SMU PK is my only early play

Good luck fellas

Well I actually am waiting for 56 games past the first statistical anomaly data set

so far through 36, you are 19-16-1. Pretty good not overly exceptional.

And I told you I'd be doing this in an earlier post which you quoted not sure why you'd expect anything else


You have to use new data because if you keep using the statistical anomaly you will keep getting phony results. You should usually get approx. 60% wins for every randomly chosen large continuous subset of your overall historical betting. I predicted 30-26 and it looks like I won't be too far off

This post was edited by sentries on Mar 1 2015 11:33am

And as I said earlier, to get 30-26 consistently is pretty amazing and you should be proud of that

Final card
Smu PK
Pitt -2
Oregon +7.5

LMAO where are you pulling this shit out of? If everyone won 60% of a large subset then everyone would be a winner, would they not?

More like people should get 50%, which is why 'Vegas always wins' from the public because of juice. If you are supposed to get 60%, why is the % of overall winners in betting like 2 or 4% or w/e it is.


Idk what he's talking about..

I wouldn't expect you to understand what I said so I won't bother explaining it would be futile.

I will note to be fair a lot of your picks you make you state have less than 60% prediction accuracy (somewhere in the 50's)

Btw, if you really trust your model you should leverage your 60% bets up to $40 dollar bets and get rid of all your other bets to put the same desired amount of money on the line while having a better expected payout. Why bet on 55% chances of winning sometimes when 60% chances of winning are available

And to answer your question. Yes everyone would be winners obviously but I'm testing how well your model predicts not how well the general betting community predicts. I'm curious if you actually have an edge over the average bettor

This post was edited by sentries on Mar 1 2015 12:14pm

I'm not testing other bettors, I'm testing whether he can make 60%. I don't care about other bettors

Well thanks for trying to insult my intelligence again, since clearly you are superior in every way I could not possibly understand how you back peddle and try to change your argument to 60% when thats the best betting handicapper of all time. Why would I quadruple my wager on a 3% difference on my figures which are obviously simplistic and have no merit since I don't have a PHD in boring stats. Are you seriously trying to say it's smarter to bet $40 on a single 60% chance as opposed to 4-$10 bets on 56-58% chances? I'm no mathematician but that is just plain ignorant.

Just ignore the Haters man. Let's just keep rollin'.