Follow Up http://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=72892573&f=160&o=50



I'm not feeling so well today, http://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=72899415&f=160&o=20 ( Honestly I could do with the distraction)

< Music for you to listen while you read dis. (it's only fair, I Watched that video)

But lets refer back to http://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=72808253&f=160&o=0 (my Market report.)

I wrote this on June 10th.

http://poe.trade/search/osohamohokohim Divine orbs >3:2 Ex & 5:4 ratio from 2:1EX
http://poe.trade/search/harinoyomanono Eternal's >7EX Each from 5EX
http://poe.trade/search/inoruriahokita Mirror> 270-300EX each (Bare in mind The next gen Mirror items isn't out yet, Mirror panic hype week shot Mirrors up to 350EX's (Was firm 200-220 for 2-4 months before tierlist patch) when New teirlist came out [We'll talk about this later], When the Next Gen Mirror Items are created, Expect Mirror prices to sky rocket, as They are a limited resource, There's noway they're enough Mirrors to creatire Full Body BiS even for the Richest players {Me included even though, I'm poor http://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=72847405&f=160&p=491686978#p491686978})

by my Predictions, Exalts should be a cheaper orb, because of the inflation of Divine orbs, Eternals and Mirrors, it's not Necessary because Exalt's drops orbs, just suddenly drops more etc, It's because the exchange rate of exalts has devalued in comparison to the three, Remember the Super market talk we had?



on top of this, Players are slowly returning to PoE in preparation for 2.0, Thus more Currency flows in the poe economy, Thus effecting the prices of D2jsp FG > Exalts pricing, since it bares down to Supply and demand, If exalt's are easily attainable prices are surely to fall, if exalts are rare, prices would surely rise etc.

On point with Returning players, Not Every player checks the Current rate of Exalt's before trades, they'll just trade for whatever they had done for in the past. (100-105FG post's) On top of that, D2jsp has a big temp league player base, if those players like "alpha" doesn't "Care" for the standard league, they just wana cash out of standard and inject that fg> currency in the new temp leagues.

From my Reasoning, Without 2.0 This "panic wave" is like a flippers paradise.



If there is a non consensus in Exalted orbs pricing, it spells one great big word, and thats "Profit".
In 2.0, Players has no reason at all to hoard Exalted orbs, - Reasoning, there is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON to Hoard exalteds orbs in Your bank, Why? Exalted orbs Cannot buy you BiS Items, when the newly made NEXT gen Mirror items, Will simply not be sold, (You wont Mirror something @350 Exalts and 200 Exalts free and sell it for LESS, Unless there's a better version released (probaly 1-2 months after the crafter gained crap loads of money IF the Mirrored item Isnt Already 6t1 all perfect) or you majorly fucked up / want to change to a new build etc. Bare in mind Expensive unique like Pledge of hands 6 link / AQT's pricing works abit differently, The price on Expensive/rare unique prices depends on the power it provides you / the Meta, For example, as rare's are getting new Teirlist / Potentially higher / better than unique, players are more inclined to pay more to use a rare over a unique. (There's Currently no information on unique's buff on PoE 2.0 Power creep (AKA they're mostly staying the same, Essentially they're becoming worst.))

With those exalteds coming out of Flippers / Rich wealth players, There will be more Exalted orb's in circulation, Thus Exalted orbs would be in more supply, AKA lowering the prices / ratio since it's not needed. DEBUNKER - Exalted orbs would be used for crafting, thus less exalted orbs = more value.



Exalteds farr out number Eternal's greatly, and the Exalts that will pulled out from stash into the circulation economy far greatly out numbers the exalteds VS Eternal's used. Given on http://cb.poedb.tw/us/mod.php?type=16 Rolling Next gen T1 Dictator's / T1 Merciless is @ 0.05% Chance Aprox 2000 ET & Eternal's used for the crafts.

Exalts would be used to buy Divines, (yes divines are actually rarer to drop than exalts) Alot of Divines would be used, and the population of corrupted tabula's has taken a Serious hit in the last few weeks, as players are converting them into divines, Thus with major crafters / Guild's are currently hoarding them, They'll rise.

Now, Let me Indulge you, if I already haven't, Let me show you a personal case study.

http://poe.trade/search/emoyatonoaroka Glyph mark, Before the new Tierlist announcement, was 290-320 Exalts a pop, now currently 05/07/2015 they're 260Ex online, 2nd Edition (Best divined editon 9.4% Crit) You can go into trade chat, and probably buy one for 230-240 if you're willing to wait / good with negotiations. Although Glyph mark is a Current gen BiS 6T1 (Future 6T2 Rare) it is still very dam frigging good, Not everybody can afford the next gen Mirrored items, and they'll take time to be crafted (Personal predictions 1-7 days for the new dagger by AXN -confrimed last time I heard rumors) Glyph Mark would Still be a Solid bow, if the Next gen Mirrored items are 500+ exalts, (Atleast untill they are mirrored too much and devalues) It's value should be retained at a similar value, for a good time yet.

