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Finding Clarity For Flaherty
  Every year it seems as if the baseball world spends an extensive amount of time discussing the utility infield spot for their respective team. The amazing part is that the utility player primarily tends to be one of the last players to make the 25-man roster each year. Funny enough, they also usually provide minimal impact on the major league roster. Last season, only three AL utility players actually provided their team with a fWAR over 1.0. Regardless, it's extremely exciting to figure out whom should take over this utility role.


  The Orioles seem inclined to keep Ryan Flaherty on the roster after his "torrid" spring. Flaherty, a Rule 5 pick from the Cubs, has batted.265/.321/.449 in 49 AB so far. He also has tallied 10 RBI and played practically every position except P, C, and CF. Obviously the Orioles are happy that he has shown some form of success at the plate, but I think they are probably more impressed with the positional eligibility he has provided them. If there is any chance for Flaherty to stick the entire season on the roster, that would primarily be the main reason. But even if Flaherty turns out to be a below-average hitter, he still could provide some value for the club. Well, at least the minimal value that most utility players provide. Check out the utility players from last season:

Notes:
- I only used players that had played at least 20 Innings at three different positions, not including OF. For example, Jack Wilson played 20+ innings at 2B, 3B, and SS. They could also play OF, but needed at least two other positions to classify as a true utility guy (Playing OF is just considered a 4th OF to me). So a guy like Ezekial Cabrera does not classify as a utility guy, but Brent Lillibridge does.
- They needed to have at least 150 PA or 50 games played.
-I did not use anyone with over 500 PA, as they essentially were starting and no longer being used in a utility role. Robert Andino would be an example of that.


  As shown above,the average statistics of an AL utility infielder were not exactly mind-blowing. Maicer Izturis is essentially a top-line utility guy, and border-line starter. Ramon Santiago and Brent Lillibridge proved to be excellent utility options. Everyone else practically was indifferent to their club from a value aspect.
  So in reality, it does not seem like much of a stretch to envision Flaherty putting up a line of .239/.294/.360 in 2012. Oddly enough, ZIPS projects Flaherty to produce a .238/.289/.376 batting line, which is extremely close to the average utility players' line from 2011. It remains to be seen what positions Flaherty will actually play the most, and that could fluctuate his fWAR substantially since fWAR calculates defensive metrics into its total. If he plays much SS, I wouldn't expect him to reach that 0.4 fWAR.
  In conclusion, the utility infielder role really is not a season-changing role, but Flaherty seems capable enough to live up to the utility standards set last season

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Heavy Winds In Baltimore
  The Orioles' offense was roughly average last year. It was not the main reason they only won 69 games, but it certainly was not a factor in helping them win more. in 2012 the Orioles have subtracted players such as Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee, and added Wilson Betemit and  Chris Davis. Guerrero and Lee proved to be at the end of their respective careers. Betemit and Davis seem to provide around the same level of play as both the veterans, but at a much lesser price. However, there is one thing that both these new full-time Orioles bring. They are extreme K machines. Betemit had a 29.2 K% last season, while Davis had a 30.0 K%. So it seems that while the Orioles might have gotten a little more versatile with their roster, they also are prepared for extreme winds at Camden Yards in 2012.

The Orioles ranked 17th in K% in 2011 with an 18.2% rate. That equates to 1120 K's.

In 2011 Wilson Betemit had 105 K's in 359 PA. If averaged to 500 PA, it equates to 145 K's.
In 2011 Chris Davis had 63 K's in 210 PA. If averaged to 500 PA, it equates to 150 K's.

Vlad Guerrero had 56 K's in 590 PA.
Derrek Lee had 83 K's in 364 PA.

So for fun, let's do a little addition and subtraction.


  1276 K's would have ranked 5th in 2011. That's obviously not an exact projection, since there are a ton of other players that will trickle onto the roster as well. Also that does not add in progression and regression from the other current starters. There are also a ton of other factors that apply when looking at how productive an offense is, but being near the bottom in any negative statistic like this is probably not a good thing. Add that along with the fact that the Orioles had one of the worst BB% in 2011, and it's not exactly a pleasant picture. If the Orioles do intend to give Betemit and Davis 500 PA, then heavy winds should be expected in the Baltimore Area. Also, I would actually go over on 150 K's for Davis if he gets 500 PA.

  In conclusion, I doubt that the number of K's will truly affect the outcome of the offense, but it will surely make watching the games a little more frustrating.

Quote (IrMitchell @ Apr 3 2012 01:36pm)

What are you Os fans feeling right now? Is there any optimism or are you just hoping for development.