Early games
Liking the Texans as home-dogs, ideally at +3. Their defense should be good enough to keep this close. Texans s/u seems like good value, since these teams are about even imo.
I want to bet the Jags +7.5, since their defense has been pretty good lately, but I just can't trust Bortles. He's just so bad... Still, this game shouldn't be more than a TD, even with how bad Bortles is. We'll see
If you don't care at all about being square, then the Titans -6 > Bears seems like a lock. Vegas has been getting killed on highly-bet games the past few weeks... either they're due to clean house or this is another bad line. I'm thinking Vegas may not have adjusted enough for Cutler being replaced by Barkley, but then again, it's not like Cutler was a good QB or anything, so maybe the replacement value isn't all that different... It's generally a good idea to avoid betting on games with an 85% lean, and this one's at 92 lol
I like Cincinnati +4.5 if you can get it. This will be a close game with the Ravens secondary without Jimmy Smith, and their offense still being garbage. Bengals offense is garbage too, but they usually play the Ravens well. I also like the Under on this game as well--there should be little scoring from both teams.
Lean on the Browns +8. This is more of a factor of the Giants being tremendously overrated. It makes little sense to me that they would be 8 point road favorites.
Also, I'm noticing the Rams/Saints spread shot up to 9. Goff should have a much easier time passing on the Saints' terrible defense, and the Rams still have a good defense despite last week's implosion. I really want to be pissed off at the Rams for last week's debacle, but this spread just seems too high. I'd like to know more about why this spread shot up...
Afternoon games
If you don't care about being square, Seattle -6 seems like a lock. I really see nothing to fear other than a Vegas fix or a back-door cover. Public is 82% on Seattle, so bet with caution.
Oakland -3.5 seems like a lock. It's as if the public is still perceiving the Panthers as the SB contender they were last year while overlooking that they suck this year and will be missing Luke Kuechly, Ryan Kalil and Michael Oher. However, the motivational factor is in the Panthers' favor (their season is on the line) and slightly against the Raiders, who probably don't need to win this game to win their division. Plus the long trip to the other side of the country is a factor, and this comes on the heels of a long trip to Mexico. Sharps are heavily on CAR, for what it's worth.
Night Game
The Chiefs are just dealing with waaaay too many injuries to contend in this game. Plus the Broncos are getting healthy at the right time, getting back Talib and Wolfe. This seems like an excellent time to buy low on the Broncos as they get healthy and sell high on the Chiefs before everyone sees how inept their defense is due to all of these injuries. Broncos -3.5 seems like the right side.
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In terms of confidence: Broncos -3.5 > Ravens/Bengals Under > Cincinnati +4.5 > Oakland -3.5 > Texans +3 > Rams +9 > rest (which I probably won't bet, but might be teaser fodder) inb4 tldr
This post was edited by Terps on Nov 27 2016 01:09am