-round tackle picks Bobby Massie, Senio Kelemete and Nate Potter.

One would think, especially given Kevin Kolb's shaky pocket awareness, Arizona would have pushed much harder for an option such as Demetress Bell or the injury-prone (but effective) Marcus McNeill. Instead, Brown is back at left tackle despite that he has consistently been one of the worst pass-protecting tackles in the NFL over the past few seasons. The cascade effects of that decision will leave the similarly weak Jeremy Bridges at right tackle (at least to start the season) and Kolb likely scrambling for his life again. It's likely that Kolb isn't going to be the franchise quarterback the Cardinals hoped he was when they acquired him -- but by declining to make even the slightest move toward masking his greatest weakness, the Cardinals have likely set themselves up for another long season along the offensive line.

St. Louis Rams: Waiting for talent to emerge

As a result of the Robert Griffin III trade and some aggressive moves in free agency, the Rams have put themselves in a position in which improved offensive line play, better receivers and some growth from Robert Quinn could put them on the path to respectability. They signed former Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan, who allowed the fewest yards per pass of any starter by our game-charting statistics last year. They also reeled in former Packers center Scott Wells to help right the ship in the middle of their line after Jason Brown was surprisingly poor last season.

So while they've attacked their main holes aggressively, they now desperately need to see results. The Rams have four receivers under contract that they've drafted in the first four rounds of the past two drafts, as well as Danario Alexander, Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson and free-agent rebound candidate Steve Smith. The reshuffled offensive line will be given one more chance to prove that Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith can be an effective tackle combination. Finnegan and fellow free-agent signings Jo-Lonn Dunbar and Kendall Langford will join up with first-round pick Michael Brockers to help solidify a run defense that finished 29th in DVOA in 2011. They will have extra first-round picks from the Redskins in each of the next two drafts.

This is a team that spent the offseason patching its holes very efficiently. This season will be about seeing which of those patches are temporary and which are long-term solutions.

San Francisco 49ers: Veteran defensive depth

When a 13-3 team returns 19 of 22 starters the following season, it's going to be tough to find holes on the roster. That's especially the case when the new starters are likely upgrades over their predecessors. Aldon Smith began last season as a situational pass-rusher, but by season's end it was clear he should be starting over Parys Haralson at right outside linebacker. Regardless of whether Randy Moss or Mario Manningham starts across from Michael Crabtree, either would be an improvement over the five-headed monster who did so last year. Even at right guard, where the 49ers will have a training camp battle to see whether Alex Boone or Daniel Kilgore will join the starting lineup, the 49ers are confident either one would be an upgrade over Chilo Rachal, who they allowed to walk in free agency.

The only real limitation of San Francisco's roster at the moment is a stunning lack of experience on its defensive bench, mostly at defensive line and in the secondary. I say "stunning" because, according to Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost (AGL) metric, the 49ers' defense was the healthiest in the league last season, a feat it knows it won't repeat in 2012.

Along the line, the primary backups are Ricky Jean Francois, Demarcus Dobbs and Ian Williams. Dobbs played mostly on special teams last season, and Williams primarily didn't play, so Jean-Francois' two career starts easily make him the most experienced of the three.

At cornerback, starters Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown have played a combined 165 games in their careers, but Chris Culliver -- highly regarded as he might be -- is still only a second-year nickel cornerback. After Culliver, the depth chart concludes with 24-year-old Tramaine Brock (14 games played in two years) and Perrish Cox, who will be nearly two years removed from his last NFL game by the time the 2012 season starts.

The depth issue is most glaring at safety. After choosing to not re-sign both backups (Reggie Smith and Madieu Williams), San Francisco is left with a career special-teams player (C.J. Spillman) and a sixth-round rookie (Trenton Richardson) behind starters Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner.

So what will the 49ers do about this? The most likely answer is, "not much." Preferring to build through the draft and undrafted rookie free agency, the youth on their defensive bench is by design. Furthermore, much of the inexperience detailed here involves promising young defenders such as Culliver, Dobbs and Richardson, so the problem is more one of timing than talent. Namely, an increase in defensive injuries to starters could force these inexperienced reserves into meaningful action before they're ready, and that could derail San Francisco's title hopes.

Seattle Seahawks: Offensive line growth

The Seahawks, like the Rams, worked hard on addressing their issues this offseason. Pass rush was a problem behind Chris Clemons, so Seattle brought in West Virginia defensive end Bruce Irvin with their first-round pick. The Tarvaris Jackson/Charlie Whitehurst combo held the Seahawks' offense back in 2011, but general manager John Schneider brought in a pair of solutions to remedy that. Green Bay backup Matt Flynn will presumably keep the seat warm, and Wisconsin quarterback Russell Wilson, who had such an amazing Lewin Career Forecast projection that we had to mention him with an asterisk, will be groomed for the long-term role.

To make the jump to an elite offense, though, the Seahawks will need some better blocking from their offensive line. They have a quartet of highly drafted players slated to start in Russell Okung, Max Unger, James Carpenter and John Moffit. Despite that, they finished 24th in Adjusted Sack Rate and 19th in Adjusted Line Yards. There were certainly high points on the line, but as a whole it was still a bit inconsistent. Carpenter, in particular, did not show enough in the eyes of our offensive line guru, Ben Muth. Additionally, they released Robert Gallery this offseason, and the left guard spot is currently slated to be a competition between career backup Paul McQuistan, Bears castoff Frank Omiyale and Cardinals washout Deuce Lutui.

The Seahawks have done much to make themselves a threat to San Francisco this offseason, but just how far they'll ultimately go this year probably depends solely on what they get out of their offensive line.
Member
Posts: 55,838
Joined: Aug 7 2007
Gold: 6,313.21
May 16 2012 05:20pm
Was going to wait and just do all of them at once, after they were all posted.



AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Offensive tackle, wide receiver
For the most part, the Bills did a superlative job of improving their team this offseason. The defensive line got the biggest overhaul with the signing of defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, but general manager Buddy Nix also retained key offensive contributors like wide receiver Steve Johnson and unheralded-but-effective starting tight end Scott Chandler. The biggest holes heading into the draft were at left tackle and wide receiver, and the Bills addressed both spots on Day 2 of the draft.

There are still concerns, however.

Buffalo spent a third-round pick on NC State's T.J. Graham, a receiver whom many draft analysts saw as a late-round pick. Todd McShay called Graham one of the more underrated receivers in the draft, but said he didn't expect the Wolfpack receiver to come off the board until the fifth or sixth round. Graham may yet prove his doubters wrong, but it would be premature to simply pencil him in opposite Johnson and assume he will produce right away. More likely, Graham will be spoon-fed the offense, and Chan Gailey will mostly use Graham's blazing speed in spread packages to try and get more space for Johnson, Donald Jones and David Nelson to work with. Graham also figures to contribute right out of the gate as a punt returner.

The Bills never really acted as if they were interested in re-signing left tackle Demetress Bell, despite him anchoring a line that gave up only 23 sacks and led the league in adjusted sack rate. Some of that indifference can be attributed to the belief that Gailey's scheme and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's quick trigger were more responsible for the low sack numbers than anything Bell did.

Chris Hairston, a 2011 fourth-rounder, held up well in limited action, but it seemed obvious that the team would select some competition for Hairston. The Bills netted one of the big steals of the draft when it plucked Georgia's Cordy Glenn off the board in the second round. Problem solved? Not necessarily. Glenn played all over the line in college, and there is real concern that he doesn't have the foot speed to be an upper-tier blindside protector at the NFL level. Nix considers Glenn to be very similar to former Chargers standout Marcus McNeill, though, and obviously the team would be thrilled if that comparison holds up.



Miami Dolphins: Wide receiver
While there is something to be said for subtracting good players now and then for the sake of team chemistry, there is even more to be said for not putting your remaining talent in a position to fail. The Dolphins do have some decent pieces to work with, but their skill position talent leaves something to be desired.

Brian Hartline wasn't good last season, but he was very efficient in 2010, boasting a 21.9 percent DVOA and providing a vertical dimension to the offense. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average metric, explained here.) Davone Bess is a natural slot receiver who, according to Football Outsiders similarity scores, compares favorably over the past three seasons to the early years of Ricky Proehl, Brian Blades and Wayne Chrebet. When paired up with a legitimate No. 1 receiver, both Hartline and Bess can be part of an efficient, if unspectacular, passing attack.

But by trading away Brandon Marshall for pennies on the dollar and not reeling in a top receiver prospect in the draft, general manager Jeff Ireland and head coach Joe Philbin could well be invoking the Peter Principle, pushing both receivers into roles in which they can't succeed. Maybe Clyde Gates will provide enough room with his speed to let Hartline and Bess operate, but that's asking a lot from a guy who did very little as a rookie.

What makes all of this worse is that Miami just drafted Ryan Tannehill, and there will be pressure from both the owner and the fans to get their shiny new toy on the field as soon as possible. Two issues there: Tannehill is a raw prospect and would benefit from time on the bench, as well the security of, say, a Brandon Marshall to throw to when he does get on the field. Instead, Miami is setting itself up for a potential repeat of the Blaine Gabbert show that ran further up I-95 last year, throwing out an unprepared rookie and teaming him with overmatched skill position personnel.



New England Patriots: Cornerback
Traditionally, Bill Belichick defenses have taken away what an offense does best, forcing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators out of their comfort zones and making role players have to step up. That all went out the window last year, as New England's pass defense DVOA against No. 1 receivers was an eye-popping 43.9 percent, easily the worst mark in the league. In the first two weeks alone, Patriots corners surrendered 17 receptions for 311 yards and two touchdowns to the combination of Marshall and Vincent Jackson, and things never got much better. New England didn't pursue any of the top-tier cornerbacks in free agency, opting instead to upgrade the nickel and dime packages by signing veteran Will Allen and Jets castoff Marquice Cole to one-year deals.

When the draft rolled around, New England focused on improving the front seven, betting on a better pass rush to help the secondary, while waiting until the seventh round to add a corner in Nebraska's Alfonzo Dennard. Dennard was a highly touted player who plummeted in the draft due to the always-toxic combination of a bad Senior Bowl and a felony arrest for assaulting a police officer. He's the same kind of low-risk, high-reward move that the Pats have been making for a long time. Those gambles produced Corey Dillon and Randy Moss … but lately they've also yielded Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth.

If there is to be improvement, it's going to have to come from within. Both Devin McCourty and Ras-I Dowling have the potential to be effective players in the Belichick system. McCourty was terrific as a rookie in 2010, but struggled mightily last year when asked to play more press coverage. By the end of the season he was playing free safety, though all indications are that McCourty will return to man one of the starting cornerback spots. Ideally, Dowling will be starting on the other side. That will require him to stay healthy, something that Dowling has been almost comically inept at. The former Virginia standout has suffered through knee injuries, ankle injuries, hamstring injuries and hip injuries in the last two years. Any blueprint that requires Dowling to be a major contributor needs a Plan B in place.



New York Jets: Offensive tackle, safety
One of the biggest individual winners over the draft weekend was Wayne Hunter, New York's embattled right tackle, who watched seven rounds come and go without the Jets adding his successor. Hunter was among the worst starting linemen in football in 2011, surrendering 8.5 sacks and committing 11 penalties in his first year as a full-time replacement for the retired Damien Woody. Neither head coach Rex Ryan nor new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano has been any more than lukewarm in their endorsements, with Ryan suggesting that Hunter was the right tackle "for now," while Sparano has indicated there will be an open competition. Thanks to the team's inaction during free agency and on draft day, there aren't really any other viable choices.

