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Apr 17 2020 07:55am
Quote (Halfdead14 @ Apr 17 2020 08:34am)
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article


here you go

We collected extensive individual case reports across China and ... Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9).




It's still an early release article. I'm not necessarily disagreeing with their findings, but would rather wait for the peer reviewed version.
I think that an almost triple increase in estimated R value should at least warrant that.

I'd also stop to consider the fact that a "possible" misrepresented R value, could have disastrous economic implications. Because of this fact, even the research "could" be used to induce collateral economic damage to state enemies.
This virus is starting to appear to be a man made biological weapon, and we should not refuse to admit the possibility that it may also be a dual layered bio/economic weapon.

The Chinese have always played a very long game compared to most of the western world's sensibilities.

I'm in no way suggesting that we ignore this article, just that we at least wait until it's actual publication in July 2020; and that we keep in mind that covid-19 may just be part 1 of this attack, if it is in fact, an attack.
As others have posited, surviving the covid-19 infection means nothing if it leaves a country in an economically unrecoverable situation.

Or... there's more than one way to kill a country. To reiterate, let's keep in mind that unless we see the "whole" chessboard, we can't really be expected to survive the game.

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Apr 18 2020 05:51am
If R0 is truly 5.7 - roughly 82.46% of the population must become immune before “herd immunity” kicks in.

((R0 − 1)/R0) is known as the “herd immunity threshold” — that is, with an R0 value of 5.7 the computation would be ((5.7 - 1)/5.7) or 82.46%

Learn more here, — “Herd Immunity”: A Rough Guide: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077#3862683

As a comparison, here are the R0 values of other well-known infectious diseases: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
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