my link shows that Ontario is semi conservative province, but you completely ignore it

This post was edited by KrWWW on Jun 18 2016 04:22pm

Again, that's the industry assumption, but I have reservations against using it for politics - the industry of stats tends to use sample size as a be all end all, the same sample size equation applies to every industry. I don't buy it.

Most industries are 5-10 years behind on stats when it comes to sampling.

This post was edited by dxlightning on Jun 18 2016 04:25pm

Were you meaning to quote me? Considering I'd actually agree that Ontario is semi-conservative, I'm not sure lol .



I think the perfectly random sample is the end all be all, only problem is actually achieving that. Yes the equation does change in most industries, but an underlying principle remains. I'm usually skeptical of quantitative evidence, as you said it's often taken to be a tool that's viewed as far more perfect than it actually is, but the (theoretical) math behind sample sizes and the normal curve has me convinced, mostly, that sufficient sample sizes properly surveyed are generally sound.

I do agree that polling is deficient in politics. Polling has never interested me that much mostly because I find it to be an inaccurate tool of making specific analytical judgements. It's OK for making generalizations and big picture observations, but it's not good at telling us how people actually think.

Agreed that perfect randomness is the be all end all. I just don't think anyone achieves it. No public political poll takes into account which sectors vote more often than others. No polls go further than district-level. No poll even bothers to check if anyone gives a shit about the election.

There might be value there but by no means does it have much bearing on the current administration.

True, and that's really the futility is political polling.

New season of Orange is the new Black is
I don't know what Netflix is doing differently from other networks but the quality of writing is as good as or better than the beginning.

This post was edited by dxlightning on Jun 19 2016 02:18pm

i stopped watching after like halfway through season 2

what season are they at now maybe i'll pick it up again

https://twitter.com/WSHHFANS/status/744596198573613056

Alligator climbing a fence

Jesus

Dayum, we get stats like that every other month in a few cities around here lol.