https://i.imgur.com/VVEiHqW.pngEven if the win percentage was
10%, it's still much higher than the likelihood of guessing the exact yards of a passer in a given game.
Like.. your example was Stroud throwing 250 when the line was 245
Even if you know the final passing yards were definitely going to be +/-5 from the line, that's a 9.09% chance of guessing the right number...
The real likelihood of guessing the right number is much lower because obviously there's no guarantee the actual number will be within 5 of the line, just an example for you to see how wrong you are..
He was trying to say the odds were less than 1%. So, the math to hit 1% is -/+99 since there are two QBs. It was also a freeroll that he didn't have to participate in. He also compared 1000fg to 1$. Also, I was taking a shot at him for incorrectly writing the less than symbol. 50/50 chance on that one and he got it wrong. Also, the counting jelly beans in a jar isn't that hard. You count how many are in the circumference and then how many are in the height and then you can reduce the volume pretty close.The example that I gave of Stroud was what actually happened. Like your math showed you had a 1/11 in chance if you stayed with 5 yards of the line. Dudes just upset because I told him the Browns are the worst NFL franchise to ever exist and he knows it so it follows me around crying.
I realize that the Browns win percentage is greater than the odds actually selecting the correct passing yards. I was being facetious. Thanks for breaking down the math and selecting the right answer. You understood the goal of the poll.
This post was edited by Jenkem on Jan 17 2026 04:10am