This whole thread is a joke

A bunch of angry geeks raging at this sheriff guy for having confidence in his picks bc they are jealous...the only positive is that these shit stains hopefully divest themselves of their social incompetence here so that they don't drag down society irl even more so


Fucking lol

This post was edited by Bubbler on Feb 23 2015 11:20am

I'm picking teams my math says have 55%+ chance to win. Obviously nothing is 100%, but Stuart is just grasping at straws, saying it only works for ncaa II teams is completely false, as I picked Oregon to upset Utah (#9 in the nation) yesterday, made the Michigan State pick yesterday, He is just a chump who never bets but is always a winner in his own mind. I'm sure this is not the formula to be a millionaire, but winning is winning and I'm not playing pin the tail on the donkey here. There is a lot more to it than luck and I don't need anyone's approval to keep winning consistently because I'm not guessing, I'm making informed decisions based on the the mathematical facts. This is the first season I have tried using this formula and it is working so far to help me make better picks and find mis matched teams. Sure I'm not going to pick every game right and I'm not asking anyone to follow me or buy in to it, I'm simply sharing because many have asked after watching me pick games in their threads or other peoples threads and hit to share my picks for the day. Anyone that has followed me has made money, because I have been, plain and simple. 42-14 NCAA games since Jan 28th and I'm not picking the gimme one easy game of the day, one game a time, I'm picking 4-6 games most days I make my picks.

This post was edited by SheriffCool on Feb 23 2015 11:47am

so I did the math, assuming a probability of picking correctly 50% of the time, there is a 1/8530 chance of picking 42 correct games or more. Statistically unlikely, but not impossible. Lets say your model actually correctly picks games 55% of the time, that number drops significantly (i haven't studied combinatorics for awhile so I don't feel like calculating this)

regardless, people hit 1/8530 chances its not impossible that your "model" is just complete luck
that being said 1/8530 is pretty low, so I wouldn't doubt that your model may actually have some predictive power to it (perhaps picking games correctly 53% or 54% of the time which is pretty remarkable actually)

this is a rather interesting read that somewhat relates to this topic if any of you are bored
http://home.business.utah.edu/finmll/fin6350/foolsgold.pdf

article is basically giving an example of how sometimes statistical results can mislead us, as is most likely the case with your model

This post was edited by sentries on Feb 23 2015 11:55am

okay i used an online calculator to find probability of getting 42 out of 56 or more with a 55% probability of correctly predicting

its about 1/617 for anyone who is interested

summary of my thoughts: whatever you are doing is quite possibly giving you somewhat of an edge, but it is more than likely only a few % points and not anywhere near 60% prediction power that I think you've mentioned several times

This post was edited by sentries on Feb 23 2015 12:18pm

i already tried explaining to him that if someone can accurately predict winners 55-60% of the time that he'd be a multi millionaire, but his online math degree prohibited him from understanding me

just let him think he's onto something at this point, it will just be all the sweeter when he finally realizes what a joke he truly is

Why do you guys keep spamming the thread? Get lost. Who cares if it's luck or not? The picks are winning and I'm following and I'm making money. I want him to keep posting them so I can keep following.

Paulo Coelho is a virgin.

Jesus Christ, now if I comment that someone is doing well I'm "giving them my approval?" Lol.

he's just dick riding sheriff, don't worry

once sheriff quits or is voted out of list runner nobody will coddle his balls anymore