Baltimore Orioles - Topic

xVitality

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#6261

Jan 16 2012 09:39pm

Isn't Jim Johnson moving into the rotation now?
Or is he sticking at Closer?

beisbaal

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#6262

Jan 16 2012 09:50pm

Quote (xVitality @ Jan 16 2012 10:39pm)

Isn't Jim Johnson moving into the rotation now?
Or is he sticking at Closer?

i dont even know honestly. as of now he is our closer though but that could change if they sign a closer

SimCity

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#6263

Jan 16 2012 09:52pm

Quote (tuckerblair89 @ Jan 16 2012 08:50pm)

i dont even know honestly. as of now he is our closer though but that could change if they sign a closer

Well he can move to the rotation now that Jesus Montero isn't in the division anymore rofl.

beisbaal

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#6264

Jan 16 2012 09:54pm

Quote (SimCity @ Jan 16 2012 10:52pm)

Well he can move to the rotation now that Jesus Montero isn't in the division anymore rofl.

ohoho.
whatever the Orioles do, it will be stupid.

Minestrone

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#6265

Jan 17 2012 06:32am

Quote (tuckerblair89 @ Jan 16 2012 10:54pm)

ohoho.
whatever the Orioles do, it will be stupid.

Looking forward to a mostly Asian rotation.

Guthrie (half-Japanese)
Wada (Japanese)
Chen (Taiwanese)
Britton (White)
Arrieta (Texas)

xVitality

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#6266

Jan 17 2012 07:09am

Projections on Britton?

Minestrone

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#6267

Jan 17 2012 07:43am

Quote (xVitality @ Jan 17 2012 08:09am)

Projections on Britton?

Might want to get one from Tucker too.

Britton pitched 171 innings last year, and I expect him to hit 185-190 this year, barring any health problems.
IMO, he's probably the #3 starter in our rotation, behind Guthrie and Hunter, unless we add another starter.
He'll be over 10 wins again, unless he has a season like Matusz.
He keeps the ball down, and won't allow many home runs.

My bet,
13-9 / 186IP / 3.95ERA / 115K / 51BB

Minestrone

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#6268

Jan 17 2012 07:56am

However, I think Arrieta will have a bounce-back season.
He's been "secretly" injured the past two years because of floating bone chips in his throwing elbow.
Finally, he gets them removed.
I expect a better moving fastball and more control, thus less walks.

beisbaal

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#6269

Jan 17 2012 11:26am

Quote

Orioles FIP Projections for 2012

Postby TuckerBlair89 » January 17th, 2012, 1:22 pm
Clearly a very flawed look into the projection of next years staff, but it's fun to look into the crystal ball every once in a while.

Zach Britton
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.84
Jeremy Guthrie
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.56
Brian Matusz
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.55
Jake Arrieta
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.79
Tommy Hunter
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.48
Chris Tillman
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.82
Brad Bergesen
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.63
Dana Eveland (only 30 Innings in 2011)
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.81(presumably projecting him as a reliever)
Jim Johnson
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.71
Pedro Strop
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 2.98
Kevin Gregg
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.48
Alfredo Simon
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.96 (looks to be projected as a starter though)
Troy Patton
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.55
Jason Berken
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.63

Average Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.34
This would have been the fourth lowest FIP in 2011, only better than the Houston Astros (4.35), Cincinnati Reds (4.37), and the Dreaded Baltimore Orioles (4.67!!!!!)
So yea....The Orioles are projected to get better, but not enough to matter!
4.34 is a terrible number still. The Phillies had the best FIP in the majors at 3.24!!! For anyone wondering, the Yankees had a team FIP of 3.87 (13th).

Some things to consider:

-There are no Bill James projections for the following players: Tsuyoshi Wada, Wei-Yin Chen, Darren O'day, Zach Phillips, and Clay Rapada.
-They could provide the Orioles with some much better numbers, and who knows, they could even factor into other players producing better numbers in other roles (such as a starter in the bullpen).
-The Orioles still could be looking into adding more pitching.
- Players could actually do better than their projection, or for that matter, they could do worse.

Anyways, they are just projections and nothing more. But even as projections you can see how far the Orioles really have to go or how much the young starters really need to improve for the Orioles to be a contender

look how bad our pitching staff has been/is LOL

This post was edited by tuckerblair89 on Jan 17 2012 11:26am

beisbaal

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#6270

Jan 17 2012 11:29am

and yea rick i think those numbers are reasonable. IF he can say healthy and consistent this year.

I think our rotation will end up being :

Guthrie, Chen, Britton, Hunter, Arrieta to start the season.
Order doesn't really matter after Guthrie though. They'll look at the matchups and go from there.

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