Only insurance you get is if hydro takes the opposite of my pick

My record: 18-13
Fade hydro record: 18-11

My picks: pacers/knicks over 215.5, celtics/magic under 208, okc -2.5

Pacers/knicks over 215.5 reasoning: line seems oddly low imo. Pacers average 113ppg on the road, while surrendering 112ppg on the road, the knicks average 109ppg and give up 106ppg at home. Turner came back last game and had a tad of rust, but i expect that to be handled by today. Pacers over has hit 13 of the last 14 games on the road and the over has hit 6 of the last 7 times at home for the knicks. Porzingis should feast today since both teams like to push the pace and the pacers will most likely struggle to stop him, same goes for turner, provided his rust has lessened, he should feast.

Celtics/magic under 208 reasoning: best defense in the league vs a streaky offense? Yes please. Celtics allow 93ppg on the road while the magic allow 105ppg at home. Celtics offense generates 98ppg on the road while the magic average 109ppg at home. The magic have been over performing to start the season, and i expect that against the celtics defense that the offense lays an egg. Celtics neutralized okc in their last game, and if they can do that against a superior offensive team, i am confident they can do that against a streaky magics offense. The under has hit 5 of the last 7 games for the celtics, while the under has hit 4 of the last 5 for the magic.

Okc -2.5 reasoning: a 3 headed monster vs a 2 headed monster, which will win? My moneys on okc. Theyre a more potent defensive team, allowing a staunch 93ppg on the road while the blazers allow 102ppg at home. Okc and portland tally 103ppg allowed on the road and at home respectively. Okc is 4-2 ats last 6 games while the blazers are 0-5 ats their last 5. With each game that passes, okc continues to glue together, becoming more comfortable with their new offense. The blazers on the other hand, are looking pretty inconsistent. They lost convincingly to the raptors at home and struggled heavily beating the lolakers in their last outting. If either dame or cj have an off night, the blazers are dead in the water, they have no reliable third scoring option. I expect okc to stretch the blazers defense thin tonight, it will be hard for a mediocre defensive team to cover melo, george and westbrook.

This post was edited by Sopranos on Nov 5 2017 01:42pm

Adding jazz +6 to my picks for today

Why

what i'm getting out of this thread is that i can simply ignore your paragraphs of analysis and simply fade hydro and i'll have a better record than you

was that the ultimate point of this?

Jazz have won su the last 4 of 5 vs rockets, third best scoring defense, most steals per 100 possessions, third in blocks in the league. Rockets are the most reliant team on 3 pointers, but are shooting it at 31% which is third worst in the league, jazz defend the 3 extremely well and can smother harden on offense.



Yes and no.

Yes because there is nothing more reliable than fading the biggest curse in existence. No because hydro tails some of his picks, i research my own and its more reliable in the long run (i assume) then just fading the curse. But its pretty close 😂

my record: 19-15
fade hydro record: 19-11 (jesus christ)

my picks: jazz -6.5, nuggets -11, kings +11, grizzlies +3

jazz -6.5 reasoning: what a fluke loss to houston. had harden not 2.5x his seasonal ppg average, jazz would have been money, but when harden drops 56 points, there reall isnt anything you can do. i would feel confident taking that same exact pick again. but back to present day. the jazz at home are incredible, vastly different than when they play on the road. they are a top 3 defensive team, and allow the fewest points scored while playing at home. the sixers will be without embiid, so i expect gobert to dominate all game long with no one to effectively slow him down. the sixers have had next to no success in utah, going 1-9 su their last 10 games, and i think that trend continues tonight. the public is all over this game for some odd reason, and philly is the squares choice at 61%, but the line has moved in the opposite way, noticing the reverse line movement, gas the squares and take the jazz.

nuggets -11 reasoning: nets on a back to back after getting cock slapped by the suns, now must travel to the mile high club and play the nuggets for a second time in the past week, after already getting cock slapped at home by them? okay. done. denver's three biggest offensive strengths are their ability to shoot the three, their ability to score fastbreak points and their ability to score second chance points. they currently rank 9th in three point shooting %, 5th in FBPs per 100 and 3rd in second chance points per 100. brooklyn on the other hand, allows teams to shoot the 11th best three point percentage (37.1%), score the 10th most FBPs per 100 and score the 5th most second chance points per 100. also taking the under as teams who play a back to back that concludes in denver have hit the under 12 of the last 17 times.

kings +11 reasoning: honestly, just a gut feeling. they blow dick so just fade this pick, but im taking it regardless.

grizzlies +3 reasoning: 60% of bets are on portland, but the line moved in favor of grizzlies, indications of reverse line movement tells me to take the grizzlies. grizzlies own the third best rated overall defense in the league, theyre a slow grinder team thatll utilize the entirety of the shot clock to eek out possessions, vs portlands upbeat tempo game play. i think the grizzlies can slow the pace down and control it, forcing portland to adapt their play.

3-2

my record: 22-17 (57% win rate)
fade hydro record: 19-12 (61% win rate lulz)

my picks: celtics/lakers under 212.5, warriors/wolves under 228.5

celtics/lakers under 212.5 reasoning: celtics have the best defense in the league, lakers are an enigma still on offense. ive taken the lakers under three times in this thread and all 3 picks hits, today is no exception. the celtics allow 94ppg, while the lakers allow 107. celtics score 103 on an average night, while the lakers score 107. horford is out tonight for the celtics, helping solidify my liking for this play. the under has hit 10 of the last 15 lakers games, and 6 of the last 9 games boston has played. 212.5 is the second highest total given to the celtics, the highest being 216.5 vs the 76ers, which went under by 22 points. in fact the highest total score the celtics have recorded was against atlanta in their last game, which concluded at 217, but mind you that was on a back to back, so the score of that game is slightly inflated. no other game the celtics have played this season has surpassed 212.5 points, in fact, only 3 other games the celtics have played eclipsed 200 points, and it was against the cavs (201 points), bucks (208 points) and spurs (202 points), 3 teams that are vastly superior offensively/overall than the lakers. so with all that in mind, i dont see how a young lakers squad, traveling through 3 time zones, scores at will against the best defense in the league, slam this hard.

warriors/wolves under 228.5 reasoning: the under has hit the last 7 of 10 times these teams have played. the wolves arent the best ball movement team, in terms of assists, in the league, theyre ranked 14th in the league, while the warriors are ranked first. the warriors defense should be capable enough to slow down butler and wiggins, key word being should. when the warriors played the heat 2 nights ago, they had amazing defense, they shut down whiteside and made him obsolete, cruising to a 17 point win. i dont think they win by 17 tonight, because towns is on the other team, and the warriors biggest weakness is dominant bigs. what really makes this a lock play in my eyes, is durant being ruled out for a sore quad tonight. with kd out, mccaw, young and iggy will pick up the slack, and as good as they have been, they are no kevin durant. if curry or klay have an off shooting night, this game will go south of the total quick.

This post was edited by Sopranos on Nov 8 2017 02:23pm