Quote (Snyft2 @ Jun 4 2019 10:18am)

after watching all the videos, ive noticed no major flaws in the next league design, meaning it should be a good league. if you are a poe fan, you will highly likely play this league. which makes it ideal for some statistics shit :drool: ! will use the steam charts because 1) its a big enough sample and 2) its the only thing i have :cry:

so basically the betrayal launch had about 123k on the first day (extremely good and unlikely to happen again due to diablo controversy) and a relatively linear decline with a not very steep angle (meaning good retention, people were entertained enough to play it). synthesis had 111k on start (very good but no special case like betrayal had), and what looks like an exponential drop in player numbers (extremely bad, means mass and fast burnout). and imo, synthesis was so bad that it will reflect on the player numbers this league. so lets predict stuff ^_^ !

by some normal statistical formula, you should get an avg of about 100k on start, and anything more than 110k would mean the game has grown in numbers a lot, 110k now would mean much more than 110k on synthesis start. anyways im gonna follow my intuition and say that there wont be more than 90k steam players at the maximum point, exclusively due to ggg treating core players like shit with a hard "no" to major game improvements like auction house :mellow:

what do you guys think :blush: ? feel free to talk shit to me now, or after the league start if im wrong ^_^

Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Jun 4 2019 05:48pm)

Holidays can be a factor, like ; "but it's sunny outside" no ?
So some leagues can be advantaged vs some others, related to when it started during the year, jeopardizing conclusions on a 10 % variation.

To know if a league is good i would check how fast its population got cut in half during the league. like good league is 6 weeks, bad is 3.

Quote (Furdtarmer @ Jun 4 2019 05:53pm)

:cry: tldr

Quote (Snyft2 @ 4 Jun 2019 16:56)

oh im sure the league will be good, they had to make it perfect because the state of poe after synthesis...isnt the best :wacko: and yeah, i did all the stats and 100k should be average if the playerbase doesnt change, holidays included (holidays dont really play that much of a factor, if nothing they should actually increase the player numbers). but 90k from 110k is way too much of a drop to be explained by anything else than player dissatisfaction with the core of the game, thats why im taking the longshot and saying the max will be lower than 90k :wacko: statistically theres a high chance that im wrong, which makes this all the more fun :drool: !

Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Jun 4 2019 06:01pm)

Do you have a better source than poe steam charts ?

Quote (Snyft2 @ 4 Jun 2019 17:06)

not really :cry: and for most things i dont need a better source, usually a sample is valid even if it is miniscule compared to the total, and this is a very large sample :blush: in this case there is a problem of migration steam --> standalone and vice versa, which does affect the peak but not the slope...but its all i have so i have to work with it :cry:

Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Jun 4 2019 06:12pm)

I asked this because poe steam charts sucks since few years now: charts are abusively averaged so it's no longer possible to make serious analysis like it was before.

Quote (Marley @ Jun 4 2019 06:13pm)

didnt ggg say a long time ago there would never be an auction house?