From athletics piece:
According to Evolving Hockey’s contract model, the biggest RFA contract from this summer is slated to go to Mikko Rantanen as one of two players expected to net a deal north of $10 million. The model is agnostic to team situations and contexts – it is meant as a barometer of the marketplace. In a free market, perhaps that’s what Rantanen would get after back-to-back point-per-game seasons, especially last season playing at a 96-point pace. In Colorado though, it all comes back to Nathan MacKinnon.

Obviously, Rantanen will end up earning more than MacKinnon’s $6.3 million per season, but how much more is what’s up for debate and that internal structure does play a role. The other thing to consider in that vein is how much of Rantanen’s success hinges on playing a bulk of his minutes with MacKinnon, the team’s best and most important player. When playing with MacKinnon over the last two seasons, Rantanen has earned 75 points in 1,937 minutes together (2.32 points-per-60), but in 400 minutes apart has just seven (1.13 points-per-60) at 5-on-5.

That’s not the best sign for Rantanen’s production, though that is in a small sample and the team’s lack of depth outside its stars should be considered. But even without that caveat, it should also be noted that much of Rantanen’s lofty production comes via increased opportunity with a heavy dosage of minutes, especially on the power play. At 5-on-5, his 2.13 points-per-60 ranks 58th over the last two seasons. Top line worthy, of course, but not exactly superstar-calibre.

That’s part of the reason my model considers him to be a borderline elite talent (the cutoff is 2.95 wins), especially since much of his value comes via his production which carries some question marks. In terms of two-way play, Rantanen’s impact looks to be only average. Again, on offence it’s MacKinnon carrying the load, and on defence it’s Gabriel Landeskog. He’s a large part of what makes that line go, but it’s worth noting he’s second fiddle on offence and is arguably the weakest link defensively.

Sakic: *presents analytics and logic and stuff*
Rantanen: "perkele I go sign offer sheet"
Sakic: "ok here's [insert whatever Marner gets]"

I’d take marner in a heartbeat over any other RFA, aho was the closest to him in ability to be a game changer by himself. Montreal was stupid for offer sheeting him so low, granted it’s only 5 years and he’ll probably get a Panarin stupid ( 7x13 or more) deal when he goes UFA.

Would I give up 4 firsts? As I’ve already said totally depends on where I expect my team to be.
4 x 16-30 picks < Marner
4 x 1-15 picks > Marner

I would take Boeser at 6.5. Not enough compensation in that range to let him go. I can see the point you are making. There is good value offer sheeting in that range because you can get a big piece for a much smaller price by comparison.

Problem is as discussed earlier is you need to have pre-existing players set up to maximize the output of those types of players. They are not on that elite level where they can do it themselves.

This post was edited by Killingyouall on Jul 17 2019 08:00am

Ron Francis expected to be named Seatlle GM

More like

Sakic: *presents analytics and logic and stuff*
Rantanen: perkele I go sign offer sheet
Sakic: go ahead, I'll replace you with marner then YoLo
Rantanen: oh damn I stay Pls, I sign discount 8.5mil

but if you are a contending team you likely have those pieces or have 3 extra 1sts to get them
and the lower salary are more likely to be matched but what if u did something crazy and offered half the contract in the first 2-3 seasons? that might make an owner say hang on a sec



nice
now all these teams know who to call to dump these shit ass contracts on
phones rings "hello" "hey i heard you got cap space you sholud draft this guy"

This post was edited by dragoneth on Jul 17 2019 10:04am

“Hello Ron? For the love of god please take Kevin Hayes, I’ll suck your dick to get rid of that contract”

Sounds about right

honestly i dont think the contracts that bad the term is a bit rough but its not a 35+ we can buy him out in the last years if he starts to suck and take a minimal cap hit
hes also a bigger guy that can play center and wing so if patrick develops into a 2c hayes can play wing for a couple of seasons or be a solid 3rd liner til we need the cap space
then we can dump him to the sens since they seem to collect all the shit contracts look at that fucking roster rofl

Delusional m8