Quote (jackherer @ Dec 15 2023 01:25pm)
Interesting question if d2 and d4 were released at the same time which game would have more players?
a theoretical question with no chance of ever testing it? im in
okay so first of all, we need to control for all the factors we can! first factor, expectations! expectations can interfere a lot, theres a shitload of videos with ppl blind testing drinks on the street and rating the same drink higher just because it was in a prettier bottle. brands like clase azul have to thank pretty bottles for 90% of their sales because holy shit thats a bad tequila
anyways heres how expectations distort the experience (only one guy gave the answer that is now accepted as correct one):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjVFmaKtksgso we have to imagine that either: both d2 and d4 were new games, or that both d2 and d4 were successors to d1 (we are doing this to remove the tailwind d4 has directly thanks to d2), where case #2 would have higher absolute numbers, but hopefuly not too much difference in relative numbers
case #2 seems more realistic though, so lets go with that! so we got 2 games, both successors to d1. lets call d2 "baal" and d4 "mephisto" (technically should be lilith but lilith is a girl name and that can actually affect sales, so we take both same sex names)
now the more important question, should we control for graphics (assume same graphical standards)? because if we do, baal (d2) has even more of an advantage. but, if we dont, we might have to accept other differences as well (such as players, zoomers have been primed into the current business model "meta" so to say and that favors d4). so again its either or: same graphics quality but also same audience/actual graphics from the time but also the same audience from the time. in case #2 here d2 would absolutely annihilate d4 because players from d2 time were very averse to the current gaming meta. so lets take case #1! 2023 graphics, 2023 audience.
this is actually not that hard to imagine as we have d2r, which despite being only a bad copy of a game everyone has played for way too long, has a much more stable population. and stability gives higher numbers over time, high peak means nothing if you cant keep it up through time as what matters is the absolute player time count, which is basically the surface area below the player count curve (remember calculus and shiet). basically even d2r will in time have (if it doesnt already) more player hours than d4 (note that this is an irl example which doesnt even control for expectations factor)
NOW IMAGINE WHAT D2 WOULD HAVE
so d2 > d4 gg ty men best regars
This post was edited by Snyft2 on Dec 15 2023 07:33am
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