Quote
Tim Peel said the quiet part out loud, the part every referee in every hockey league around the world is conditioned to believe, a belief engrained into the expectations of the job.
Being a referee is not about calling the rulebook, it’s about managing the game and that became clearer than it’s ever been when Peel was caught on a hot mic saying “it wasn’t much, but I wanted to get a fucking penalty against Nashville early.” What he said wasn’t the problem, it was that he got caught exposing the NHL’s penalty philosophy where the definition of “fair and just” is relative.
The NHL has a massive problem that needs to be talked about, the “let them play” ethos that’s plaguing the sport at every level. It’s the idea that the referee can decide a game with a penalty call, but that somehow doesn’t apply to a non-call of a blatant rulebook violation. Not deciding the game is deciding the game – for the other team committing the violations. It’s letting one team play, illegally, and asking the other team to simply deal with it, to play around it. It’s a plague on the sport, one that’s amplified further in the highest leverage situations, where whistles are swallowed depending on how important the moment is.
No one knows what a penalty is because it doesn’t matter, it’s up to the referee’s discretion. Something that’s an obvious penalty in the first period might not be in the third if that team is trailing by a goal, or if they’ve had fewer power plays that game. In 2015, Michael Lopez conducted a study on make-up calls in the NHL and found that a team is more likely to get a power play depending on the current penalty differential in the game. The goal is game management where “fair” doesn’t mean play by the rules, it means both teams get their fair share of power-play opportunities. It’s why players always seem so frustrated with literally any call – because it’s difficult to know what actually is and isn’t a penalty when the definition changes every minute.
Going all the way back to 2018-19, referees get what they’re hoping for 25 percent of the time, calling exactly the same number of penalties on both sides. That may not seem like much, but that jumps to 62 percent for a penalty differential of one or less and 86 percent for two or less. Over half the games being within one penalty and nearly 90 percent within two feels like it’s by design.
A very large majority of games are as close to even as possible, which is the goal. No referee wants to be part of a game like Nashville vs. Winnipeg in early 2018-19 where the Predators had 14 (!) power plays to Winnipeg’s five, the most lopsided game over the last three seasons. Of the 2,343 games used in the data set, only 26 had a penalty differential greater than five. That’s just over one percent.
That brings us back to Peel, who doesn’t look so different from the average referee. In that time span, there have been 36 referees who skated in 50 games or more. Peel ranks 26th in games with an even penalty differential (22.5 percent), 27th when the penalty differential is one or less (57.8 percent), and 26th when the penalty differential is two or less (84.3 percent). All three figures are not far from average. Peel was just doing his job. And that’s the problem.
1. The actual range in penalty differential is very tight which says even more about this being a systemic issue rather than one bad apple. Of the 36 referees in this study, 35 are at 80 percent or higher for games with a penalty differential at two or lower, with the only exception being one rounding error away at 79.7 percent. The highest is 91.5 percent meaning nearly every game is consistent in its inconsistency. We don’t know what will be a penalty, but we do know it’ll be pretty even by the end.
2. With that being said, the range for a penalty differential of one or less is a bit wider, from 53 percent to 75 percent. Here are the top and bottom five in terms of game management.
Highest share of games within one penalty:
Marc Joannette: 75.2 percent
Chris Lee: 71.6 percent
Furman South: 69.4 percent
Chris Rooney: 68.7 percent
Ian Walsh: 67.2 percent
Lowest share of games within one penalty:
Frederick Lecuyer: 53.1 percent
Trevor Hansen: 55.4 percent
Tom Chmielewski: 55.4 percent
Garret Rank: 55.4 percent
Brad Watson: 55.9 percent
At 34.7 percent, South is also the most likely to call a completely even game and one of three referees (Kendrick Nicholson and Chris Schlenker) above 30 percent.
3. This isn’t a stat, but it’s the last thing I’ll say on the whole referee fiasco, something I’ve been an ardent critic of for years. (When you have a fair bit of money riding on these games, it’s hard not to see how big of an effect referees have in their misguided attempt to not have one at all).
It’s about public accountability. NHL referees do not have to answer to anyone, they don’t have to own up to mistakes, and their decisions are never really scrutinized in a way that matters. It’s what separates Mickey Mouse leagues from the actual big leagues, and the NHL, with the way it shields its referees from any criticism, is frankly in the former category.
Peel’s remarks were obviously wrong, and it’s a good thing he was disciplined. But spare us the PR-spin about integrity when it’s not at all difficult to measure how Peel officiates relative to the field. Integrity would mean recognizing the root cause of the issue – game management over calling the rulebook – and taking steps toward fixing the actual problem. It’s not just Peel, and it’s not the quality of officials the league has either; it’s how they’re instructed to do their jobs.
