Hey guys, I typically post in the football section but this sub forum could use some love too. I have a finance background and have been sports investing for a while now. Wanted to share a technique you can use in the NBA and NCAAB to improve on your ROI

How do I create my own spread lines?
- As a public bettor this is imperative to your long term success.

For this example I will use Atlanta Hawks vs Brooklyn Nets
PPG= Points per game PPGA = Points per game Allowed

X= T1 PPG - T2 PPG = 3.3
Y= T1 PPGA - T2 PPGA = -2
Z= 1.3 differential advantage for T1 (Hawks)

Now the spread line (best line I found on the early lines was +5.5)
1.3 + 5.5 = 6.8 Advantage T1 (Hawks)

This means with all of the data, we have a disparity in the line set by Vegas in our favor to take the dog here. I use a 6.5+ point advantage as a filter when selecting plays to take.
**Another important factor is using this model on the opening lines. Sharps in the industry are able to pick out these disparities and move lines quickly. Currently the line is at +4.5 which would put us below the threshold of our filter.

This all sounds super nerdy right? I’m ex Army so don’t @ me. If you want to make money in the sports investing world you have to put in the work.

With that said the highest differential play of the night was on the Knicks at 8.3.

Beating the closing line even when you lose is also imperative to your success. This means you got the best value on your play regardless of the outcome. Over the long run you will get back doored far less.

So plays I took on the early lines today are
Knicks +1.5 (current line +1)
Hawks +5.5 (current line +4.5)

There is no such thing as a 🔒 or a sure bet. Analyzing games for expected outcomes with an EV (expected value) edge over the books is what we are after.

What about live plays?

I have two strategies.

1) a 16 point differential on favorites

Example: last night the Phoenix suns spread was -11.5 (10.5 right before tipoff). In the 2Q the live line got up to +5.5 (-120) I don’t pay that much juice ever. Hit at +4.5 (16 point differential). Suns ended up covering the 11.5 with a monster 4Q. However if the Pelicans kept it close we still had a nice 2-3 possession buffer.

2) High scoring 1Q.

This can push the closing line total up 20 points higher. I will always take the under in this case. Bucks vs Timberwolves scored 84 iirc about a week ago in the 1Q. Pushed the line from 230 -> 251.5 at its peak.
Ending result the total didn’t even cover the original closing line.

Sorry for the long post just wanted to help bettors and provide value from someone who does this everyday. Hope this helps someone

ok so what's the lock

Seems Like Pacers and Brooklyn

love from u? make some bets bitch

Pacers line is now 0.0 (Pk)
Brooklyn line is now -4.5

Early bird gets the worm

Super intelligent comment.

Ty for ur service

Do you have frequent success with this model?

This post was edited by Red Sox on Nov 3 2021 06:19pm

Thanks brother

Thanks brother

I use the same strategy all season long. College ball as well. I’ll keep posting my early lines in this thread if I have time each day. Sports investing is a long term game I don’t concern myself with a small sample size of wins or losses