Footninja The Riftsin - Topic

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Jul 20 2018 11:35am

Run #211/Reroll #4: Another sick melee SC while rolling map. I'm finding way too many of these on a char that can't use Max Damage

Run #214/Reroll #6: Run from WP is a little long...

...but inside it's pretty nice. Only 2 little pockets, and they're easy to check with Enigma

Will do a load of runs tonight and try and get an estimate on the average number of Boss Packs

Cheers :ph34r:

ThunderStone

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#662

Jul 20 2018 11:59am

Quote (Gavnlig @ Jul 20 2018 10:39am)

Post #658 (50 fg sent to AHQ95, guessed Post #657)

Optimist always pay off!! Keep the good work mate! Nice updates! Still ISO Uber :thumbsup:

Gavnlig

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#663

Jul 20 2018 06:58pm

Quote (AHQ95 @ 20 Jul 2018 19:59)

Optimist always pay off!! Keep the good work mate! Nice updates! Still ISO Uber :thumbsup: <3

Thank you so much! I'll probably want to get Stormlash before attempting Ubers, and especially Lilith feels very scary (and/or impossible) to me @/players 8 :baby:

So, I've been running some numbers and some Pits. Let's do the pictures first and end with a bit of math :banana:

Craft #245:

Run #220: Um rune, why not

Run #222: A few thousands runs late (was non-eth)

Gavnlig

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#664

Jul 20 2018 07:02pm

Since I only encounter poison from Spectral Hit uniques, I switched out two 11pr scs for two 7mf scs. Up to 159 mf now

Run #224: Would've been cool, but style >

Dropped from regulars, but it's reassuring to know that the base item exists :bouncy:

Gavnlig

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#665

Jul 20 2018 07:04pm

Craft #246:

Run #232: Blue SA from boss pack :unsure:

Run #232: Dangoons

Gavnlig

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#666

Jul 20 2018 07:07pm

Run #233: Would've sold for a pretty penny if eth

So much junk on screen, can barely see my enemies

Run #235: ISO 20life/15@ -_-

Gavnlig

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#667

Jul 20 2018 07:45pm

So for the past 17 runs I've counted the number of uniques and champion mobs. Apart from one outlier (1 pack in lvl 1 and 1 pack in lvl 2), I landed on an average of ~6 packs per run. That seems to contradict the info in the following thread, which states that Lvl 1 has a 6-8 boss packs and level 2 has 2-3. Has this been changed since 1.10/1.11?

https://www.diabloii.net/forums/threads/mf-guide-for-1-10-1-11.412453/

I added one more 7mf sc for a total of 166 mf. These are the odds of finding Stormlash from the different monster types @/players 8:

Champion: 1:480680
Unique: 1:189631
Minion (archer): 1:9979423
Minion (other): 1:8108281

Assuming ~66% boss packs are Uniques with an average of 4 minions, and ~33% are Champions, 6 boss packs should give me the following odds of finding Stormlash:

1/(4/189631+5*(3/4*(1/3547373)+1/4*(1/4365997))+2*(1/480680))

or

0.0026598% chance per run

or

37597 runs to find Stormlash :unsure:

With a conservative estimate of 5 minutes per run, that would take 3133 hours, or 390 days of 8 hours playtime :bonk:

This mind-boggling number made me consider Meph as a viable alternative. @319 mf he has a 1:40862 chance of dropping Stormlash @/players 8. With a conservative estimate (2 minute runs), that should net a Stormlash in 1362 hours, or about 43% of the time that Pits would give it.

I'll stay in Pits until Lvl 94, but after that I'm considering switching to Mephisto

What do I do? What do you want to see? Is my math completely off? Any input is greatly appreciated :wub:

Best regards :ph34r:

This post was edited by Gavnlig on Jul 20 2018 07:47pm

Gavnlig

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#668

Jul 21 2018 01:32pm

Run #238: Interesting chest drop, but non-eth and bad roll

Craft #247: I find it highly offensive that my current ring is Craft #20 from a3 Nightmare :bonk:

Run #242:

This post was edited by Gavnlig on Jul 21 2018 01:33pm

Gavnlig

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#669

Jul 21 2018 01:36pm

First time I've ever owned a Windforce, this feels so wrong :cry:

Run #243: Shame it's not 7, sold

Run #250: Raining elites

TheBabyPixel

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#670

Jul 21 2018 02:13pm

Quote (Gavnlig @ Jul 21 2018 08:36pm)

First time I've ever owned a Windforce, this feels so wrong :cry:

https://i.imgur.com/m3fj1lY.png

Run #243: Shame it's not 7, sold

https://i.imgur.com/8ZO4tqU.png

Run #250: Raining elites

https://i.imgur.com/dAdWOgs.png

This shit is perf xD

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