4. Back to the actual hockey. Until a relatively even game against Arizona on Tuesday, the Avalanche were on an epic tear in terms of five-on-five dominance. Seven straight games at 65 percent expected goals or higher, 11 straight above 55 percent and 12-of-14 above 60 percent. Every game they look like a buzzsaw, dominating chances to an insane degree. In their 11 game stretch, the team had an absurdly nice 69 percent expected goals rate at five-on-five – 12 percentage points better than the next best team. With a 71 percent goals rate, they scored just as often too. In all situations, the team was even stronger at 71 percent expected goals, outshooting opponents 441-to-253 over the stretch. It was difficult to imagine a team being able to contend with a Tampa Bay team adding Nikita Kucherov during the playoffs but the Avalanche, at their peak, can be that team.
5. The biggest reason for Colorado’s success is its top three defencemen: Cale Makar, Samuel Girard and Devon Toews. All three have an expected goals rate above 60 percent this year and are playing at a 50-point normal season pace or higher. Those two numbers propel all three to insane heights by average Game Score where the trio are 1-2-3 among defencemen. Imagine that Norris ballot.
They’ve been that good and a huge driver of Colorado’s success, eating up big minutes, moving the puck well, and asserting territorial dominance anytime they step on the ice. Their play this season has elevated all three players’ projected value into the elite tier. Colorado is the only team with three defencemen projected to provide that much value.
Makar was already there, but it’s a new home for Girard and Toews who don’t get the respect they deserve league-wide. When we did our preseason player tiers, I asked about both Girard and Toews to no avail. There’s no chance they’re left off next season.
6. Makar is exiting the zone with possession on 71 percent of his attempts this season according to data tracked by Corey Sznajder. The next best defenceman, Roman Josi, is at 59 percent. That’s simply absurd and probably helps explain why the team is so good with him on the ice. That he’s that elite in transition and that involved in the offensive zone gives the Avalanche a crucial weapon from the back-end. Interestingly, both Girard and Toews are actually more involved in the offensive zone with 24.1 and 21.1 shot contributions per 60 (shots plus primary shot assists). Makar is at 21.0. There are only 10 defenders in the league above that mark and three are on Colorado. It ain’t fair.
7. Only three players have drawn 20 penalties this season. The fastest and best player in the league, Connor McDavid. One of the chippiest and most annoying players in the league, Brady Tkachuk. And then there’s Arizona’s Conor Garland. He’s having a terrific season for the Coyotes, emerging as a real top-line talent and that’s an underrated skill set of his.
8. Since coming back from his leave of absence, Artemi Panarin has three goals and seven assists, six of which are primary, in just six games. He’s looking closer to the MVP-calibre player he was last season and has been lights out at five-on-five with a 60.4 percent expected goals rate while outscoring opponents 8-0. All of that is good for an average Game Score of 2.25 which is behind only Nathan MacKinnon and McDavid for the month of March.
9. I don’t usually comment on a player’s goals against rate because it’s generally out of their control, but sometimes it’s too insane not to.
Travis Sanheim has had a miserable time of late, being on the ice for at least one goal against in 12 straight games, peaking with a minus-six outing in that 9-0 drubbing at the hands of the Rangers. In those 12 games, Sanheim has been on the ice for a staggering 23 goals against, by far the most in the league. There’s a bit of bad luck to that, obviously, but when it’s that bad and the player also has a 39 percent expected goals rate, it’s tough to make excuses in Sanheim’s favour.
10. Of course, goaltending is the major factor in Sanheim’s bad numbers and while his poor defensive play probably hasn’t helped matters, it’s the goalies behind him that are likely making him look much worse than he’s actually been.
In the month of March, Carter Hart has allowed 14.4 goals above expected in eight games off an .821 save percentage. That’s the worst mark in the league. Brian Elliott has allowed 10.1 goals above expected off an identical .821 save percentage. That’s the second-worst in the league.
At the beginning of March, the Flyers had an 83 percent chance at making the playoffs, the second-highest in the East thanks to an 11-4-3 record. They’ve gone 4-8-1 since thanks to the goaltending, seeing their playoff odds plummet all the way down to 14 percent. That’s the end of the Flyers’ season in a nutshell with the tandem collectively allowing 24.5 goals more than an average tandem would. That’s nine more than the next worst team.
11. Fifteen straight losses for the Sabres. That’s the most in the salary cap era, an almost unfathomable display of ineptitude. That deserves a few stats.
In those 15 games, the team has just five skaters with a positive Game Score. Jeff Skinner with three points in 14 games leads at 0.18, which is a fourth line rate.
