They are so scared I might actually have stumbled onto something it's just pathetic. All I know is I have won a shit ton more than I have lost and so have the people following me. I had a bad couple days recently, but who doesn't. Like I said before, sometimes you have to lose a battle to win the war.

A single bet of 40$ with a 60% chance in a day vs 4 10$ bets of 56-58% you're right, but that's not the end of your betting.
365 $40 bets with 60% chances in a year vs. 1460 $10 bets with 56-58% chances, yes this will give you a better result a majority of the time


You can test it out with a random number generator in excel if you want. Create 365 numbers and if the number is less than .6 give yourself +40 and -40 if it's greater than .6
then create 1460 numbers and if it's less than .57 give yourself +10 and greater than .57 minus 10

Run this like 50 times I bet my betting method comes out on top more frequently

This post was edited by sentries on Mar 1 2015 12:31pm

The end of my betting is in a couple weeks once the season ends, I'm not betting 365 days, but whatever makes you feel like you are right, because that's what this is all about, you trying to be right. Now its change my betting since you cant debunk my pick %, what's next?

This post was edited by SheriffCool on Mar 1 2015 12:33pm

Haha I'm not trying to prove you wrong here, im genuinely curious how accurate your model is. I wouldn't mind seeing your model accurately predict 60% winners because then I would buy it off you myself if you were interested in selling it.

I'm just selecting an alternative method assuming your model is correct which will increase your expected payout. If you believe your model you should listen to me...at least for next season. I can understand if you don't want to do what I said for 3 weeks

This post was edited by sentries on Mar 1 2015 12:40pm

I have been advised to not sell my formula and instead to start a site where people can pay a fee (like $100 a year) to follow my picks. Give a man a fish, he will eat for a day, but if you teach a man to fish he will eat for a lifetime. The residual income aspect seems to be the more profitable way to go, if that even ever becomes a viable option to actually try and market this. If it does prove to be something that is a consistent at winning, I might just go Ham for a season and put all the money I have in on it and then just retire a multimillionaire and say fuck everyone...lol

This post was edited by SheriffCool on Mar 1 2015 01:08pm

thats what I would do if your model is accurate. well, maybe not all my money but I'd have no problem placing $1000 bets every time on the 60% chances of winning (and im a poor college student). you could probably afford at least $5000 bets
Good luck the next couple weeks. I'll continue to analyze your bets whether you like it or not haha.
prepare to see me lurking

This post was edited by sentries on Mar 1 2015 01:18pm

I would probably split my savings 4 ways and do 4 $20k bets a day all season, and hope like hell I dont lose 4 the first day or at least my wife would probably cash in on my life insurance from suicide and have 1 million.

This post was edited by SheriffCool on Mar 1 2015 01:35pm

Please don't gamble your savings away sheriff lol. Variance is very cruel.

Well that's certainly never the intention. I would have to be damn sure of it before I took that kind of money out, my wife would be pissed as fuck even if I won....lol

When gambling you have to look at the expected value of a given wager. Whether it's poker, sports betting, etc.

Putting 1 $40 bet on a 60% chance of winning is better than putting 4 wagers on 56-58%. The problem in your case is in the short run placing only 1 bet will significantly increase your variance.

I mean just think of it like... 1000 bets @ $10 each with a 60% chance of winning. Or 1000 bets @ $10 each with a 56-58% chance of winning. Which would you expect to make more money with?



You're so annoying lol. People aren't hating, explaining a math concept to try and help him make more money isn't hating.