Quote (KEVINFORGIVEME @ Mar 16 2011 10:27am)
Here's my final thoughts on the off season moves and on the upcoming season. It will be my last post on here for awhile.
Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey for JJ Hardy, Brendan Harris, $500,000 - IMO this was a great trade. We gave up 2 pitchers that would have had no shot at ever making our bullpen in the next couple years for a SS who is a major improvement over Izturis/Andino. It will be interesting to see how his season goes. If he has a great year he will likely leave and seek a long term contract, if he has a mediocre season we will probably extend him for 2-3 years and spend each off season talking about his potential until Machado is ready, if he has another injury plagued year we will find ourselves in the same position next offseason as we look for another stop gap SS until Machado arrives.
David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio for Mark Reynolds - Not as great a bargain as Hardy but a good trade for us. We were able to significantly upgrade 3B for now and the future and it cost us two relievers. Giving up two bullpen arms for our 3B for the next few years is perfectly fine by me. Hernandez has the potential to be a great closer and at worst looks like he will be a great power arm in the back end of a bullpen but he is not a starter, and he never will be. Mickolio if he can ever put it together can be a complete monster, but he can't repeat his delivery and I wonder if he ever will. Last year Mickolio was supposed to be in the bullpen but struggled and then never could get it going in AAA.
Derrek Lee signing - OK signing, not terrible but not great. He is using us just as we are using him. If he has a bounceback year maybe he will get one last multi year contract next season and he will be a type A free agent netting us draft picks or netting us a prospect or two at the deadline. If he has an ok year he will still likely at least net type B compensation and get us a draft pick. I expect him to have a good season though, his power should return once his wrist is 100%. I would have much rather signed Dunn or V-Mart to a 3+ year deal and have 1B figured out for the next 3 seasons but neither of them were interested in coming to Baltimore. The Lee signing also represents a great oppurtunity for Snyder, Bell, and who knows maybe even Mahoney to have a shot at 1B next season if either of them can impress enough this season.
Vlad Guerrero signing - I can't make my mind up on this signing. Much like Lee he is using us in an attempt for one more multi year deal and we are using him in an attempt to finally get over .500 and possibly net us a draft pick in the off season or maybe a prospect at the trade deadline. I hope that the fact AM claims we went over budget to sign him doesn't mean that it is going to take away from the money we possibly spend on the international market or draft. If that is the case than it was a horrible signing, but I doubt it will be. The signing also represents a logjam in LF since Vlad will occupy the DH slot in the lineup. It hurts Reimold the most since Scott will get the majority of the starts in LF and Pie can play CF so he will likely be the 4th OF. I understand the argument that it makes us better this year but let's be honest we aren't competing this year unless everything goes right (and how often does everything go right? especially with the O's) and it might have been better to give the at bats he is going to have to Pie/Reimold and see if one of them can finally prove they are worthy of being an everyday starter for us.
Continued in my next post.
Quote (KEVINFORGIVEME @ Mar 16 2011 10:29am)
Duke signing - OK signing. High risk high reward, he's worth the risk since it was only $700,000 because he would have been a great addition to the rotation if he could stay healthy. Who knows, maybe eventually this season he is healthy and he can give us a nice string of games and we can trade him at the deadline to a contender for a prospect.
Kevin Gregg signing - Stupid signing. I don't hate the fact we signed him but we overpaid for someone like him. If he ends up saving 35+ games than great but I don't think it was necessary to sign him as our bullpen would have been fine without him.
Jeremy Accardo signing - Great signing. He can be a great reliever and we aren't paying him much.
2011 season - In all honesty I think we are looking at high 70's/low 80's in terms of wins. Roberts injury problems will hurt but not nearly as much as they did last season now that we finally have a decent lineup. If the young players can all continue to play like they did under Buck last year and even take a step forward we might have something special on our hands, but we would need everything to go right. I expect Matusz to take a huge step forward, Guthrie to stay the same, and Arrieta to improve. If those 3 can pitch like they are capable of and 2 of Bergesen/Duke/Tillman/Britton can pitch well maybe we can make a run at the Wild Card. The offense should provide for some excitement and make it so that we are in every game. I really hope Jones can finally make the leap and turn into the super star we all know he is capable of.
Very good evaluation.