yeah they pretty much go over the whole thing, most FA signing is a ripoff since they end up being traded/bought out before the contract expires cuz the player starts to suck later years into contract. They go over Zuccarello's too, quite a read.

Mats Zuccarello signed the exact same contract for the Wild as Myers did: Five years, $30 million. For a forward, the expectation is top six production, or 7.2 wins over five years. At age 32, Zuccarello will be worth it for a little bit, but as he gets older, that contract gets worse and worse. In Year 1, he has a 66 percent chance of providing positive value, but that drops every year to 54 percent, then 44 percent, then 35 percent, then 26 percent in Year 5. Over a five year deal, Zuccarello is likely to provide positive expected value in less than half the years. In total, his chances of providing positive value over the entire deal is 42.6 percent.

Zuccarello and Myers are unsurprisingly not alone. Of the 37 deals signed with a cap hit north of $1.5 million, only 10 are likely to provide positive value and the average probability is 41 percent. On average, the amount of “positive” value years is just 32 percent, with more than half providing zero such years.

This list shows which contracts give out the most positive value per contract


This post was edited by Secksii on Jul 8 2019 08:20pm

RFA List

Wow this is something to look at.

Makes me like the Jordie Benn signing even more.

What a deal for a rugged defender who will most likely put in even more effort playing in his home province.

Seeing the 2 other Canuck dmen near the bottom though.... Ouch.


Judging by this Dallas did very well. A lot of skill and power headed their way despite being older players.

interesting to see Aho still being amazing value despite getting well paid, and Ceci basically a Gomez

How is Simmonds so low on %value on a 1 year deal lol.

Yet skinner middle of the pack

Charts make no sense

Cuz based on their analytics they have of him, he only has 23% of performing a positive value of 5m.

Its like asking why Eriksson's value is low, if the Canucks signed him to a 1 yr deal for 6m and he performed like any of the past 3 years. He didn't perform like a 6m player.



They expect about 3 yrs of positive value from skinner, then the remaining 5 yrs be trash. He has 45% chance of it though, which aren't good odds for 8yrs.

On how many years do they base their data on ? Just last year ? Last two years ?

Seems like 2016.


It feels like Wayne Simmonds’ reputation has faded with his dismal performance in Nashville after being acquired at the trade deadline, but with the reborn infatuation with heavy hockey after a Blues’ Stanley Cup victory, this contract has potential to be ugly. If he gets term it could be toxic.

Simmonds is projected to net $5-million per season for five years according to Evolving Hockey’s work and it’s debatable whether he’s even worth $5-million on a one-year deal. Over five, he’s likely worth just more than half of that and he may not even last that long with the way his career is heading.

Simmonds is no longer a viable top-six forward option at age 31 and it won’t be long before he isn’t a viable top-nine option either. He can score goals and is a strong net-front presence, but part of both strengths is that he’s given an opportunity to do so on the power play, an opportunity he arguably doesn’t deserve anymore. At 5-on-5, Simmonds’ game has declined immensely over the past few seasons as he struggles to drive play and score at an above average rate. Over the last two season, his expected goals percentage of 47.6 percent was one of the worst rates on Philadelphia and he was just as bad in Nashville. His points-per-60 of 1.19 over the time frame is fourth line caliber.

Simmonds is just not the player he used to be, and unless he takes a massive pay-cut relative to what’s expected, then his next contract will likely be regrettable on day one.

Here's myers



It seems a lot of hockey men are still enamored by the extremely tall Tyler Myers, despite the fact he’s been aggressively mediocre in Winnipeg with last season being a low point. When Myers was on the ice, the Jets carried a 48.2 percent expected goals rate, a pretty low mark for someone playing on the third pair. Myers can move the puck fine and is OK offensively, but is a turnstile at his own blue line and struggles defensively as a result. Over the last three seasons, he’s allowed the most expected goals against per 60 amongst Jets defenders.

And yet, Myers looks like he’s in line for a deal that will pay upwards of $6-million per season for a long time. With Myers one year away from age 30, it doesn’t feel like a very strong bet as he’ll only get worse as the years wear on – and he’s already not at a high place to start.

At this point, my model figures Myers provides bottom pairing value and it’s only a matter of time before that value disintegrates further. There’s no larger discrepancy this offseason between my model’s projected market value and Evolving Hockey’s projected contract than Myers, who appears to be worth just over half of what he’s expected to get. Of all the contracts signed in July, it’s Myers’ that will arguably be the biggest poison pill right from the get-go. Teams expecting a top-four defenseman will likely be in for a rude awakening sooner rather than later.