Same could be said with Loath bane ambushers, http://poe.trade/search/taritasohamaka Currently 195Ex on xyz, but Actual flipper's value is aprox 150EX Thus Trade chat value is Aprox 180-190EX, From Aprox 230-250 before the confirmation of the new teirlist.

My point is, If you panic and sell right now, You've got nothing to gain. Infact you'll lose money, when you release you cannot afford the full body BiS Item's again, without a function character you have no access to farm income; Even if you mirror, the First Edition of Mirrored items... you'll still lose, As first edition mirrorbles are TYPICALLY Challenaged/ better divined by other crafters or a dynamic meta shift/ Early Ggg nerf bat / patch correction notes.

The key of it all is, purely intelligence, establish your sources make friends, and think ahead of the Major population of the PoE community.

---
Okay okay to the original FG problem, As I have stated the before, I'm a complete noob when it comes to fg conversion / strategy standpoint; However if I see the number's as a non consensus, I'll make a profit. {Also talk about this problem later} for example, They're threads on D2jsp that's pretty oblivious... if there's a guy Selling head hunter belt for 10k fg, and fg > Exalt conversion is @ 120fg per exalt, 10k/1.2 = 83.33 EG, when HH's flipper price is at 95-100EX in game, thats 100-95EX - 83.33 = 16.67 Ex profit to be made, Current HH belt ingame is aprox 105-110EX

Exalted > FG ratio currently influx's too unstably, for my personal taste, FG is a entity made up from an illegal website that we abid by, if you are caught you will be banned etc. However we are a somewhat "small" community, from a statistical stand point, Please take a look at -

http://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=72865605&f=160 - Self found poll
813 views, 90 Total votes
http://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=72879745&f=160 - Grand Scheme of PoE levels poll
364 views, 81 Total votes

From The prisoner's dilemma video as a reference, and yes, We're all human, and as human's we are all greedy by nature, Just like communism for example, It's a GREAT idea, only if we weren't so human. I am personally reasonable from rising FG > Ex ratio when exalts were @90> 100 & @110>120, as I bought out, and converted every possible exalts @ the 90 range to 100. Everything escalated when other players followed, on @110>120 I sold alot, and Players followed due to limitation/ Scarcity of Exalts. (I've apologized for this before, and I apologize for doing so again, but I'll 100% Do it again, since I don't like storing FG, and ofc (I'm poor, pls believe me noa))

In relevance to point, What I'm trying express is that, we are a small community, if exalt's prices influxes, from 120fg > 100fg per ex, and the next day it's 100fg >110fg (bad maths forgive me), You are ACTUALLY gaining no profits, it only further devalues the pricing of orbs & FG, That is Unless you use your FG for other things, like D2/ Other games or RMT shop websites, You cannot flip something for a Currency that does not have a existential value, Better example? (Buy exalts for 100FG each, Try sell exalts for 110Fg, If you Rise the Existing Market Exalt orbs to 110FG, your stock IG currency and FG further devalues)

D2jsp has ties to Rmt shops, if you push up the value of exalts or FG, It'll reflect back on RMT Values, IF the amount is sufficent, it'll casue a echo'ing through the realms, If RMT value rises, What have you Really gained? Nothing.

With this said, there is a essential flaw, we are the D2JSP community, a mere faction of the Live realms population, What essentially happens is that we get more orbs & FG that devalues, but the Live realm players gets poorer, and poorer.


Thank you for Reading.

This post was edited by Lamperouge on Jul 4 2015 06:46pm

Who the fuck is gonna read all that

TL, DR it means basically

I did

I did. His theory is pretty much based on logical explanation, i come back and enjoy reading everything.

I wanna point out that, this prediction is no longer Accurate due to the Major plot twist GGG recently revealed.

https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/1302066/page/1

Feelings hard to describe,


Or watch Video for Further Instructions.

I know, I know... Its good for the game in the long run, but this creates a non Combatable situation where BiS 6 T1 Next gen items, WILL still be created, but there'll be no way where players can compete with existing players whom already have 1k + ET's, Lets hope the decision isn't final, or that Eternal's return in the form of Divination cards / 2.1 mini Expansion.

fml Lamp.

This post was edited by Lamperouge on Jul 7 2015 05:02am

Hunter x Hunter

very good one

rip essays

topkek