Quote

He was patient. He saw the options on the market, his competition to acquire those options, and the superiority of what he could offer to sellers in comparison to other contenders. But none of those things would really matter if Braves GM Frank Wren hadn't took a step back and properly evaluated his own team. Around trade deadline season, few things can be more important for a team than having an appropriate and realistic perception of the state of their own franchise.

We've seen what can happen in organizations that don't have that clear, established direction. And it's not pretty. Injury-prone shortstops coming into their 30's end up with expensive long-term contracts, and somehow Jeff Baker becomes an untouchable franchise cornerstone. When you can't properly recognize which players are worth keeping on your own roster, you're probably not going to have an easy time figuring out which players are worth pursuing on other teams.

Now, Frank Wren didn't have to make any of those kinds of hard decisions. He hasn't had to waffle between seller and buyer like some big-money franchises that feel uncomfortable rebuilding in front of massive amounts of fans. But he did have a team that was far from perfect a couple days ago, and a whole bunch of people were willing to give him advice on how to fix it. Get a right-handed bat, they'd say. Go after Carlos Beltran, go after Hunter Pence, go after Josh Willingham.

And the whole time, I was wondering to myself, "Yeah, the Braves really need to get Pence so they can bench Jason Heyward and continue to play Jordan Schafer every day, right?"



There were people out there who were thinking the same things. On Twitter, you'd see people making the right suggestions- go after B.J. Upton, or go after Coco Crisp. You know, go after someone that will actually address the weakest part of your roster.

But there was always one name that made more sense than all of the others: Houston's Michael Bourn. If there were two things that this Braves team needed last week, they were an impact lead-off hitter and a quality everyday center fielder. And that's the funny thing about Michael Bourn; if he had a business card, it would read, "Impact lead-off hitter and quality center fielder." It's like Frank Wren was walking through the desert and somehow waltzed into a water park.

Then Wren took it a step further. He didn't just evaluate his team near-perfectly and find that perfectly square peg for his perfectly square hole; he got that peg for 50 cents on the dollar, too. What did the Braves really give up for a year-and-a-third of Bourn's services? A 25-year-old center fielder that's not likely to hit enough to play regularly (basically, Brian Anderson), a couple of potential No. 4 starters and a decent relief prospect. That's it, for a player that's better than Pence and much cheaper than Beltran.

Once again, you're seeing the importance of self-evaluation rearing it's ugly head. The Astros were holding onto a major asset in Bourn, a top-flight center fielder that's under control though next season at a reasonable price given that arbitrators tend to value power over defense and speed, but didn't treat him that way.

Instead of shopping Bourn as a star-quality outfielder like they should have been, it seems like the Astros were willing to admit that Bourn is only a role player, and were wiling to take back that kind of return. Any proper evaluation of Bourn's value, though, would've likely discouraged the Astros from making any Bourn deal that didn't include one of Atlanta's top-four pitching prospects.

And in the end, Houston's loss is proving to be Atlanta's gain. The Astros didn't think that they were trading a star even though they were, and the Braves were able to fill the right hole at an unbelievably good price. Think about the position that Atlanta would be in right now if they had traded Arodys Vizcaino and some other pieces to Houston for Pence instead of Bourn?

Yes, that's the sound of me applauding Frank Wren.

Quote (Noun @ Aug 1 2011 05:30pm)

that nigga ugly

Quote (austinhb @ Jul 29 2011 09:57pm)

i texted him and told him, hes as happy as i am

Quote (casedizzle45 @ Aug 1 2011 04:41pm)

im glad to see ur both happy to know the phillies just locked the penant

Quote (austinhb @ Aug 1 2011 05:42pm)

yep, got a better player for cheaper

Quote (casedizzle45 @ Aug 1 2011 04:43pm)

faster = better?

Quote

There is a theme pulsing though the internets this morning, with multiple writers pointing out that the Atlanta Braves new center fielder Michael Bourn is more valuable than the Philadelphia Phillies new right fielder Hunter Pence. Apparently there are some writers who think that distinction needs to be made abundantly clear. And as a Braves fan I can't help but agree.

First, from SB Nation's Rob Neyer (feels good to say that), comes this comparison:

What's perpetually amusing to me is how much lip service gets paid -- by old baseball men and old baseball writers, mostly -- to baserunning and defense, but when the rubber hits the road, who's going to defend the notion that Michael Bourn is a more valuable baseball player than Hunter Pence?

Which he probably is. Because of his massive edges in defense and baserunning, Bourn's got more Wins Above Replacement, these last three seasons, than Pence; 13-10. Okay, so maybe you don't trust FanGraphs version of WAR (fWar). I do, but you don't have to. Maybe you prefer Baseball-Reference.com's version (rWar).

According to rWAR, Bourn's lead is significantly larger: 11.8 to 6.4.

