yeah they pretty much go over the whole thing, most FA signing is a ripoff since they end up being traded/bought out before the contract expires cuz the player starts to suck later years into contract. They go over Zuccarello's too, quite a read.
Mats Zuccarello signed the exact same contract for the Wild as Myers did: Five years, $30 million. For a forward, the expectation is top six production, or 7.2 wins over five years. At age 32, Zuccarello will be worth it for a little bit, but as he gets older, that contract gets worse and worse. In Year 1, he has a 66 percent chance of providing positive value, but that drops every year to 54 percent, then 44 percent, then 35 percent, then 26 percent in Year 5. Over a five year deal, Zuccarello is likely to provide positive expected value in less than half the years. In total, his chances of providing positive value over the entire deal is 42.6 percent.
Zuccarello and Myers are unsurprisingly not alone. Of the 37 deals signed with a cap hit north of $1.5 million, only 10 are likely to provide positive value and the average probability is 41 percent. On average, the amount of “positive” value years is just 32 percent, with more than half providing zero such years.
This list shows which contracts give out the most positive value per contract
https://i.imgur.com/GWjyA6V.png