It's not all so bad Genetics
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I said in my free-agent writeup of Jason Heyward that "I'd be fine giving him seven years and over $150 million," and that's close enough to what the Cubs did here – I was thinking a $22-23 million average annual value (AAV), and Heyward will indeed get $23 million, just for eight years rather than seven. In a winter market that so far has seen some big escalations in top-end salaries, that's an extraordinary value for the Cubs, and all the more impressive because Heyward was the top free agent available.
Heyward is an elite defensive right fielder who can handle center, and he's already proven to be a solid offensive player, showing some power early in his career while more recently becoming a high-contact, above-average OBP hitter who puts the ball on the ground too often. Even as is, he's a 5-6 WAR player, more than enough to justify his salary, and if the Cubs can unlock some of the power that's largely been lost since he shortened his swing due to a shoulder injury, he could become a 7-8 WAR player. The contract values him for what he's been, but the Cubs will get his peak years and reap the surplus if he becomes the complete player he could be.
Heyward can also opt out at 29; while player opt-outs used to be universally terrible deals for clubs, I'm no longer so sure that's the case, as salaries have risen and contracts haven't gotten any shorter, there's a reasonable chance a player who opts out is simply sparing the signing club from paying for decline years. (There's always the chance the player disappoints from day one and doesn't opt out, of course.)
While early indications are that the Cubs plan to play Heyward in center and keep Jorge Soler, still a very high-upside talent despite a disappointing rookie season, I wonder if their long-term plans involve getting Heyward back to right field, where he's been among the most valuable defenders in all of baseball over the last few years. The Cubs don't have an immediate center-field option in the system, but could hope that one of Albert Almora or Arismendy Alcantara is ready in 2017 or that Ian Happ adapts to the position well enough to handle it by the end of that season. If nothing else, the contract gives the Cubs a ton of options with their impending outfield surplus, since left fielder Billy McKinney isn't far off and they just spent $3 million on 21-year-old Cuban center fielder Eddy Julio Martinez, who will make his pro debut in the spring.
The Cardinals appear to have been the bridesmaid twice this offseason, first on David Price and now on Heyward, but I don't see cause for alarm in St. Louis, as the returning club is still a 90-win team and they have the payroll and prospects (or young big leaguers) to improve. They do need a starter, and someone like Mike Leake or Scott Kazmir would be a good fit, backing up Adam Wainwright and providing some stability with both Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha a bit uncertain for a full workload in 2016. If center field is their concern, without a true center fielder on the roster, they have the assets to trade for one or could see if Denard Span would consider a one-year, get-healthy deal and hope the Cards' coaches can help him the way they helped Heyward. Losing Heyward is more of a loss on defense than offense, and I don't think this offense needs a big bat, not with a full season of Stephen Piscotty in 2016 and Jedd Gyorko added to provide some right-handed pop to boost production at second base.
Via Keith Law