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Billy Hamilton
Position: SS
Level: Double-A (Pensacola)
Age: 21
Law's preseason ranking: 64 | Law's midseason ranking: 27
Since being picked 57th overall in the 2009 draft from a Mississippi high school, Reds shortstop prospect Billy Hamilton has been called the fastest player in organized baseball. This season, split between high Class A and Double-A, he is on pace to break the minor league stolen bases record of 145, set by Vince Coleman at low Class A Macon in 1983.
Hamilton has 139 swipes already this year, and there are rumors the Reds will call him up in September, primarily as a pinch runner. While his speed would surely wreak havoc, even in the big leagues, Hamilton still has a number of things to refine before he can be a full-time big leaguer.
Make no mistake, Hamilton's speed is off the charts. His quick first step, agility and aggressiveness make him functionally faster than all the 80-grade runners (on the 20-80 scouting scale) I've seen before. In a brief look last year, I saw Hamilton score from second after tagging up on a deep fly ball, and last week I clocked him multiple times at right around 3.8 seconds to first base, literally off the running scale that scouts use (3.9 is equivalent to a perfect 80 score for left-handed hitters).
That said, Hamilton knows he can get away with bad jumps in Double-A but was caught stealing twice in the series I saw, both times from a pitcher with a slide step throwing to a catcher with an above-average arm. Hamilton can get away with sloppy reads and walking leads, a habit that will end against big league batteries. Hamilton needs to face the best to force him to learn better technique -- he's 139-for-170 (82 percent) on the bases in 2012 -- as he goes for second within the first few pitches nearly every time he's on first base.
While his speed is game-changing and just needs some refinement, Hamilton's bat is more worrisome. On the plus side, he has solid pop for his rail-thin frame and has a fluid swing that can slash line drives all over the field in batting practice. Oddly, Hamilton has his hands positioned deep and at times high with the bat cocked around his head, something that typically only power hitters can pull off.
He has limited raw power and even less in games (just two homers this season), and his 6-foot-1, 160-pound frame offers little physical projection. Power will never be a part of his game, and this power-based hand setup undermines his upside.
Hamilton also has a looser strike zone than a player of his type should, chasing fastballs well out of the zone. As a switch-hitter, breaking balls are always coming toward him and he has a lot of trouble squaring those up. Like many premium athletes, his loose BP swing turns into a stiffer, mechanical look in the game. Hamilton's approach is rightfully slapping the ball to the left side to let his speed generate infield hits, but with his hands set so far from contact, he doesn't have an answer for pitchers who throw hard stuff on his hands.
If Hamilton can shorten his swing, allow his athleticism to be a part of his swing and tighten his zone, he can reach his Luis Castillo-type offensive ceiling.
Defensively, Hamilton is also trying to have it all, as he's still playing shortstop even though it could take another two years in the minors for him to be big league-ready at the position. His arm is short for throws in the hole, and while his hands and feet are gifted enough to make it work, his footwork and feel for the position are lacking.
Hamilton could get to Cincinnati quicker at second base but center field would allow his speed to breathe and has an even shorter learning curve. (Not to mention the fact that the Reds have second baseman Brandon Phillips signed through 2017.) There are a number of decisions that need to be made developmentally for Hamilton to reach his ceiling, and while the stolen bases are incredible, there's more to the game than speed.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8266142/mlb-scouting-prospects-billy-hamilton-cincinnati-reds-hak-ju-lee-tampa-bay-rays