Ideally, former second-round pick Vladimir Ducasse would step up and take the job, but there is absolutely no reason to expect him to do so. Ducasse has been non-competitive in training camp for two years running, and has failed when pressed into service as a reserve. The fact that the Jets opted to guarantee Hunter's base salary in 2012 rather than simply releasing him speaks volumes as to their lack of confidence in Ducasse. The only other options on the roster are Austin Howard and Dennis Landolt. Howard was signed off the Ravens' practice squad; he started one game with the Eagles during his rookie season and played in three others. That's more game experience than Landolt, who has done stints on the practice squad with four different teams but has yet to be promoted to an active roster.

The other potential sore spot is at safety. Eric Smith was exposed in his first season as a starting player, while Jim Leonhard finished the season on IR for the second year in a row. The Jets did sign LaRon Landry to a one-year, $3.5 million deal, but given both his injury history and his current condition -- several teams passed on Landry in free agency after checking out his Achilles tendon -- and you have a very iffy solution. Even if Landry holds up for all 16 games, he's more of a box player than a coverage guy, and what Ryan needs more than anything is someone who can help limit Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez twice a year. Leonhard remains unsigned and might return, depending on how quickly he heals from his torn right patellar tendon and how much competition there is for his services.

The Jets added a pair of safeties on Day 3 of the draft, selecting Wake Forest's Josh Bush and South Carolina's Antonio Allen, either of whom could push for playing time with a strong performance in training camp.
Member
Posts: 55,838
Joined: Aug 7 2007
Gold: 6,313.21
May 16 2012 05:20pm
AFC West


Denver Broncos: Linebacker
Since the pre-free-agency installment of this series, the Broncos signed Peyton Manning, drastically resetting their short-term expectations. In that installment, we highlighted the need for youth and quality at cornerback and safety. Since then, they've added Tracy Porter to play cornerback opposite Champ Bailey, as well as Mike Adams, a competent starting safety. Porter and Adams should be upgrades on the unsigned Andre' Goodman and the now-retired Brian Dawkins, respectively.

The Broncos' 24th-ranked pass defense's biggest problem, though, was against running backs: They allowed a 26.4 percent DVOA on passes to running backs, which placed them 30th in the NFL. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average metric, explained here.) It wasn't just against the pass where the linebackers seemed to struggle, though, as the Broncos were 25th in the league in our second level yards statistic, which measures how many opponent runs gain 5-10 yards.

The Broncos chose to re-sign Joe Mays, who started at middle linebacker, and Wesley Woodyard, who played more on passing downs. But since D.J. Williams is aging and Von Miller is a pass-rush specialist, the Broncos' linebacking corps is likely to be about as good as it was in 2011. That may not be good enough to get where Denver wants to go.



Kansas City Chiefs: An improved Matt Cassel
Since our prior column, the Chiefs chose to keep Dwayne Bowe, while letting cornerback Brandon Carr depart in free agency and signed former Raider Stanford Routt, to take Carr's place. Routt led the league in defensive pass interference penalties in 2011, but had good numbers, according to our game charting project and was clearly the Raiders' best cornerback. Meanwhile, the recoveries from injury of Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry all appear to be on schedule.

With Bowe still in the fold and Charles and Moeaki returning, plus the addition of Eric Winston at right tackle and guard Jeff Allen in the second round, the Chiefs should be poised to be much better on offense than they were in 2011, when they ranked 25th in passing and 30th in rushing by DVOA. The magnitude of that improvement will depend on Cassel playing better than he did in 2011.

Cassel has been a well-below-average quarterback in two of his three seasons with the Chiefs, ranking 39th in 2011 and 37th in 2009 by DVOA. He's performed better when the offensive personnel around him has been better, which barring injury, it should be this coming season. If the Chiefs struggle offensively again in 2012, an upgrade at quarterback will become a high priority.



Oakland Raiders: Overall depth
While we highlighted linebacker as the Raiders' biggest need a couple of months ago, it appeared that every position save perhaps quarterback and wide receiver could use better depth. Injury attrition was a big problem in 2011, and the Raiders' lack of depth was only exacerbated this offseason by the salary cap problems that led to the release of Routt, tight end Kevin Boss and linebacker/defensive end Kamerion Wimbley. To top it off, their first pick in April's NFL draft was a third-round compensatory selection, thanks to the Carson Palmer trade, a 2011 draft-day trade and their selection of quarterback Terrelle Pryor in last year's supplemental draft.

The problem exists throughout the roster. With Michael Bush gone, injury-prone Darren McFadden's top backup is Mike Goodson, a forgotten man in Carolina in 2011. Brandon Myers is the starting tight end almost by default, and there is no other tight end on the roster with more than one year of NFL experience. Stefen Wisniewski was moved from guard to center, and there is no obvious backup if he goes down.

With Wimbley gone, the Raiders are relying on a full recovery from the shoulder injury that cost defensive end Matt Shaughnessy most of last season. If he returns but takes a step back from his previous level of performance, last year's 21st-ranked pass rush by adjusted sack rate may take that step back with him. Ron Bartell and Shawntae Spencer were signed to start at cornerback, but behind them are inexperienced and unproven players like DeMarcus Van Dyke, Chimdi Chekwa and Brandon Underwood. Any long-term injuries could prove disastrous for the Raiders this season.



San Diego Chargers: Defensive line
The Chargers' defensive line simply wasn't good enough in 2011. It ranked 25th in our adjusted line yards number, which measures how stout the front of a run defense is. The Chargers were fifth-worst when it came to stopping opposing running backs for a loss or no gain, and ranked dead last against the run in short-yardage situations, defined as third down, fourth down, or goal line with 1-2 yards to go.

Nose tackle is one position that should be relatively set with the re-signing of Antonio Garay. Garay is not the difference-maker in the middle of the line that Jamal Williams was, but he is much improved from the player he was when an injury to Williams first forced him into the lineup a couple of years ago. He and Cam Thomas form a decent pair at nose tackle, and should be fine if the play at defensive end is better.

