The math finds them, I don't. I run all the NCAA games available and then pick the ones with the highest percent chance to cover according to the numbers I come up with. I try to bet on games that I feel the numbers give me a high 50% to low 60% chance of covering. There is more disparity in college than pros, as far as the caliber of teams and I use that to my advantage to bet. It's not rocket science and you don't need a degree to figure it out, it's simply playing the odds that are in your favor. I don't bet on teams I like anymore, that's brought me up like 20-25% I would estimate. You can't bet with your heart and expect a team to cover because you like them or want them too. I liked Michigan +8 yesterday but I avoided it because Michigan is my team. The only team I homer is the Lions but they have covered the spread like 70% of the time last 2-3 seasons.

I told myself I would never bet with my heart either... Until my Denver Broncos were in the super bowl 2 years ago and I had to ride with them lol. Damn so you're running the daily 25 or so college games? You're probably in the 1% here on jsp, of people that actually have some sort of model they try to consistently use lol.

19 games today I ran, only confident in 3 of the 4 picks. St. John's might beat Xavier, but the numbers say Xavier should cover. There's always the human element that screws shit up. A guy has an off night and the team doesn't come up with their average score, or a guy gets in foul trouble early and changes the course of the game, or some guy who averages 4 points, puts up 20. All I can do is try to make the most educated picks I can and hope for the best after that. If you pay close enough attention, most of the picks I have lost, my team won but didn't cover the spread by a couple points or less usually.

42-14
Todays Picks:
Norfolk St -7 vs Delaware st
Northwestern st s/u @ nicholls st
Xavier +2 vs St.John's
Morehead st. -7.5 @ Tennessee st.

This post was edited by SheriffCool on Feb 23 2015 06:26am

so let me get this straight

you came up with a master formula for gambling, but it only works on D-II college level or below?

sounds legit

The northwestern at game isn't available. Man some of these smaller games I can't play. I'll still be riding the other 3. Gl.

I don't pick the games, just the winners hopefully.. LOL

vp vs FSid3


?!??????

I can at least you can understand Stuarts stupid shit, even though he is just taking shots in the dark...However this might win the award for "what in the fuck" post of the thread.

Sorry but if it was so simple to construct a model that someone with no formal training in econometrics can derive it everybody would use it which would change the spreads to what is optimal

Basically the efficient markets hypothesis except for gambling

Your streak is nothing more than shear luck which is nice... good job! But unfortunately Stuart is correct :/

This post was edited by sentries on Feb 23 2015 11:07am

What makes MVP so entitled that he thinks sherrif needs his approval to tell him he's doing good.

What a joke.