Sam Reinhart and Victor Olofsson lead the team with all of seven points during the stretch.
Not a single player outscored his opponents at five-on-five during the streak, with Henri Jokiharju being the only player who was even. Only two players, Skinner and Casey Mittelstadt had a positive expected goals rate.
At five-on-five, Buffalo had an expected goals rate of 41.4 percent, surprisingly not the worst mark during the stretch. Just the second worst.
In all situations they were outshot 510-to-369… and outscored 63-to-25. The team averaged more than four goals against per game and less than two goals for.
On the power play, the team scored just two goals in 15 games, tied for the least in the league. They also allowed one.
The team’s projected strength on the first day of the skid was 0.443 – relatively close to where the team started the season. It’s dropped to 0.352 since, a cataclysmic change in a one-month span. And that doesn’t even include Wednesday’s beat down.
Can it get any worse? Because it’s honestly hard to imagine this team ever winning again. They look utterly defeated.
Rasmus Ristolainen. (Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images)
12. One of the stories I was really looking forward to doing early in the season was a collaboration with Buffalo beat writer John Vogl on Rasmus Ristolainen. It feels like a lifetime ago at this point, but early in the season, Ristolainen looked like a brand new player, playing the best hockey of his career. His battle with COVID was arguably the toughest of any player and the splits tell a pretty grim tale.
Ristolainen pre-COVID
10GP, 2-4-6, 55.2% xG, +3, 0.94 Game Score
Ristolainen post-COVID
14GP, 1-1-2, 33.8% xG, -17, -1.33 Game Score
It’s two completely different players and yes, Ristolainen has a lengthy history of being a poor defender that 10 games shouldn’t have swayed opinions much – but it really did seem like he turned a corner.
13. I generally have a pretty good grasp of how players are rated by my model – I look at depth charts every day and have a decent memory for it. Sometimes a player catches me by surprise though and in this case, that was Islanders rookie Oliver Wahlstrom who’s having a very strong under-the-radar season.
Wahlstrom is averaging under 12 minutes per night but has been extremely efficient, specifically thanks to his strong shot. For the year he has six five-on-five goals in just 263 minutes, good for 1.37 goals-per-60 which leads the Islanders. It also ranks 15th in the league among forwards who have played 250 or more minutes, right between Pavel Buchnevich and Auston Matthews. Not bad company. Four of his eight goals on the season have come over the last six games, where he’s also added an assist.
For that reason, Wahlstrom is now projected to be a one-win player, enough to be rated as a low-end second liner which is especially impressive given his low ice-time. There was some disappointment in the 2018 11th overall pick’s game last season in both the AHL and a nine-game NHL stint, but he’s picking things up quickly in his first real season. Wahlstrom is still only 20 years old and if this season is any indication, he has the potential to be a real difference-maker.
14. I really wonder what kind of season Roope Hintz would be having if he was 100 percent healthy. He’s a game-time decision every night and has only been able to suit up for every other game since mid-February. Despite that, he has 18 points in 20 games with 10 of those coming on the man advantage. He’s been a crucial part of the team’s 13th ranked power play, but has also been a critical piece at five-on-five where he’s second to Jason Robertson with a 1.95 points-per-60. He’s also among the team leaders with a 54.5 percent expected goals rate. This could’ve been his big breakout season.
15. According to data tracked by Corey Sznajder, the forward with the second most rebound shots per 60 is Anze Kopitar at two per 60, with Brendan Gallagher and Nick Bonino not far off. Brady Tkachuk is in first by a mile at 2.89. He’s the net-front king and it’s not even close – once he learns how to finish those second chances he’s going to be a very special player.
16. With yet another victory against Calgary Wednesday night, the Senators improved to 5-2-0 in the season series. They’ve had their number all season and have given Toronto and Montreal similar fits, going 10-7-0 against those three teams. They’re 1-12-3 against Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Vancouver (credit to Conor Hogan on Twitter for finding this), which brings up an interesting question about how important team style is when predicting which teams will win.
Edmonton and Winnipeg are two of the most rush-oriented teams in the league while Calgary and Montreal are two of the most forecheck-oriented teams according to data tracked by Sznajder (Toronto and Vancouver are closer to average). That matters and is probably the main reason a hard-working, but low-skilled Senators team can hold their own against one group, but not the other. The intra-division games have been very interesting in illuminating the importance of stylistic matchups with the Senators being a particularly extreme example. It’s difficult to figure out with the limitations of current data, but it definitely seems like something worth looking into.
Athletic Article
This post was edited by KrWWW on Mar 25 2021 10:41am