The Chargers will be hoping for more from last year's first-round pick, Corey Liuget, who rarely made his impact felt as a rookie. Luis Castillo was cut and then re-signed to a one-year deal. He returns from a broken leg suffered in the opening game of last season, and if healthy, he should start over Vaughn Martin, who played in his stead. Second-round pick Kendell Reyes figures into the mix somewhere. If Liuget shows off the skills that made him a first-rounder, Castillo plays to his pre-injury form and Reyes has a better rookie year than Liuget did, this could be a much-improved group. However, that is an awful lot of ifs.
Member
Posts: 55,838
Joined: Aug 7 2007
Gold: 6,313.21
May 16 2012 05:21pm
AFC South


Houston Texans: Right tackle
In a move that raised eyebrows around the league, the Texans released the highly regarded Eric Winston prior to free agency. Winston signed with the Chiefs, becoming one of the very few players to be released and then receive a "bigger" contract than he had owed to him. With cap money hard to come by, the Texans couldn't really find many proper solutions in free agency, so Houston instead had to look to the draft. It addressed wide receiver and outside linebacker in the early rounds, and brought in some fascinating interior linemen in the middle rounds, but it doesn't have an obvious challenger to Rashad Butler at right tackle at this point.

Butler, who was actually Winston's replacement at tackle at the University of Miami as well, does have a decent pedigree as a former third-round pick with the Carolina Panthers, but he doesn't have much in the way of NFL experience. He saw some snaps in 6-OL sets in 2010 and got four starts on the left side when Duane Brown was suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs. While he wasn't a disaster replacing Brown, and may even offer a slight upgrade on Winston in pass protection, it would be a surprise if he brought quite as much to the table in the running game. The only other in-house options are 2011 seventh-rounder Derek Newton and 2012 sixth-round pick Nick Mondek, both of whom are considered projects. Since Houston is also handing over right guard to Antoine Caldwell, a new right side could lead to some awkwardness as the offensive line learns to work together in game conditions.



Indianapolis Colts: Cornerback
The Colts completely revamped their offense in the draft, landing four quality offensive pieces in quarterback Andrew Luck, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. However, a 2-14 team can't be rebuilt in one draft, and while the Colts did manage to snag a decent nose tackle prospect in Alabama's Josh Chapman, they didn't add much at all on defense. Indianapolis left the draft with no new cornerbacks and now has a logjam of unproven mediocrity at the position.

Last season, Indianapolis finished 26th in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, 27th against No. 2 wide receivers and 31st against other wide receivers. And the only change in personnel from then to now was the exile of Jacob Lacey, who played poorly enough last year to lose his starting job to the guys who are still in town.

Jerraud Powers has always done well by our metrics and will be back on the field after being bothered by a hamstring injury and shutting it down following a dislocated elbow in Week 13. Kevin Thomas, a 2012 third-round pick who has a lengthy injury history at both USC and in the pros, is the nominal second cornerback. Behind Thomas are 2011 sixth-rounder Chris Rucker and a pair of former undrafted free agents: Terrence Johnson and Brandon King. As the NFL continues to shift into a passing league, really good defenses are finding that having three credible cornerbacks is a necessity. The Colts are still stuck on one at this point.



Jacksonville Jaguars: Offensive line
The Jaguars came into the offseason with a couple of major holes that needed filling: wide receiver and defensive end. After spending their first two picks in the draft on Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon and Clemson defensive end Andre Branch, they have a lot more credibility at those positions. What they didn't address is the offensive line -- a strong run-blocking unit that did Blaine Gabbert no favors over the course of his nightmare rookie season.

Guy Whimper was one of the worst offensive tackles in the league last season -- FO's J.J. Cooper had a scathing column on his play last year -- and the only obstacle to keep him from starting at tackle again is Eben Britton, whom the Jaguars wanted to turn into a guard last season.

Will Rackley, a third-round pick in 2011, won the starting nod at left guard. He showed some flash in the running game, but also allowed 6.5 sacks and looked every bit as lost as Gabbert did in a few games. Eugene Monroe is solid at left tackle but lacks the edge speed to match the best rushers in the NFL. Brad Meester is 35, and not the type of 35 that gets you "wily old vet" mentions like Matt Birk or Jeff Saturday. This is a unit that could have used some more solidification rather than the blind hope that Britton's return from a back injury will heal all.



Tennessee Titans: Defensive end
The Titans came into the offseason, as we noted, with one of the weakest pass-rush units in the NFL. While they tinkered with the idea of signing Mario Williams, the one player who could instantly bring credibility to their rush, they abandoned that idea to pursue Peyton Manning, leaving Williams to sign with the Buffalo Bills. Forced to chase after second-tier rushers, the Titans signed Kamerion Wimbley after the Raiders set him free to atone for their salary-cap sins.

Wimbley isn't a bad player at all -- in fact, he's picked up 42.5 sacks in six years, which is pretty impressive. However, he's never played exclusively as a 4-3 defensive end, and as our own esteemed Tom Gower noted on his Total Titans blog, four of his seven sacks in 2011 came against woefully overmatched Chargers backup tackle Brandyn Dombrowski. Wimbley was a smart signing in light of the other options, but he's not exactly a sure thing.

If the Titans can get some production from either Wimbley or third-year end Derrick Morgan, that would go a long way toward shoring up their 31st-place ranking in Adjusted Sack Rate from 2011.
Member
Posts: 55,838
Joined: Aug 7 2007
Gold: 6,313.21
May 16 2012 05:22pm
AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: Offensive line
You'd think the Ravens would have learned their lesson. Just prior to last season, the potential absence of center Matt Birk and left guard Ben Grubbs meant that most of the offensive line consisted of players without positions. Michael Oher was a left tackle, a right tackle, or a right guard. Marshal Yanda was being considered at both tackle and guard on the right side. Andre Gurode could replace either Birk or Grubbs, but not both. And then, miraculously, everything fell into place with the resurrection of Bryant McKinnie's career.

