My record: 15-11
Fade hydro record: 16-10
My picks: celtics +6.5, wizards -3.5, jazz -1.5 and jazz/raptors under 193
Celtics +6.5 reasoning: theyre 7-1 ats, theyre the best team in the east, and they have the best defense in the league, whats not to love? Clearly i must be missing something because i cant understand how okc is favored 6.5 points. Sure they have westbrook/pg/melo, but they havent been impressive really. They have a 3 headed monster on offense, but im curious to see how brad stevens tames that tonight. I think this total stays low tonight, below 205 for sure with how their defensive rankings match up, and giving the ats covering machines a 6.5 cushion is too good to pass up.
Wizards -3.5 reasoning: cavs have been sinking deeper and deeper each game they play, eventually there will be a legitimate time to panic. Sure its earlier in the season, and sure thomas hasnt even played yet, but no one expected the cavs to be getting their guts rearranged. They are an abysmal 1-7 ats, own the 27th worst defensive rating in the league (washington has the 20th for comparison) and rate 17th in the league, below league average, for points scored which is 105, meanwhile the wizards are fourth in the league at ppg scored at 112. The wizards at home are a different team then when they travel, with an offensive display of 117ppg. I know the cavs cant keep losing forever, and lebron is bound to drop some insane 42/15/12 stat line and backpack his team to a win, but they have shown zero reason to back them at the moment, so this is a fade play more than anything.
Jazz -1.5 reasoning: jazz own the second best defense overall in the league, and the first beat home defense in the league. The raptors have a 104ppg away average, and havent been as explosive as they were last year. Lowry has been mediocre thus far, leaving the burden of scoring primarily on derozan. The jazz grind out possessions, are patient, have a better rim protector and an impressive 5-0 su home record. I dont see how the raptors pull away in this one, jazz will smother them out.
Jazz/raptors under 195 reasoning: best home defense in the league meets a stagnant raptors offense. The jazz have hit the under 4 of their last 6 and the raptors 4 of their last 5. Expect the jazz to hold the ball until 3 seconds before taking a shot and chipping time off the clock, expect the raptors to take long jumpshots for an easy one and done possession.