Golf Digest hired a retired chairman of the Math. Dept. at Boston U. to calculate the odds of a hole in one using the "best available" data. Some results:
# Tour player making an ace: 3,000 to 1
# Low-handicapper making an ace: 5,000 to 1
# Average player making an ace: 12,000 to 1
Source:
http://golf.about.com/od/faqs/f/holeinon...The odds of an adult male bowling a perfect game are 1 in 11,500. Source:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/highschool...If these two sources are correct, the odds of a golf ace vs. a perfect game of bowling are about the same for the "average" player.
A profession bowler's strike percentage is typically over 60% with the record over a season being 66.28%. A perfect game requires 12 consecutive strikes. If each frame could be treated as an independent event (it's really not since bowlers can't forget that they just bowled ten strikes and have a chance at a perfect game with two more strikes), the probability of a perfect game is about (0.6)^12 = 0.00218. This puts the odds at about 460 to 1. These odds are better than a PGA Tour player making an ace so a perfect game is easier for a pro bowler.