Quote (Sopranos @ Nov 13 2017 03:21pm)
my record: 24-18
my picks for today: knicks +5, warriors -12.5 (keep an eye on this line, it will drop), the opposite of whatever hydro takes
knicks +5 reasoning: 63% of the pubic are on cavs, yet the line remains steady. gas the squares and join the sharps. cavs rank 6th in offense efficiency, but rank third from last in defense efficiency, while the knicks rank 15th in the league for offense and 13th in the league for defense. the cavs are 3-7 ats their last 10 and the knicks are 4-1 their last 5. porzingis has been playing lights out, and currently has the second highest ppg averaged in the league behind giannis. rose will be out for the cavs, shocker. the knicks are a better rebounding team, ranking 13th in the league, while the cavs rank 24th, so i expect a lot of second chance points for the knicks with kanter and o'quinn crashing the class. its hard backing the cavs with their miserably inconsistent play as of late, and siding with the home dog is generally a good bet, take the knicks as theyve been more consistent.
warriors -12.5 reasoning: before i explain why i like this pick, keep an eye on the line before betting. curry is still listed as questionable, but sources say he will sit this match out, so wait until right before tip off to grab this line at its lowest. now for why i like this pick. it doesnt matter if a star sits for the warriors, they have 8 more on the bench. when durant was out 2 games or so ago, the warriors still managed to cover the spread easily, so if curry sits tonight, i dont see why it would be any different. the warriors over their past 6 games have won by an average margin of 21.6 points, while covering the spread in all 6 of those games. they rank first in the league in ppg, first in fg%, first in 3point %, 2nd in fts and 14th in rebounds. the magic give up 110 points on the road while the warriors allow 108 at home, and forget about it on offense, the warriors even without curry will drown the magic in buckets. just for clarity, the current line is -12.5, but it will drop once curry is officially listed as out, and that is when you should grab the line.
the opposite of whatever hydro takes reasoning: kenny has been exceptionally cold, more so than his usual self. over the past week, he made 2 bets that i wasnt even considering betting, but said fuck it, fade hydro is always the play, and ended up ripping him to .34fg, he then receives a 500fg donate, and obviously all ins on the broncos, who proceed to get their booty holes blasted, resulting in another loss for the poor bastard. so looking at the recent trends, hydro is 0-162 ats, 0-162 s/u and ranks dead last in offense, defense efficiency, common sense, intelligence and life. logic is 140-0 ats and 140 s/u against hydro in the past decade, bettors are slamming logic as 100% of the people are on it, but even the sharps dont see any value in backing him. take the opposite of whatever he picks to ensure a positive day.
cavs -7.5 ( 4316.66 fg )
lmk