The simple truth is that if you do consider defense and baserunning with any sort of rigor, you're going to conclude that Michael Bourn is, in fact, better than Hunter Pence. In fact, if you believe fWAR, Bourn has actually been the second-best outfielder in the National League since 2009.

Meanwhile, David Schoenfield at ESPN references the same WAR spreads that Neyer uses, and comes to a similar conclusion:

Look, this doesn't mean Bourn is a better hitter than Pence. It means he's similar to others for his position. If you factor in just hitting and baserunning, B-R says Bourn has been about 82 runs better than a replacement-level center fielder over the past three seasons; Pence about 73 runs better than a replacement-level right fielder. Factor in Bourn's defense and he's the more valuable player.

Paul Swydan from FanGraphs makes a similar point, but says that the way each new player will be used will go a long way in determining their remaining value this year. The money quote:

The same can not be said due north in Philadelphia, where instead of allowing Hunter Pence to replace the warm-congealed-chunks-of-milk version of Raul Ibanez, they have once more partaken in tradition-is-best hijinks and sent down Domonic Brown instead. The difference between Bourn and Schafer is roughly three wins, very similar to the difference between Pence and Ibanez, but Brown narrows that gap significantly, and would likely have continued to narrow it in August, unfamiliarity with left field be damned. If the Braves do mount a comeback charge for the National League East crown, that will certainly be a decision the Phillies regret.

Every baseball writer from their mother's basement to the press box will be keeping an eye on how much Pence helps the Phillies versus how much Bourn helps the Braves. The conventional wisdom at this point seems to point to the latter acquisition being a bigger boon to the acquiring team. Braves fans hope that prediction comes to fruition.

Quote (austinhb @ Aug 1 2011 05:44pm)

no, advanced stats say hes better

also

There is a theme pulsing though the internets this morning, with multiple writers pointing out that the Atlanta Braves new center fielder Michael Bourn is more valuable than the Philadelphia Phillies new right fielder Hunter Pence. Apparently there are some writers who think that distinction needs to be made abundantly clear. And as a Braves fan I can't help but agree.

First, from SB Nation's Rob Neyer (feels good to say that), comes this comparison:

What's perpetually amusing to me is how much lip service gets paid -- by old baseball men and old baseball writers, mostly -- to baserunning and defense, but when the rubber hits the road, who's going to defend the notion that Michael Bourn is a more valuable baseball player than Hunter Pence?

Which he probably is. Because of his massive edges in defense and baserunning, Bourn's got more Wins Above Replacement, these last three seasons, than Pence; 13-10. Okay, so maybe you don't trust FanGraphs version of WAR (fWar). I do, but you don't have to. Maybe you prefer Baseball-Reference.com's version (rWar).

According to rWAR, Bourn's lead is significantly larger: 11.8 to 6.4.

The simple truth is that if you do consider defense and baserunning with any sort of rigor, you're going to conclude that Michael Bourn is, in fact, better than Hunter Pence. In fact, if you believe fWAR, Bourn has actually been the second-best outfielder in the National League since 2009.

Meanwhile, David Schoenfield at ESPN references the same WAR spreads that Neyer uses, and comes to a similar conclusion:

Look, this doesn't mean Bourn is a better hitter than Pence. It means he's similar to others for his position. If you factor in just hitting and baserunning, B-R says Bourn has been about 82 runs better than a replacement-level center fielder over the past three seasons; Pence about 73 runs better than a replacement-level right fielder. Factor in Bourn's defense and he's the more valuable player.

Paul Swydan from FanGraphs makes a similar point, but says that the way each new player will be used will go a long way in determining their remaining value this year. The money quote:

The same can not be said due north in Philadelphia, where instead of allowing Hunter Pence to replace the warm-congealed-chunks-of-milk version of Raul Ibanez, they have once more partaken in tradition-is-best hijinks and sent down Domonic Brown instead. The difference between Bourn and Schafer is roughly three wins, very similar to the difference between Pence and Ibanez, but Brown narrows that gap significantly, and would likely have continued to narrow it in August, unfamiliarity with left field be damned. If the Braves do mount a comeback charge for the National League East crown, that will certainly be a decision the Phillies regret.

Every baseball writer from their mother's basement to the press box will be keeping an eye on how much Pence helps the Phillies versus how much Bourn helps the Braves. The conventional wisdom at this point seems to point to the latter acquisition being a bigger boon to the acquiring team. Braves fans hope that prediction comes to fruition.

Quote (casedizzle45 @ Aug 1 2011 04:55pm)

meh well see, i think theyre both great pick ups, we got what we needed, same for u guys. this says he has advantages in defense and baserunning, i think pence is good enough at both, and a slightly better power hitter. I feel that pence makes the phillies more of a complete team and he will make guys like howard and ibanez more oppurtunitis.