Yet here we are entering 2012, and it's deja vu all over again.

This time, Grubbs is gone for good, having left for New Orleans in free agency, Birk has chosen to forego retirement but is still on the wrong side of 35 years old, McKinnie finds himself being monitored by literal "weight watchers," and Gurode hasn't been re-signed. Naturally, Baltimore's addressed this situation by moving backup tackle Jah Reid to guard, drafting Iowa State tackle Kelechi Osemele, who the Ravens envision as a guard prospect, and selecting Delaware guard Gino Gradkowski to one day replace Birk at center. Follow all that? Yeah, me neither.

Versatility is oftentimes a virtue when it comes to NFL offensive linemen. However, there's a fine line between overemphasis on versatility and having a line that embodies the phrase "jack of all trades, master of none." There's something to be said for Baltimore's straightforward situation last year, wherein everyone was playing his "natural" position, Reid came in if a tackle got hurt and Gurode entered if a guard or center was injured. Indeed, according to our offensive line metrics, the 2011 Ravens were slightly better in run-blocking and significantly better in pass-protecting than they were in 2010, when Oher was out of position at left tackle and Yanda was out of position at right tackle.

At least as it stands right now, the Ravens are one mishap away from finding themselves having to essentially rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. McKinnie, for instance, appears to be a shell of his former self and has that aforementioned, ever-present weight issue. So what happens if he needs to be replaced during the season? Sorry, the Oher-at-left-tackle ship has sailed. What happens if Birk's age catches up to him or Reid can't cut it at left guard? An out-of-position rookie in the starting lineup, that's what.

In terms of the best available free agents, there's former Chargers left tackle Marcus McNeill, whose health status is in question, and former Steelers left tackle Max Starks, whom Baltimore should be pretty familiar with. Among interior linemen, the Ravens have reportedly shown interest in former Titans right guard Jake Scott.



Cincinnati Bengals: Strong safety
It's amazing -- and completely out of character in the Mike Brown era -- that, in only one calendar year, Cincinnati's roster has gone from having huge holes to being a perennial playoff team.

To be sure, the Bengals can still use some tweaking around the edges, but for the most part they're in good shape. In February's edition of "Plugging the Holes," we listed running back and guard as glaring needs. The former was met by signing BenJarvus Green-Ellis to replace the worst workhorse running back of the past two years, Cedric Benson. The latter was met by using a first-round pick on Wisconsin guard Kevin Zeitler. Cincinnati also took Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, who will immediately fill a need at cornerback.

It's at another position in the secondary, however, where the Bengals' biggest hole remains: strong safety. Typically, when a team decides to unceremoniously release an aging team captain, it has a promising understudy already in place (see Pittsburgh's handling of Hines Ward). To replace Chris Crocker, who was allegedly let go due to durability issues even though he started all 16 games last season, Cincinnati has … Taylor Mays? San Francisco basically gave Mays away after only one season, accepting Cincinnati's seventh-round pick in 2013 for a player they drafted in the second round.

Are there in-house options at strong safety other than Mays? Sure, except that Robert Sands, Jeromy Miles and 2012 fifth-rounder George Iloka all have played even fewer NFL snaps on defense than Mays has.

On the free-agent market, the pickings are even slimmer. The best strong safeties out there include Yeremiah Bell and Melvin Bullitt. The Bengals could always bring back Crocker (who is still available), but perhaps Cincinnati is best off if it waits for training camp cuts to make its move.



Cleveland Browns: Wide receiver
According to Football Outsiders' metrics, Cleveland's weak spots in 2011 were in the running game, both on offense and on defense. Drafting Alabama running back Trent Richardson solved one of those problems. For the other, the Browns signed run-stopping defensive end Frostee Rucker, and are counting on the continued development of their two young defensive tackles, Ahtyba Rubin and Phil Taylor.

The Browns' pass defense, despite being ranked 17th last year in Football Outsiders' DVOA efficiency metric (explained here), doesn't seem that bad off, either, especially with the return of strong safety T.J. Ward from injury. Joe Haden may have had a down year -- ranking 48th among corners in defensive success rate (explained here), but there's still plenty of promise from his rookie season. More importantly, though, both Sheldon Brown (ranked 11th in yards allowed per pass) and nickel cornerback Dimitri Patterson (seventh in success rate) actually had a better season than Haden, according to our metrics.

So that leaves pass offense as the Browns' main weakness. Selecting Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden should help that category (if he beats out Colt McCoy), and means that their biggest hole is at wide receiver. Last season, Cleveland had three or more wideouts on the field 52 percent of the time, which was 12th most in the NFL, and those three receivers were almost always Greg Little, Mohamed Massaquoi and Josh Cribbs. According to our metrics, Cribbs was the most valuable of the group, but he ranked only 42nd in the NFL. As for Little and Massaquoi, they ranked 85th and 88th, respectively -- out of 90 qualifying wideouts.

To their credit, the Browns drafted Miami wide receiver Travis Benjamin in the fourth round, but his small frame is best suited for slot duty. At least that allows Cribbs to focus more on what he's best at: special teams. Nevertheless, the cupboard in-house is otherwise bare.

The best remaining options in free agency are an ancient Plaxico Burress, and three wideouts coming off knee injuries: Braylon Edwards, Mark Clayton and Mike Sims-Walker. Let's hope that, for Weeden's (or McCoy's) sake, either Little breaks out in his second season, or an unnamed receiver falls into Cleveland's lap in August.



Pittsburgh Steelers: Cornerback
Like the previous three teams, the Steelers had a limited number of holes to plug, and did a good job plugging the ones they could. At nose tackle, Chris Hoke retired (and Casey Hampton probably should), but the Steelers drafted a prototypical 3-4 space-eater in fourth-rounder Alameda Ta'amu. They released longtime inside linebacker James Farrior, but drafted Miami linebacker Sean Spence as his replacement (and maybe even Troy Polamalu's down the road).

