I'm just a Michigan upset over Auburn away, provided the Houston Cougars handle their business against Purdue, from all four of my final four teams reaching the Elite 8. The difficult part will be Michigan beating Auburn tonight but crazier things have happened in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan has the two 7 footers (7'1 Goldin and 7'0 Wolf) inside with enough athleticism at guard to match up with Auburn. They can beat Auburn if Auburn has an off-shooting night. The Michigan bigs have to play with some swagger, dominate the paint and clean up the glass.
Houston’s been a machine this tournament, rolling past No. 16 SIU-Edwardsville 88-54, No. 8 Gonzaga 76-62, and No. 4 Purdue 62-60 in a gritty Sweet 16 win on March 28. They’re on a 15-game win streak, boasting the nation’s second-best defense (43.2% 2-point defense) and a top-10 offense (39.8% from three). LJ Cryer (18 points vs. Purdue) and Jamal Shead (lockdown guard play) give them clutch scoring and tenacity. Their physicality and rebounding (top-10 offensive rebound rate) wear teams down, and Kelvin Sampson’s track record—five straight Sweet 16s—shows they don’t flinch in big spots. But that Purdue game was tight; they shot just 37.5% and nearly let it slip, hinting at vulnerability if their offense stalls.
Tennessee, meanwhile, has peaked at the right time. They crushed No. 15 Wofford 79-54, No. 7 UCLA 67-58, and No. 3 Kentucky 78-65 in the Sweet 16, riding a nine-game win streak. Their defense is elite too (third nationally in efficiency), and Chaz Lanier’s been a flamethrower—22 points and 5 threes against Kentucky. Zakai Zeigler’s playmaking (8 assists vs. Kentucky) keeps them humming, and their SEC title game run (beating Florida) proves they can handle top-tier foes. But their offense can bog down against physical teams—Houston’s style mirrors Florida’s, who beat them twice this year—and they allow a high rate of three-point attempts, which Houston could exploit with shooters like Cryer.
This feels like a defensive slugfest: Houston’s second in defensive efficiency, Tennessee’s third. Both play tough, both crash the glass, and both have guards who can take over. Houston’s edge might be their deeper tournament experience and home-state motivation (Final Four’s in San Antonio). Tennessee’s hot streak and Lanier’s scoring could counter that, but their inconsistency against top defenses is a red flag. Posts on X lean both ways—some see Tennessee’s momentum carrying them, others think Houston’s too stout.
Prediction: Houston wins, 64-60. The Cougars’ defense clamps down late, Cryer hits a dagger three, and Sampson outcoaches Rick Barnes in crunch time. Tennessee keeps it close, but Houston’s execution and physical edge tip it. They’re heading to the Final Four—first time since 1984. What’s your gut say on this one?