wow that math what a joke

I actually agree with some of your choices, but did you actually just try and make a script to find out win percantages?

Ye I did. Its not about which team has higher win rate. Its about the average reward you get for betting on a team. In short term, you might get unlucky or very lucky, but in long term you end up profitting.


You dont need to follow it if you think its incorrect. This is for ppl who actually come to this thread for advice.

This post was edited by GoDxNero on Nov 18 2014 06:35am

How long did it take you to write that?

2-3 hours in total, i started 2 days ago, each time i modify it little by little. The research actually took me more time than writing the code.

Hey guys! Does anyone know happens if my potential reward is lower than 0.03 ? Does it just go away, or adds up to the next bet or what?

if potential reward is 0.01 -> you have 33% chance to obtain a $0.03 item
if 0.02 -> 66%

Does it take into account certain things like the strength of teams they defeated?

Godxnero you remind me of savinoxo of loungebets lol

he wrote a program that does similar to your maths but with other variables and stuff

https://www.reddit.com/r/dota2loungebets/comments/2aobq8/my_dota2_betting_model/ckve8g3

in future i think instead of doing a post for each game with maths do somthing similar to this

Unfortunately not, like most tools that use statisticcs, that is why this tool is only reliable if you have a sufficient amount of data (high number of games played by both team).
I would say if a team has more than 20 games played, then the data is quite reliable. I usually take the data from last 2 months.
But if a team only played something like 5 games, then you have to make the assumption manually by checking who their opponents were.

Also I now include the tie games in those calculation, will make a very slight difference but not much. The data from last 4 predictions are still reliable.