reason for Granderson's terrible UZR rating
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The way Gardner covers ground allows the Yankees to use different defensive alignments, shifting Granderson more toward right field in some situations because they assume Gardner can cover all of left-center.
Despite the shift, Granderson is responsible for the same zones as all other center fielders. While it’s true that he’s not debited for plays that Gardner makes in Granderson’s zones, Granderson also does not get the credit for those plays. Since UZR compares players on a positional basis, Granderson’s low UZR might simply be the product of him not making the same number of plays as his fellow center fielders. Since poor left fielders flank many of them, they have more opportunities to improve their UZR scores by making plays in the left fielder’s zone. Granderson has no such opportunity. Gardner is responsible for those zones, and he typically makes the plays.
This issue cropped up in the recent past with Andrew McCutchen. When John Russell managed the Pirates he positioned the Pirates in a way that would take away the bigger part of the ballpark. It’s debatable whether this odd shift was effective on the whole, but it certainly took a toll on the outfielders’ UZR scores. This was particularly perplexing when it came to McCutchen, who, by way of every scouting report ever written about him, was a superb defender in center field. Yet in his first two years in the majors he produced negative UZR scores: -1.3 and -13.7. The Pirates replaced Russell with Clint Hurdle this off-season, who presumably ceased the shift. The result: McCutchen has produced a 7.0 UZR this year, which is a bit more in line with expectations.
If positioning does play into Granderson’s heavily negative UZR, then how should that be handled in terms of WAR? Should we actually penalize him for an effective team strategy? After all, the Yankees’ outfield ranks third in the majors in UZR, trailing only the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox. Shouldn’t there be some way of adjusting for this, especially as WAR plays an increasing role among MVP voters?
The truth is that no single stat can perfectly relate a player’s on-field value. While the WAR framework is strong, it’s only as good as the inputs. If UZR is inaccurately assessing Granderson, due to unique positioning, then it won’t properly rate him among his peers. As with every player evaluation issue, we should look beyond the surface and find the truth in every area we can. And who knows: maybe UZR does have it right on Granderson. Maybe he has declined precipitously this year. But with all the questions surrounding that assessment, including observations to the contrary and Granderson’s superb flanker, it’s likely that we have to look beyond WAR to get at true grasp of Granderson’s place in the MVP conversation.
(That said, Jose Bautista, at this moment in time, is the AL MVP. Just to make that clear.)