Dom luzususuzjzya posted his data based on the easier schedule for Canadian teams


Using each team’s scoring prowess over expected, their goaltending, and their ability to create and suppress chances, I crafted a rough estimation of how many goals each team would score and allow against an average team based on their expected lineup. Then, I adjusted each team’s goal rate based on the defence and goaltending they would face this season. What’s clear is that there are going to be a lot of goals in Canada this year, and not nearly as many out West.



In Canada, defence looks like it’s going to be optional from coast-to-coast. The Senators and Oilers have two of the three worst projected goals against rates in the league and Vancouver is right there with them in the bottom 10. The Jets have one of the league’s worst defences and only barely escape the bottom 10 because of their goaltending. And though Toronto improved its defence corps during the offseason, the Leafs are still below average, too. That’s five teams where goals will be a lot easier to come by.

What makes that even scarier is that there are a lot of potent offences here, too, that can fully take advantage of that. Toronto and Edmonton will be lethal, the Canucks should be up there too, while Montreal, Winnipeg and Calgary have potential to be above average, as well. That every team gets to beat up on Ottawa is its own advantage as well. There isn’t much separating the offensive talent in Canada or either of the East or Central divisions, but it may look that way this season with their collective schedule advantage.

Thinking Patrik Laine has a monster year because he wants that GG long term contract.

Also brutal that half the decrease list is Sharks lol.

Yeah he explains West conference won't have much scoring cuz the teams are defensively better.

Whereas Canadian teams all suck defensively, except Habs. While majority of the Canadian teams have good offence, so expect high scoring. Also feast on the Sens.

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On the flip side, the West division has a complete murderer’s row of defensive stoppers plus high-end goaltending that will make scoring there extremely challenging. The Sharks are the only team expected to be terrible defensively with the Kings being only a little bit below average. The rest? Five of the eight teams project to be in the Top 10 for goals allowed with Anaheim not far behind either. All five of Anaheim, Arizona, Colorado, St. Louis and Vegas have very strong goaltending that can steal games on their own. Arizona’s goaltenders are routinely at the top of any goaltending category, then there’s John Gibson – one of the game’s best with the potential to bounce back – plus Jordan Binnington, Robin Lehner and even Philipp Grubauer. It’ll be tough, but even tougher is that Colorado, Minnesota, St. Louis and Vegas are all among the league’s stingiest teams too. Even getting to each team’s goalie will be a challenge.

In Canada, stars like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, and Elias Pettersson are going to have a field day with the collective defensive and goaltending talent in the division and that might mean a few more points than one might initially expect. It’s not worth shooting a player way up the rankings, but it’s enough to move them up a couple of spots, or be the key tie-breaker between two close talents. In the West, stars like Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Stone, and Ryan O’Reilly will have it much tougher and they might need to be moved down the board as a result of likely earning fewer points than expected.

Here’s a real world example. Say you’re picking fourth. McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Nikita Kucherov are all off the board. Conventional wisdom says to pick MacKinnon, especially after his monstrous playoff run, but the decision between him and Matthews, the next best center, is closer than you might think, simply because of schedule strength.

Without any adjustment, I project MacKinnon to score 68 points in 56 games, while Matthews would be projected for 65 points in 56 games. Factoring in who MacKinnon plays against would drop him to 66 while Matthews would jump up to 68 himself. It’s the slightest shift for either player, but it ends up flipping both players where Matthews might be the more attractive fantasy option this year purely because of his schedule. Of course, there are other factors that make MacKinnon more attractive, like his durability, shot rate, and power play points, but the point is it becomes a discussion rather than a slam dunk. For perhaps a better example, MacKinnon is currently getting drafted before Draisaitl in Yahoo leagues and, given Draisaitl also plays for a Canadian team and has left-wing eligibility, he’s likely the stronger choice.

It’s possible that something like this might not apply to a superstar like MacKinnon, but it’s definitely worth considering on draft day. I don’t blame you if you believe in MacKinnon, he’s worthy of it, but if it comes down to Brock Boeser or Max Pacioretty, pick the guy with the easier schedule. It’s very likely going to matter this year, especially for the stronger offensive teams in Canada and the weaker defensive teams in the West. Stay away from San Jose altogether.

This post was edited by Secksii on Dec 22 2020 09:06am

their goaltending, sure.


2 dmen, and the hand full of forwards will get picked and they will be fine

So divisions are confirmed, does anyone know how the conferences work?

Like which top 4 will play which top 4 in playoffs?

The top 4 divisions will play each other,

Then the next round, they'll be reseeded based on their regular season pt total

does that include klefbom out for the oilers? lol

I don't think it changes much, since they are already shitty defensively with him. Losing him will make them worse defensively, but at least they got barrie to boost their offense and pp. So literally just do their usual thing, outscore FTW.

I think it will depend on the jets more, their d core is really fucking bad. It depends if hellebuyck can repeat his godlike performance in this compressed season against new teams that he's not used to playing much against.

This post was edited by Secksii on Dec 25 2020 02:22am