Quote (qlopx @ Oct 29 2015 03:31pm)
Dave Tuley's Take: We're starting to see these big spreads that the top teams are being forced to lay come into play (Green Bay -10.5 vs. San Diego; New England -9 vs. Indianapolis in Week 6; and both New England -9 vs. the New York Jets, and Arizona -10 vs. Baltimore in Week 7). We have another one here with the Patriots favored by 8 over the Dolphins. I'm going to pass on a side on this game.
k to the over, as they do when the Patriots are involved. New England is No. 2 in total offense, Miami is up to No. 10 and both teams are 4-2 with overs, but I think that's part of why this total is set so high. The Dolphins should have more problems racking up points on the Patriots than they did on both the Titans and Texans the past two weeks, and the Dolphins' defense should be able to pressure Brady and get some stops to keep the Pats from running up the score.
The play: Under 51.
Wunderdog: The Patriots had some trouble with the talented Jets defensive line last week, so they threw most of the time. The same game plan will be seen this week, with Brady throwing short, quick passes to avoid the Miami pass rush. He threw for 355 yards and a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns last week and he will do well against this weaker Miami secondary. Beating Tennessee and Houston is one thing, but Miami steps way up in class against the best team in the league now. The Patriots are 14-6-1 ATS in their past 21 home games.
This is a great matchup for an underrated New England defense that is allowing 21 points per game and ranks fourth in the league with 21 sacks. The Patriots have home field and the better coaching staff, which is a bigger plus for these Thursday games on such short rest. Lay the points on New England.
ATS pick: New England -7.5
Erin Rynning says: Campbell has been impressive so far, leading Miami to a 2-0 record while outscoring the opposition 82-36. Among the keys is a return to physical football; the Dolphins outrushed both the Texans and Titans by 294 yards in the two victories. However, the Patriots will be a monumental step up in class. Still, Miami's confidence is through the roof, as the team is buying into what Campbell is selling. The Dolphins' major offseason acquisition,Ndamukong Suh, was brought in for this very game. His job is to wreak havoc on the Patriots' offensive line and pressure Brady. I'm playing the Dolphins plus the generous points.
ATS pick: Dolphins +7.5
John Parolin:
Will Tom Brady throw an interception (-110 Y/N)
My initial reaction to this being a -110 pick 'em was total disbelief. Brady has thrown 16 touchdown passes and one interception, while the Dolphins have four games with an interception and two without this season. Both games under Campbell have produced interceptions, but Brady has been on fire.
When disbelief is the first reaction, give the prop that much more research . . . and there's a two-season sample size that supports a 50-50 split. In 2013 and 2014, Brady had 18 games with an interception and 14 without, including a pick in three of four games against the Dolphins. Plus, he will be throwing often Thursday night -- he dropped back on 91 percent of plays last week, the highest total by New England in 15 years. He dropped back on three-quarters of plays against Miami in the season opener last season, a number that could even rise given Suh's renewed presence in the middle of the Dolphin' defensive line. Brady has been terrific, but regression to the mean is the safe play -- especially in a Thursday night game.
The play: Yes
24.5 completions by Ryan Tannehill (-110 O/U)
The "completions to keep up with the Patriots' offense" theory doesn't hold a ton of weight, as the Patriots have allowed the under on this number in three of six games this season despite being the only team in the league with 28 points in every game played. This bet is about Miami and what the Dolphins will try to do against the Patriots' defense.
In two games under Campbell, Tannehill has 22 and 18 completions, respectively, partially because Campbell wants to run. The Dolphins have rushed on the second-highest percentage of plays from scrimmage in the league since Campbell took over before Week 5. That's also a pretty good way to attack the Patriots' defense. New England is allowing 4.5 yards per rush this season and 2.9 yards before contact per rush, both 24th in the league. The Patriots are a bottom-10 defense in yards per rush allowed, but rank in the top 12 in completion percentage allowed, yards per attempt allowed and Total QBR allowed. Throw in the added benefit that establishing the run would keep Brady on the sideline, and the tactic could both benefit Miami and actually work.
The play: Under
interesting