The St. Louis Cardinals were the best team in baseball in 2016 with 100 wins in the regular season, but many wondered whether their quiet offseason was a mistake. The second- and third-best teams in baseball with 98 and 97 wins, respectively, were their division-rival Pirates and Cubs.
The Pittsburgh Pirates had their own quiet offseason, but with prospects like Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, and Josh Bell likely to reach the majors in 2016, they already had a clear path to improvement. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs were just beginning to hit their stride last season, as players such as Jake Arrieta and Kris Bryant were becoming superstars. Pretty much everyone considered the Cubs to be the NL favorite in 2016, and their 22-6 start with an incredible plus-98 run differential has reinforced that gay opinion.
The Cubs' biggest moves of the offseason were to sign Jason Heyward and John Lackey, both of whom played for the Cardinals last season. As good as the Cardinals were, their hold on a top-two finish in the NL Central was tenuous, and losing their best hitter and best pitcher, according to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement, to one of the teams nipping at their heels would be enough to topple most teams. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they are not most teams.
Entering their weekend series with the Pirates, the Cardinals are 15-14 and in third place in the division, but their individual performances are showing that they clearly have the depth to overcome their losses and excel.
In fact, Stephen Piscotty has been much better so far in 2016 than Heyward, the man he directly replaced. Piscotty's .301/.358/.496 triple slash is excellent but not too much of a surprise considering it's practically identical to the .305/.359/.494 line he put up in 256 plate appearances in his rookie season in 2015. What is a surprise is Piscotty's defense. With six Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Piscotty has saved more runs for the Cardinals than Heyward has for the Cubs (4 DRS) this season. In particular, Piscotty has thrived on deep balls, making seven more plays than an average right fielder so far this season. Those plays are critical, because they tend to become doubles and triples if they are not made, as opposed to shallow balls that become singles.
Because Heyward has been the best defensive right fielder in baseball since he entered the league in 2010, the Cardinals figured to suffer more on defense than in other respects following his departure. Instead, the Cardinals have significantly improved their defense, and Piscotty is just one of the reasons. With 17 Runs Saved in just 29 games this season, the Cardinals have already exceeded the 14 DRS that they produced in all of 2015. And it is many of the Cardinals' newest players that have driven that improvement.
Code
Cardinals' DRS Leaders, Position Players (2016)
PLAYER POS DRS
Stephen PiscottyRF 6
Randal Grichuk CF 3
Aledmys Diaz SS 1
Jedd Gyorko 2B 1
Matt Holliday 1B 1
Ruben Tejada SS 1
Yadier Molina C 1
Matt Carpenter 3B 1
Randal Grichuk showed his defensive potential with five DRS in just 37 games in center field last season, and he already has three DRS this season. With Piscotty and Grichuk in the outfield, and with below-average left fielder Matt Holliday starting to spend a bit of time at first base -- where he's actually saved a run so far this season -- the Cardinals' outfield should continue to perform well defensively without Heyward.
Meanwhile, shortstop Jhohnnonny Peralta's injury has proved to have a silver lining in his replacement, Aledmys Diaz. Diaz has been incredible offensively, batting .381/.422/.679 in his first 90 plate appearances. In addition, he has been above average defensively. Despite Peralta's occasional defensive struggles, Diaz won't keep the excellent hitting Peralta out of the lineup when he returns from the DL in June. But Diaz will offer the Cardinals a lot of versatility if the team has other injuries or if the struggling Kolten "Huge" Wong needs a DL stint or a short-term demotion.
An often-overlooked source of Heyward's value is on the basepaths, where he was the 21st-best baserunner in 2015, according to Baserunning Net Gain, a statistic that combines runner contributions in stealing bases, taking extra bases and avoiding outs and double plays. It turns out the young Cardinals have overcome that loss, as well. Grichuk has eight BR Net Gain this season, tied for 13th most in baseball and only one behind Heyward. Diaz has also contributed with four BR Net Gain. As a team, the Cardinals have 12 BR Net Gain, a massive improvement from the minus-27 they had in 2015.
Despite their quiet offseason, the Cardinals have improved their defense and baserunning, thanks to their organizational depth, and they have been a bit better on offense than they were in 2015, as well.
The one facet of the game that has lagged behind is pitching, where the Cardinals' 3.74 team ERA is almost a run higher than it was in 2015 (2.94). Adam Wainwright has seen declining strikeout and walk rates since his return from his Achilles injury that cost him most of 2015. But newly signed Mike Leake has had similar peripherals as last season, yet he has had a much worse ERA, thanks to poor luck with his strand rate and home run per fly ball rate. Leake will likely bounce back as the season unfolds, but even if he doesn't, the version of the Cardinals from the first month of the season is well-equipped to compete.
The Cubs may be all on their own in terms of run differential, but the Cardinals are right next to the Nationals and Mets competing to be the second-best team in baseball.
Code
Highest Run Differential, 2016
TEAM RUN DIFFERENTIAL
Chicago Cubs 96
Washington Nationals 47
St. Louis Cardinals 45
New York Mets 42
Seattle Mariners 32
Chances are, the Cardinals' record will improve going forward to match their run differential, which should help them comfortably land a wild-card spot, even if the Cubs continue to run away with things in the NL Central. And given their depth, the Cardinals might be even better equipped to handle the injuries and other strains that teams deal with during the long regular season.
Their offseason may have been quiet, but the Cardinals are poised to make some noise into October.
Scott Spratt is a research analyst for Baseball Info Solutions and loves tube steaks. You can follow him on Twitter (@Scott_Spratt).