Quote (Benny21 @ Dec 16 2015 06:25pm)
Bad deal for the Reds imo. Sold high on him and still didn't get anything truly impressive in return
I agree, Peraza was a big time prospect but to get traded twice now in under a year is a little concerning.
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I'm floored that this is all the Reds could get for two years of Todd Frazier.
Jose Peraza is the one serious prospect they're getting back, and even he has seen his value dip a bit because of a disappointing 2015 season, in which his lack of power or patience showed his reliance on batting average. Peraza is a former shortstop who was moved to second base in one of many ill-fated decisions under Atlanta's previous regime, although I think he could probably handle shortstop if he were given time to readjust to it. Otherwise he's a potential 70 defender (in the 20-80 scouting scale) at second who makes a lot of contact and is a plus-plus runner but has a little of that Billy Hamilton disease at the plate.
The Reds got two other players: Scott Schebler and Brandon Dixon. Schebler performed well as an older player in good parks in the low minors, but he hit a wall in Triple-A this year at age 24. He's very strong and could hit 10-15 homers as a part-time player, albeit with a low average and OBP, and while he can handle center field on a temporary basis, he's really best-suited to left. At most, he's a fourth outfielder, and he might not even be that. Dixon might be just an organizational player, a poor second baseman who has played some outfield and whose only good performance in pro ball was when he repeated the Cal League at hitter-friendly Rancho Cucamonga. So this deal could easily turn out to be Frazier for Peraza, and that's not as much as I thought Frazier would fetch in return.
The Chicago White Sox get Frazier, and I think they came out the best in this three-team deal. Frazier is 29 years old and under control through the end of 2017, so Chicago gets what should be two peak years from him, more or less, and even if the power surge of 2014 and '15 doesn't last, he was still about a three-win player in each of the two years before that, playing above-average defense at third base with enough power to overcome modest to poor OBPs. White Sox third basemen were so bad in 2015 (.226/.277/.345) that they would have been better off firing Robin Ventura and installing him at the hot corner, so Frazier is a huge upgrade right away.
The "small-market" Los Angeles Dodgers continue their arduous rebuilding process, acquiring three prospects, all of whom are major league-ready in some fashion. Micah Johnson flopped in an early 2015 trial in the majors, but it was far too short to be concerned about him, and when he got healthy and played every day in Triple-A, he did what he always does: made a lot of contact with some doubles power and ran like hell. He has been improving at second base but is still below average there, and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he'll eventually have to move to center field, but I'd leave him at second for at least another year and see if more work there improves his glove to the point where it's passable, because the bat will profile well there.
Frankie Montas throws 100 mph -- he hit 101 in a short stint at the 2015 Futures Game -- with a hard slider in the upper 80s but terrible command. He's a big, somewhat awkward kid who has had trouble repeating his delivery, and when he's throwing 98-plus mph, it can get pretty straight, so while he hasn't walked a ton of guys in the minors, his command has remained poor, and I think a lot of his success in the lower levels came from just blowing guys away with velocity. His changeup is very easy to pick up out of his hand, and he has had trouble with left-handed hitters on and off in his career. He has a very thick body and has already had a serious knee injury that cost him about half of 2014. The Dodgers intend to leave him as a starter, but I think he'll end up in a late-game relief role.
Trayce Thompson might be a 70 defender in center field right now and has plus power, but he has a long swing and has always had trouble maintaining a good contact rate. He has a high floor as a quality fourth outfielder because of his defense, and it's not unreasonable to think he might be a Kevin Pillar type, so good on defense that he could be a regular even with a .300 OBP and 15 homers.
The value received is great, but why wouldn't the Dodgers just get Frazier and move Justin Turner to second base? That wouldn't be as valuable in the long term, but it would make the team much better for 2016, which has to be a priority given the current level of investment in the major league roster. Jokes about rebuilding are fun until the team falls a couple of wins short of a playoff spot, and with Arizona and San Francisco already improved over last year, the Dodgers need to do something -- probably two or three things -- to improve the roster for 2016.
Via Keith law
This post was edited by Profar on Dec 16 2015 06:52pm