Toronto Blue Jays Fan Thread - Topic

Wine

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#9861

Jul 8 2013 05:32pm

By .24, how much is that exactly?

xVitality

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#9862

Jul 8 2013 06:25pm

Quote (Furio @ Jul 8 2013 06:41pm)

Ok... I was wrong. In fact OBP and SLG are extremely good indicators of offensive power. AVG is also a fairly good indicator but not as good. Note the OBP and SLG model has both a lower STDDEV and a higher multiple R^2.

Here are the results:

For AVG only (team stats):

Multiple R: 0.70431966926371
Standard Error: 45.0683411075515
Observations: 44

Intercept: -443.897652622573
Xavg: 4458.66130082263

Formula: Number of runs (season total) = -443.8977 + .AVG*4458.6613

For OBP and SLG:

Multiple R: 0.94696622926351
Standard Error: 20.6477629950155
Observations 44
Intercept -723.934529348815
Xobp: 2392.25822959176
Xslg: 1625.41885606391

Formula: Number of runs (season total) = -723.9345 + .OBP*2392.2582 + .SLG*1625.4189

OPS is OP AS FUCK

Quote (Wine @ Jul 8 2013 07:32pm)

By .24, how much is that exactly?

It's a correlation coefficient..
.24 is a lot, and 0.9469 means there is a near perfect correlation between offensive potential and OPS.

This post was edited by xVitality on Jul 8 2013 06:25pm

Furio

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#9863

Jul 8 2013 07:33pm

Quote (Wine @ Jul 8 2013 06:32pm)

By .24, how much is that exactly?

It's interpreted as a percentage so, 24%. You could say this model accounts for 94.69% percent of a teams offense. In a lot of models, even a number as low as 50% is considered significant... 94.69% is actually an incredible result I was shocked. If you try that formula against past seasons you'll see that it's accurate to +-20 runs for a total season.

Quote (xVitality @ Jul 8 2013 07:25pm)

OPS is OP AS FUCK

Agreed. I'm still disappointed that I was wrong. Then again, this model was used for an entire season... There may be significant more deviation in the OPS vs. the AVG model in runs per single game.

Wine

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#9864

Jul 8 2013 09:53pm

SO mmucchh water ahhhh

Y2Dave

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#9865

Jul 9 2013 08:26am

Quote (Wine @ Jul 8 2013 10:53pm)

SO mmucchh water ahhhh

That why I stay indoor don't know how to swim. Most be crazy in Toronto what happen last night Richmond Hill we only get heavy rain with power outage no flood hope everyone ok good thing today game is not in Toronto damn when this rain will stop

Wine

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#9866

Jul 9 2013 08:42am

Quote (Y2Dave @ Jul 9 2013 10:26am)

Im in downtown Toronto and it was hammering hard at around 6pm. Thankfully my basement didnt flood LOL.
Got power outage for like one hour only

Y2Dave

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#9867

Jul 9 2013 10:56am

Quote (Wine @ Jul 9 2013 09:42am)

Im in downtown Toronto and it was hammering hard at around 6pm. Thankfully my basement didnt flood LOL.
Got power outage for like one hour only

Good thing you were not in that go train heading toward Richmond Hill feel soo sad for them damn those rescuer are newbie the first thing they should bring is good and drink for those people around 12am I check tv and still 500 more people on train