Quote (Sopranos @ Nov 3 2017 01:54pm)
My record: 15-11
Fade hydro record: 16-10
My picks: celtics +6.5, wizards -3.5, jazz -1.5 and jazz/raptors under 193
Celtics +6.5 reasoning: theyre 7-1 ats, theyre the best team in the east, and they have the best defense in the league, whats not to love? Clearly i must be missing something because i cant understand how okc is favored 6.5 points. Sure they have westbrook/pg/melo, but they havent been impressive really. They have a 3 headed monster on offense, but im curious to see how brad stevens tames that tonight. I think this total stays low tonight, below 205 for sure with how their defensive rankings match up, and giving the ats covering machines a 6.5 cushion is too good to pass up.
Wizards -3.5 reasoning: cavs have been sinking deeper and deeper each game they play, eventually there will be a legitimate time to panic. Sure its earlier in the season, and sure thomas hasnt even played yet, but no one expected the cavs to be getting their guts rearranged. They are an abysmal 1-7 ats, own the 27th worst defensive rating in the league (washington has the 20th for comparison) and rate 17th in the league, below league average, for points scored which is 105, meanwhile the wizards are fourth in the league at ppg scored at 112. The wizards at home are a different team then when they travel, with an offensive display of 117ppg. I know the cavs cant keep losing forever, and lebron is bound to drop some insane 42/15/12 stat line and backpack his team to a win, but they have shown zero reason to back them at the moment, so this is a fade play more than anything.
Jazz -1.5 reasoning: jazz own the second best defense overall in the league, and the first beat home defense in the league. The raptors have a 104ppg away average, and havent been as explosive as they were last year. Lowry has been mediocre thus far, leaving the burden of scoring primarily on derozan. The jazz grind out possessions, are patient, have a better rim protector and an impressive 5-0 su home record. I dont see how the raptors pull away in this one, jazz will smother them out.
Jazz/raptors under 195 reasoning: best home defense in the league meets a stagnant raptors offense. The jazz have hit the under 4 of their last 6 and the raptors 4 of their last 5. Expect the jazz to hold the ball until 3 seconds before taking a shot and chipping time off the clock, expect the raptors to take long jumpshots for an easy one and done possession.
Quote (Sopranos @ Nov 5 2017 03:54pm)
Adding jazz +6 to my picks for today
Quote (Sopranos @ Nov 7 2017 04:54pm)
my record: 19-15
fade hydro record: 19-11 (jesus christ)
my picks: jazz -6.5, nuggets -11, kings +11, grizzlies +3
jazz -6.5 reasoning: what a fluke loss to houston. had harden not 2.5x his seasonal ppg average, jazz would have been money, but when harden drops 56 points, there reall isnt anything you can do. i would feel confident taking that same exact pick again. but back to present day. the jazz at home are incredible, vastly different than when they play on the road. they are a top 3 defensive team, and allow the fewest points scored while playing at home. the sixers will be without embiid, so i expect gobert to dominate all game long with no one to effectively slow him down. the sixers have had next to no success in utah, going 1-9 su their last 10 games, and i think that trend continues tonight. the public is all over this game for some odd reason, and philly is the squares choice at 61%, but the line has moved in the opposite way, noticing the reverse line movement, gas the squares and take the jazz.
nuggets -11 reasoning: nets on a back to back after getting cock slapped by the suns, now must travel to the mile high club and play the nuggets for a second time in the past week, after already getting cock slapped at home by them? okay. done. denver's three biggest offensive strengths are their ability to shoot the three, their ability to score fastbreak points and their ability to score second chance points. they currently rank 9th in three point shooting %, 5th in FBPs per 100 and 3rd in second chance points per 100. brooklyn on the other hand, allows teams to shoot the 11th best three point percentage (37.1%), score the 10th most FBPs per 100 and score the 5th most second chance points per 100. also taking the under as teams who play a back to back that concludes in denver have hit the under 12 of the last 17 times.
kings +11 reasoning: honestly, just a gut feeling. they blow dick so just fade this pick, but im taking it regardless.
grizzlies +3 reasoning: 60% of bets are on portland, but the line moved in favor of grizzlies, indications of reverse line movement tells me to take the grizzlies. grizzlies own the third best rated overall defense in the league, theyre a slow grinder team thatll utilize the entirety of the shot clock to eek out possessions, vs portlands upbeat tempo game play. i think the grizzlies can slow the pace down and control it, forcing portland to adapt their play.
Celtics ats won
Wiz ats lost
Jazz ats lost
Jazz game went over
1-3
But next post only counts 2 losses
How many more alternate win / loss ratios can be found in this shit show?
Obv mine since u add what u please of my bets to make it look bad. Seems ur doin watever to attempt makes urs look better. Typical beta
This post was edited by HydroPK on Nov 9 2017 12:29am