Their other roster limitations were largely due to injury, so the situation wasn't as bad as it looked. Most importantly, a pass rush that perennially ranks among the best in the league fell to 14th in adjusted sack rate partly because it was missing James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley some of the time. Similarly, the Steelers' offensive line, which wasn't good in pass protection to begin with, was the third-most-injured offensive line in the NFL. To address that concern, the team used its first two draft picks on David DeCastro and Ohio State tackle Mike Adams.

That brings us to cornerback, a position that Pittsburgh basically ignored in the draft despite the free-agency departure of William Gay, who last season ranked eighth among corners in yards allowed per pass. The team appears ready to elevate nickel cornerback Keenan Lewis to the starting lineup, a decision that's warranted given Lewis' No. 18 ranking in yards allowed per pass last season. Add him to Ike Taylor, who was a top-10 corner in both yards allowed per pass and defensive success rate, and the Steelers have the makings of a formidable duo.

One problem: Pittsburgh's defense was in nickel or dime over 40 percent of the time last year. So who is going to play when there's an extra cornerback on the field? Process of elimination suggests it will be either Cortez Allen or Curtis Brown, both of whom were drafted in 2011. Seeing as how Allen saw only 10 passes thrown his way last season, and Brown didn't even play a single defensive snap, that's a pretty tall order for either of them -- not to mention an uncharacteristically risky gamble by the Steelers. We're not saying they're bad prospects; they're just incredibly inexperienced for such an important position in this specific NFL era on this specific NFL team.

The good news for Pittsburgh is that there are plenty of serviceable free agents still available. The bad news is that -- who are we kidding? -- Pittsburgh doesn't sign free agents.
Member
Posts: 55,838
Joined: Aug 7 2007
Gold: 6,313.21
May 16 2012 05:23pm
NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: Interior offensive line
In a nutshell, the Cowboys have three starting spots open, and the four players fighting for them include two former seventh-rounders (Bill Nagy and Mackenzy Bernadeau) and two players who weren't drafted (Nate Livings and Phil Costa). The Cowboys cut Kyle Kosier and opted not to re-sign Montrae Holland, which meant neither starting guard from last year would return. They also chose not to re-sign Derrick Dockery, a key backup who saw action in eight games.

The Cowboys did very well in most of our offensive line metrics, but in power situations (third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go, or goal-to-go situations with two or fewer yards to go) they ranked just 23rd in the NFL.

With those defections, Bill Nagy -- a 2011 draft pick who opened the season as a starter, but was injured after four terrible games -- is their lone returning guard. (Our charters repeatedly criticized Nagy's play in his brief starting tenure, and Dallas' offensive line metrics improved after he was replaced.) The Cowboys added a pair of guards in free agency: Livings from Cincinnati and Bernadeau from Carolina. Livings spent two years on Cincinnati's practice squad and two more as a backup before starting every game in 2010 and 2011. At 30, he's not likely to get any better, so his ceiling is reliable competence. Bernadeau, meanwhile, was drafted in 2008, but started only 20 of 47 games in a Carolina uniform, including one start in 15 games last year. So we could expect Livings to hold down one guard spot, while Bernadeau battles Nagy for the other.

But it's not that simple. Charean Williams of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram says that the Cowboys will start with Livings on the left side and Bernadeau on the right. Offensive line coach Bill Callahan, though, said they could end up switching sides. Further, Callahan mentioned that Bernadeau and Nagy would get a chance at center, even though Phil Costa (who started every game at that position in 2011) is still around, which isn't exactly a vote of confidence for Costa.

As teams start to make roster cuts this fall, there will be plenty of versatile depth players on the market, but Dallas already has four of those. Somehow, through player development or surprise cuts on other teams, the Cowboys need to find some starters.



New York Giants: Osi Umenyiora's replacement
Tom Coughlin's Super Bowl-winning Giants teams will be remembered for their steady rotation of defensive linemen. It was a unit that sent one pass-rusher after another across the line of scrimmage and into quarterbacks' nightmares, from Michael Strahan to Justin Tuck to Umenyiora to Mathias Kiwanuka to Jason Pierre-Paul.

However, the Giants' list of pass-rushers is getting smaller. Though Tuck and Pierre-Paul remain entrenched at defensive end, Kiwanuka has been moved to linebacker, leaving Umenyiora as the only proven pass-rusher on the Giants' bench. He may not be there for long. Umenyiora is entering the last year of his contract, and if the Giants don't give him the extension he wants (or trade him to a team that will), he has suggested he will hold out.

What kind of void would Umenyiora leave on the New York bench? Only one other Giants reserve lineman has ever sacked an NFL quarterback: 33-year-old Shaun Rogers, who had no sacks in 16 games with New Orleans last year. Most of the other bench players are late-round draftees or college free agents, none of whom have significant experience. The most talented player in this group might be Marvin Austin, a 2011 second-rounder out of North Carolina who missed his entire rookie season with a pectoral injury, but he will be placed at defensive tackle, not end.

This is why the Giants have been hesitant to trade Umenyiora: They can't afford to lose any more pass-rushers. Even if Umenyiora and the Giants reach a deal, New York still needs to add depth here.



Philadelphia Eagles: Secondary depth
The Eagles did about as much to rebuild their team as any NFL team this offseason. They signed offensive tackle Demetress Bell from the Bills, traded for ex-Texans linebaker DeMeco Ryans and picked California linebacker Mychal Kendricks in the first round of the draft. That's three methods for three new starters.

However, they created a hole in their defensive backfield when they traded away cornerback Asante Samuel, one of the best pass defenders in the league. Samuel ranked fourth among cornerbacks in success rate and first in yards per pass allowed in Football Outsiders' charting stats, after leading the NFL in both categories in 2010. His replacement, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, didn't see enough passes last year to qualify for the leaderboards, but his success rate of 60 percent was nearly identical to that of the other starter, Nnamdi Asomugha, who ranked 15th. On the other hand, both Rodgers-Cromartie and Asomugha allowed more than 7 yards per pass, which is about average for cornerbacks. In other words, expect the Eagles to force a lot of incompletions this year, but those balls that are caught could go for big yardage.

