okay so heres my idea. imma say some controversial shit here so listen up brothers
poe2 will fail. why? because it will divide the community as its not a spiritual successor of anything the way poe1 was of d2. heres how it will happen, assuming the most likely scenario that its actually a good game when it launches:
1) poe2 has to be a complex game if it wants to keep the current poe1 players who are into customizing and being unique and all that shit. if that happens everyone will stop playing poe1 and go to poe2, if it doesnt people will alternate between poe1 and poe2
2) but poe2 cant be that complex as first of all, thats very hard to do, and second, people wont be able to get into it
3) so poe2 cant be a complex game, so maybe its gonna be like poe1 on launch. for those who dont remember, it was basic af. this version might even have good pvp, anything more complex and pvp will be absolute shit
4) the community will be divided between playing poe1 and poe2 as they will be vastly different
5) fomo and sunken cost will keep players way too invested in poe1, reducing the number of poe2 players
6) burnout will hit hard and fast
7) so the only solution is for poe1 to be killed off close to the moment of poe2 launch
8) but now poe1 players have nothing to play and a big percentage of playerbase is lost
9) so poe2 has to be complex
10) but it cant be
the best possible route is to make poe2 somewhat complex (late pre-shaper poe1 levels), while trying to keep poe1 alive for at about a year after the launch. anything more and ppl will lose too much time on poe1, anything less and ppl wont even get into poe2. also a problem is that poe1 is snowballing into shit and no one can stop it, and if they do a massive nerf now, ppl will just quit
tldr, after the initial few months poe2 is fucked unless they let poe1 die at the exact right moment
what u think brothers?