I made some calculations for HR rune drops in The Chaos Sanctuary.

Assumptions:
- I used regular monsters only. Other monsters sometimes a little bit higher chance but it is not significant in my opinion.
- I assumed "doomknight3", "fingermage3" and "megademon3" are equally distributed. This is a "regular monster" in the following.
- CS has 150 "regular monsters"
- Solo run / Players 1
- Fact: mf does not matter for runes
- I calculated the chance for at least one high rune drop. This includes 2 or more drops also.

1:x ratio for each rune and each monster ("doomknight3", "fingermage3" and "megademon3"):

zod
3841314
1248427
3841314

cham
1471885
478363
1471885

jah
981256
318908
981256

ber
1095823
356143
1095823

sur
730549
237428
730549

lo
810410
263383
810410

ohm
540273
175589
540273

vex
569154
184975
569154

Sum up and divide by 3:
zod
2977018

cham
1140711

jah
760473

ber
849263

sur
566175

lo
628067

ohm
418711

vex
441094

Chance for high rune drop of "regular monster":
(1/2977018)+(1/1140711)+(1/760473)+(1/849263)+(1/566175)+(1/628067)+(1/418711)+(1/441094)=0.000011718813222449458295051822343655

The chance to drop a high rune in 1 CS run:
150 draws with 0.0011718813222449458295051822343655% chance
->0,18%

The chance to drop a high rune in 10 CS runs:
1500 draws with 0.0011718813222449458295051822343655% chance
->1.74%

The chance to drop a high rune in 100 CS runs:
15000 draws with 0.0011718813222449458295051822343655% chance
->16.12%

The chance to drop a high rune in 1000 CS runs:
150000 draws with 0.0011718813222449458295051822343655% chance
->82.76%

The chance to drop a high rune in 10000 CS runs:
150000 draws with 0.0011718813222449458295051822343655% chance
->99.99%

95% probability to have a highrune drop:
255633 draws needed
->1704,22 CS runs needed

Note that there still is a chance in 10k runs to have no high rune drop. To reach this probability of 99.99% you need 5239.6 CS runs.

This post was edited by Druidika on Nov 4 2021 06:26am

nice! i love this stuff
is there always ~150 mobs in cs?

Sweet, so basically, somewhere between 500 - 700 chaos runs is the tipping point where you are more likely to find a HR than not in terms of Chaos Sanctuary.

You should try to determine the average clear time for a chaos run in which you kill all mobs. Then express these numbers as a function of time as well.

Then you should take an average minimum wage and express the value of a HR drop in real-money value of time.

I do this kind of math often and it usually leads to me quitting games tbh.

I see you've covered my chances in this study very accurate

This post was edited by samah on Nov 4 2021 06:50am

Wow, based on just mental math of a ~7 minute clear time and needing to do around 750 runs before you find your first rune that works out to be like 88 hours. If you pay yourself a measly $15 an hour, that means in real money value of that time is like $1300. lol.

Of course, you would also find many other valuable things along that ride so in reality the real money value would be much lower. But if you are specifically just running for high runes, yikes.

As I said, sometimes I think if gamers understood the value of their time more they would spend it differently.

This post was edited by EvilArchy on Nov 4 2021 06:54am

7min clear times are awfully slow.

im assuming this in 1person chaos for this math

solo chaos runs, if grinding HR's, should take like 3mins.

this made me chuckle :P..
Don't compare games to jobs.
If you do, you would just eventually have to start working in your spare time to ''relax''.

Those are just assumptions and my average estimation. The real values might differ. The same goes for only using regular monsters as base.



yes, this would be the next step.



Not only yours. I have 5k+ hours in this game and I had my first vanilla d2/d2r HR drop yesterday (03.11.2021: Zod Rune / Players 1 / The Chaos Sanctuary )



Well I don't play this game to make money. I do a lot more than 15$ per hour.



This depends on gear. Without eni (naj staff) I need like 3 minutes.

damn thats rough.

ive gotten 2x ber, 3x lo, 3x vex, 2x ohm, 1x zod (still no cham) 1x zur so far in d2r... i had all but the last ber/vex/zod when my character was level 90...

someone else already did the math.
Chaos sucks arse if all you want is runes.

https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo2/comments/porq8m/high_rune_farming_guide/