Just as importantly, Rodgers-Cromartie's promotion leaves the cupboard bare when it comes to secondary depth. Veteran Joselio Hanson steps up into the nickelback position, but he'll be 31 on opening day. Beyond that, there are only inexperienced mid-round picks from 2010 (Trevard Lindley), 2011 (Curtis Marsh) and 2012 (Georgia's Brandon Boykin).

The situation is similar at safety. Behind starters Kurt Coleman and Nate Allen, only one projected backup was actually drafted: Jaiquawn Jarrett, a 2011 second-rounder who rarely saw the field as a rookie. Teams that can spread the field with three or four quality receivers (the Giants come to mind) should give the Eagles all kinds of trouble, and if any of the starters misses significant time with an injury, it could make it a tough season in Philadelphia.



Washington Redskins: Cornerback
How busy were the Redskins in free agency? They added seven veterans on defense alone, which is as many as the Cowboys signed overall -- and more than the Eagles or Giants. Then they added three more players on offense, and topped it off with a kicker. Also, as you may have heard, they traded a bundle of draft picks to move up and select a new quarterback in Baylor's Robert Griffin III. However, even though they added five defensive backs in free agency, the secondary is still in dire straits.

Cornerback Josh Wilson finished in the top 25 in both of our pass coverage charting stats while starting all 16 games for the first time in his five-year career. However, DeAngelo Hall once again was DeAngelo Hall, only less so, with only three interceptions. To contrast Wilson and Hall, consider this: when covering the opposing team's top receiver, Wilson had a 49 percent success rate and allowed 9.4 yards per play. Hall had a 30 percent success rate and allowed 11.3 yards per play. To supplement their starters, the Redskins signed Cedric Griffin and Leigh Torrence to play nickel and dime. Griffin tore each of his ACLs in successive years, and when he finally came back in 2011 was one of the worst starting corners in the league. Torrence has generally come out below average in our charting numbers, although without enough passes to be ranked.

The Redskins cut O.J. Atogwe and saw LaRon Landry sign with the Jets in free agency, so they will have two new starting safeties next year, and not necessarily very good ones. Tanard Jackson finished third in our broken tackle count last year, but since he played only 10 games, his 16 broken tackles work out to a horrid 33.3 percent broken tackle rate. Jackson claims that he'll be better once he recovers from a shoulder injury, but that injury is the main reason Tampa Bay cut him. The current plan is to put Brandon Meriweather next to Jackson, but the Patriots were so sick of Meriweather's freelancing that they cut him before last season, and the Bears were so sick of his freelancing that they benched him after four games.

When Washington inevitably gets sick of him, it still has veteran Reed Doughty and youngster DeJon Gomes, who are both strong box safeties but struggle in coverage. The Redskins also added Madieu Williams, a seven-year veteran with the Bengals, Vikings and 49ers.
Member
Posts: 55,838
Joined: Aug 7 2007
Gold: 6,313.21
May 16 2012 05:23pm
NFC North


Chicago Bears: Offensive line
Offensive line has become something of a perpetual hole for the Bears. In fact, we don't even really analyze the Bears' offensive line anymore -- we just assume it will find a way to flounder. J'Marcus Webb may build on the hint of improvement he showed in 2011 and last year's first-round pick, Gabe Carimi, could be at full strength after missing most of his rookie season with a knee injury. However, Webb led the league with 15 offensive penalties in 2011 and Carimi looked mentally (and at times physically) overwhelmed in his five-and-a-half quarters of regular season action last year.

A good veteran swing tackle would do wonders for the Bears. Not only would it provide other options if Webb or Carimi don't perform, it would also prevent guards Chris Williams and Lance Louis from having to slide outside should an offensive tackle vacancy arise. Neither player has performed well at tackle in the past (that's why they're guards now), and a lot of Chicago's offensive line woes derive from the instability that's come from players frequently changing positions. That, in turn, is a big part of why Jay Cutler sometimes stops trusting his protection and becomes erratic.

The Bears do at least have some quality depth at guard in Chris Spencer, but his adequacy inside doesn't change the inadequacy of Williams and Louis outside.

It's easy to say a team should find a quality veteran swing tackle, but at this point in the offseason there really aren't any available (if a player were truly of quality, he wouldn't be unsigned). So the best thing a team can do is find a veteran niche player who is at least a specific fit to the team's system. A year ago, the Bears' offense under Mike Martz featured frequent seven-step drop passes, which demanded all linemen to be adroit pass-blockers. This year's Bears will be more balanced and play-action-oriented under new offensive coordinator Mike Tice, so a seasoned run-blocker -- which is easier to find than a skilled pass-blocker -- should be able to fill any voids.

One possible free-agent target is former Chargers tackle Marcus McNeill who is available because of knee problems the last two years and a serious neck injury from 2011. The risk would be low at this point (veteran minimum contract), and the reward potentially sky-high. If the Bears want more reliability, they could sign former Steelers tackle Max Starks. He's far from perfect, but he has experience on both sides of the line.



Detroit Lions: Cornerback
Veteran Eric Wright left in free agency, thinning a cornerback position that wasn't deep to begin with. If the season started today, untested third-round rookie Dwight Bentley would likely start opposite Chris Houston, who is solid but inconsistent. The nickelback duties -- which, in today's NFL, are practically starter's duties -- would fall to Aaron Berry, who is fluid but struggles with man coverage. Berry got a few reps as a starter late last season, but that was only because Houston was either hurt or struggling. Former Colts corner Jacob Lacey was brought in over the offseason, and has experience in a similar defense, but he ranked 81st in success rate against the pass last year and 88th in 2010.

