Quote (Brendon @ Nov 20 2015 01:32pm)
pretty confident pick you got there .. how come?
#529 DUQUESNE -2½ -106 over Penn State
There is not always value in the underdog. From time to time we can find an undervalued favorite, especially early in the year when the market is just learning these teams. Duquesne is just 33-58 in three years under head coach Jim Ferry. The Dukes now have the pieces in place to make some noise in the A-10. The Dukes return eight of their top 10 scorers from last season’s 12-19 squad, a group led by its senior backcourt of Derrick Colter and Micah Mason. Joining those returning players is a collection of talented newcomers with immediate contributors such as point guard Rene Castro, a Butler transfer, and burly freshman forward Nakye Sanders.Most importantly, this roster consists entirely of players recruited by Ferry. Ferry has a history of turning around a program too in a similar situation. Ferry inherited an LIU Brooklyn program in 2002 that was 5-22 the previous season and had posted a losing record in 15 of its past 17 seasons. By the time he left for Duquesne in 2012, Ferry led the Blackbirds to back-to-back NCAA tournaments. LIU went 33-53, an eerily similar mark to his one thus far at Duquesne. The Dukes have started the year 2-0 but the market puts no weight on it whatsoever because the victories occurred against Seton Hill (not Hall), and New Orleans. Duquesne’s poor past is what makes this number a deflated one and we’re on it.
The Nittany Lions are also 2-0 after defeating VMI and DePaul. While the 6-point win over DePaul looks good, it is worth noting that the Blue Demons are in a massive rebuilding faze. Penn State suffered through another tough season in the Big Ten last year, winning just four conference games. State went 18-16 overall but most of their wins occurred against cupcakes in the first six weeks of the year. Furthermore, the player who won most of those games for Penn State is now gone. D.J. Newbill did absolutely everything for this team. He averaged 20.7 points per game while nobody else on the squad averaged more than 9.2 points per game. Penn State’s high hopes rest largely on unproven freshmen. This program needed to get more talent and picking up the best recruiting class in school history is a good first step but it’s not going to happen overnight. The Lions are weak in the frontcourt, meaning they are going to get dominated on the boards almost every game. That’s a tough way to roll. For PSU, this season is all about building for the future and developing the younger talent, which is not the type of team we want to back in a road game getting a short price. Pick: Duquesne -2½ -106