My record: 13-7
Fade hydro record: 12-9
My picks: jazz/mavs under 190, mavs +8.5, warriors -5.5 and blazers -2
Jazz/mavs under 190 reasoning: love taking the jazz under for most games, as evident by my last pick, which was an easy fucking lock. The jazz/laker game finished 30ish points below the total, why vegas would total that game at 203 is beyond me. The lakers are a better offensive team than the mavs, but allow 12 more points scored than the mavs, while the mavs average 10 less ppg than the lakers. What this means to me is, the mavs will score less or damn near close to what the lakers did, which was 81 points, but will hold the jazz to lesser points than the lakers did, which was 96, telling me the under should be a lock. The mavs under has hit 4 out of the last 6, while the jazz under has hit 5 out of the last 6. Mavs average 91ppg on the road and allow 101ppg, while the jazz average 99ppg and allow 88ppg. The jazz also play at the slowest pace in the league, so this is going under.
Mavs +8.5 reasoning: dallas is 6-3 ats vs the jazz in the long run. The jazz have no go to scorer since hayward departed. They rely on favors/gobert/hood to generate them points, and currently it is still the “figuring it out” phase for the jazz offense. The mavs may be 1-6 overall, but 4 of those losses were decided by 9 points or less. The jazz arent a fast, run and gun team, 8.5 is a lot to cover for a jazz team, yes they beat the lakers by 15, but up until the last 3 minutes of the fourth, it was neck and neck and the lakers very well could have stolen the win, but the lakers, as they typically do, fold under pressure and forget how to score. The mavs have experienced players on their roster, thisll be a closer game decided by a bucket or two max.
Warriors -5.5 reasoning: 1-6 ats doesnt build a lot of faith in taking the warriors, but that record is deceiving. They had a very brutal start to the season in terms of scheduling and if you noticed from last year, vegas typically overvalues the warriors and people buy into the whole “hurr durr its the warriors, 58 point blowout incoming” but theyve added new pieces to their system, and kerr is toying with rotations still. That said, i think the loss yesterday to the pistons (as much as a fluke that it was) lights a fire under the warriors asses and they come out swinging. On paper, the warriors have the clear advantage in pg/sg blake is good, but kd at pf is >, gallinari is a more potent scorer than green, but greens defense is >>>>, dj at center is their only clear cut advantageous position. Had the warriors not turned the ball over 20+ times last night, the pistons would have been ass raped. Warriors should bounce back and remind the league theyre the best tonight. They are 10-0 su vs the clippers, with a 12 point average margin of victory and are 4-1 ats their last 5 games vs the clippers.
Blazers -2 reasoning: blazers are hot as shit at home, raptors are wrapping up a west coast trip where they have been underperforming, that lakers game was fucking atrocious. Blazers are 4-1 their last 5 games and 7-2 the last 9 games against the raptors at home. Cj and lilard have been stellar so far, while lowry seems to be in a funk. The raptors are hurting at center, and i think thatll cause a problem when going up against nurkic tonight.