The good news, though, is that cornerback is the one position the Lions can best hide, and they know it. GM Martin Mayhew has adopted Bill Polian's old strategy from Indy: invest heavily in your offense and build around your star quarterback. Then, defensively, play a simple zone-based scheme that features a great front four. This approach makes it easier to find passable defensive backs, because, in truth, just about every NFL corner can handle simple Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone concepts.

The Lions ameliorated their cornerback weakness when they slapped the franchise tag on vastly underrated defensive end Cliff Avril. His return keeps Detroit's four-man defensive end rotation (made up of Avril, the relentless Kyle Vanden Bosch and contributors Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young) intact. Sandwiched between the ends is a rotation of Ndamukong Suh, Corey Williams, Nick Fairley and Sammie Lee Hill, which is as good a defensive tackle quartet as you'll find. Thus, the hope is that a bad secondary can at least become average by playing with a lead and a strong pass rush. To be clear, the cornerback issues will still pose problems for Detroit. If the cornerback problems become too severe, the Lions could find relief with a veteran like Drayton Florence (recently cut by Buffalo due to a high salary), Dante Hughes or a Cover-2 retread like Lito Sheppard or Benny Sapp.



Green Bay Packers: Backup quarterback
The Packers are six-deep at wide receiver, four-deep at tight end and -- assuming James Starks' backup, Brandon Saine, can build on the flickers of potential he showed last year -- adequate at running back. Yes, the offensive line might be a little shaky and whoever is at left tackle, whether it's Marshall Newhouse or 2011 first-round pick Derek Sherrod (coming off a gruesome late-season leg injury), will need help. But when you have a quarterback as mentally sharp and fundamentally sound as Aaron Rodgers, an iffy left tackle is rarely a major problem.

Defensively, Green Bay addressed its need for another pass-rusher by selecting Nick Perry in the first round. They also got an early jump on their long-term rebuilding project at cornerback by taking Casey Hayward in the second round. Maybe Hayward can't be Charles Woodson, but we won't have to find out in 2012, because Woodson is still around, strong as ever. It's almost unfair that Ted Thompson was also able to address the thinning depth at defensive end by signing Anthony Hargrove (suspended eight games, however) and drafting the highly-touted Jerel Worthy in the second round.

However, there is that one little empty spot at backup quarterback. Matt Flynn was so good the last two years that there was never any chance the Pack would be able to hold onto him. If any injury causes Rodgers to miss action, the Packers are looking at trotting out either super raw seventh-round rookie B.J. Coleman or undrafted and utterly untested third-year man Graham Harrell.

Suddenly, Donovan McNabb doesn't look so vapid; Max Hall doesn't look so inaccurate; and Luke McCown doesn't look so erratic. None of those unsigned veterans would be as comforting as A.J. Feeley, though. The 35-year-old doesn't have a great arm, but he's very smart and could at least allow Mike McCarthy to still consider every page of his playbook if disaster were to strike.



Minnesota Vikings: Middle linebacker
We could characterize just about any position in Minnesota's secondary as a "hole." But holes next to holes do not equal multiple holes -- they equal one giant space. And there's no sense in analyzing how to "plug" a giant space. Besides, for a defense that runs Tampa 2-based concepts as much as the Vikings, the middle (Mike) linebacker can be every bit as important to pass defense as safeties and corners are. The middle linebacker is responsible for essentially the entire middle of the field. He must be astute and athletic enough to identify and respond to interior passing concepts.

Presumably in part because he lost a step in coverage, the Vikings opted not to re-sign E.J. Henderson this past offseason. Fourth-year pro Jasper Brinkley is slated to start in Henderson's place. You may remember Brinkley as the rookie who was thrust into the starting lineup late in 2009 after Henderson went down with a horrific broken leg.

Despite a tendency to play too laterally, Brinkley performed decently in a tough spot that year. He doesn't have Henderson's downhill instincts, though, and in 2010 he returned to a backup role. He spent 2011 on injured reserve with a surgically repaired hip. There's no evidence suggesting that Brinkley can handle the full slate of middle linebacker duties. This isn't to say he can't -- there's just no evidence thus far that says he can. The Vikings brought in journeyman Marvin Mitchell to compete at that spot, but he struggled to take proper angles against the run as a fill-in starter for the Dolphins last year.

It's possible Brinkley and Mitchell will both get backup-level snaps, as in today's pass-happy NFL, defenses spend a majority of time with three corners and just two linebackers on the field. In that case, the Vikings could be counting on Erin Henderson to fill his older brother's shoes as the nickel linebacker alongside Chad Greenway. Erin Henderson has decent quickness, but if he were anything special, the Vikings wouldn't have taken him off the field on passing downs last season.

The market for inside linebackers is sparse now, though former Colt Gary Brackett -- who is intimately familiar with a Cover-2 defense -- is available. Durability is a concern with Brackett though, and if the Vikings were willing to take a risk there, they might as well just bring back Henderson (which actually may not be an awful idea). Another option could be Rocky McIntosh, who was brought in for a tryout in May.





NFC South out tomorrow
Member
Posts: 42,835
Joined: Mar 16 2008
Gold: 70.00
May 16 2012 05:25pm
whats so great about insider? not like u cant get this info somewhere else
Member
Posts: 55,838
Joined: Aug 7 2007
Gold: 6,313.21
May 16 2012 05:27pm
Quote (TheBlackHole @ May 16 2012 07:25pm)
whats so great about insider? not like u cant get this info somewhere else


Then go read it somewhere else.
Member
Posts: 42,835
Joined: Mar 16 2008
Gold: 70.00
May 16 2012 05:29pm
Quote (Crashnburn_819 @ May 16 2012 11:27pm)
Then go read it somewhere else.


im just asking cant u get it somewhere else..i mean if its about ur team or w/e i dont see why u couldnt
Go Back To Football & Rugby Topic List
Prev123425Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll