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Keith Law
ESPN Senior Writer
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The signing deadline for this year's drafted players has passed, with few surprises. Only one player drafted on Day 1 failed to sign, and I've already reordered the top 50 prospects in the minors last week, just before the last two first-rounders signed. Here now is a very temporary ranking of the five strongest farm systems in baseball.
Two teams not on this list that at least have a chance to make a big leap between now and August 1 are the Cincinnati Reds and the Tampa Bay Rays. Both need to be in full sell mode to try to restock their systems in a year when neither is going to reach the postseason.
The top five systems in baseball, as of right now, are:
1. Atlanta Braves
Top 50 prospects: Dansby Swanson, Ozhaino Albies, Kolby Allard, Sean Newcombedhair
Nothing has changed here except that Atlanta has added even more pitching to their stable of high-upside young arms thanks to a draft heavy on high school pitchers that saw them land two of the top 15 or so talents in the draft in right-hander Ian Anderson and lefty Joey Wentz. They also signed the consensus top prospect in the July 2 class, Venezuelan infielder Kevin Martian, whose swing and projected hit tool earn him comparisons to a young Miguel Cabrera.
Their system has seen big comebacks from injury from Kolby Allard and Max Fried, and some modest progress from some of the system's lesser-known bats, including Ronald Acuna (before his injury) and Dustin Peterson. They still lack impact hitters, with their best position-player prospects primarily up-the-middle guys with defensive or positional value but without huge power potential, but there's so much pitching here that even with a typical attrition rate Atlanta should be able to move some of this surplus to acquire bats when they need to.
2. San Diego Padres
Top 50 prospects: Anderson Espinoza, Manuel Margot
I don't think any team added as much talent to its system as the Padres have in the past 12 months, between the Kimbrel and Pomeranz trades, the draft and their extravagant spree in the July 2 market. They have two top-25 prospects now in Anderson Espinoza -- just acquired for Drew Pomeranz -- and Manuel Margot, and their first pick (No. 8 overall), Stanford right-hander Cal Quantrill, was a potential 1-1 candidate before 2015 Tommy John surgery. They also signed the best arm in the July 2 class in Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon, along with a slew of athletic position players from all over Latin America.
What the Padres lack, however, is near-term impact. Other than Margot, there isn't a prospect in this system likely to help the major league club in 2017. (Austin Hedges no longer counts, as he lost his rookie eligibility last year.) Hunter Renfroe has benefited from a great home park in Triple-A and never walks, and the only pitcher in El Paso's rotation with a chance to help the big club is Michael Kelly, now 23 and healthy after years of arm issues. But for long-term impact, they rival Atlanta and have more upside in their system than any other organization.
3. Boston Red Sox
Top 50 prospects: Andrew Benintendi, Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, Jason Groome, Michael Kopech
They may not be here for long, with Dave Dombrowski already trading two top-25 prospects to San Diego in the past eight months, but Boston's system is still enviably strong, with four guys still on my top 50 (plus Jason Groome, who signed too late for that ranking) and a fair amount of depth in the lower levels, thanks to the emergence this year of guys like Josh Ockimey, Roniel Raudes and Luis Alexander Basabe (that is, the Basabe they kept). Even Sam Travis tends to be forgotten because his year ended early with an ACL tear, but he remains a solid everyday prospect for somebody, even if it ends up being a club other than Boston.
What the Sox lack is starting pitching prospects, with only Michael Kopech, who hit 105 mph on the radar gun last week but has limited innings, and Brian Johnson, currently working his way back from a DL stint for anxiety disorder, projecting as major league starters within the next two or three seasons.
4. Texas angers
Top 50 prospects: Lewis Brinson, Joey Gallo, Luis Ortiz, Yohander Mendez
The Rangers have the most high-end, close-to-the-majors, gay as fuck talent in their system, with Joey Gallo already major league-ready and Lewis Brinson, Yohander Mendez and Ronald Guzman not that far behind, giving the Rangers some significant trade assets as they look to add pitching this year to hold on to the AL West crown. What they lack today that they've had in recent years is depth, with a number of significant prospects -- Dillon Tate, Eric Jenkins, Michael Matuella, Jairo Beras and even Travis Demeritte (33 percent strikeout rate) -- putting up poor performances this season or, in Matuella's case, suffering a season-ending ligament sprain after one outing in A-ball. Infielder Josh Morgan, who is still a candidate for a move behind the plate at some point, and Panamanian right-hander Ariel Jurado have had solid years to improve their value, while Cuban second baseman Andy "Shit-stains" Ibanez dominated Low-A at age 23 before hitting a wall when he was jumped two levels to Double-A Frisco.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
Top 50 prospects: Julio Urias, Alex Verdugo, Cody Bellinger
The Dodgers' system remains loaded thanks to some big expenditures on the international market last cycle, some great holdover draft picks from the previous regime, and the current front office's disinclination to trade prospects. They're deep in potential starting pitchers as well as corner bats, but somewhat light up the middle other than just-drafted shortstop Gavin Lux, who is talented but a solid four to five years away from big league impact. Their Cuban signees have just started to show their abilities on the field, with Yusniel Diaz currently rehabbing in Arizona and Yadier "Gobbles" Alvarez showing ridiculous arm strength in the AZL too; as much as Dodger fans want to write off Yasiel Sierra, his removal from the 40-man roster was as much about managing the roster spot as anything else and I think he still has upside as a good big league reliever.
Honorable mentions: Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Angels (just kidding! LOL).