Quote (Caedus @ Nov 9 2014 04:31am)

That is something I really can't see happening. Sure lot's of people who drive don't really like it all that much, but there's way too many people driving (definitely more than half) who enjoy driving. Cars that partially drive themselves (autocorrect steering to ensure you stay in your line, cruise control that allows you to take your hands off the wheel on the highway)? Sure. But completely self-driving cars I can't see.

Quote (Epicexecution @ Nov 8 2014 11:35pm)

google was projecting their driver-less cars to be on the roads by 2020, but then again this was some time ago.  I too doubt that driver-less cars will take over the roads.  Not unless our government goes Nazi Germany on us

Quote (Caedus @ Nov 8 2014 11:24pm)

I don't know. It's only a matter of before all sports cars are DCTs. Enthusiasts like their clutch pedals but since we already have DCTs that outperform manuals (even on entry level cars, not just hyper cars like a Bugatti), and people are slowly moving away from manuals, the market for three-pedals is going to leave. Right now, of the mass production automakers, only BMW and VAG have really, really good DCTs. As DCTs become the preferred "automatic" transmissions (in quotes because they're not actually automatics),

I wouldn't be surprised to see most entry level models lose a manual option within the next couple years, at least in North America. Europe obviously manuals are still entrenched and it's going to take awhile to get rid of them, but with VAG having such a good DCT already, and VAG having a massive market share in Europe (it's over 20%), manuals are going to become less common in Europe too.

I don't think manuals will go extinct like a species goes extinct, but I think they'll go extinct as standard equipment on cars by 2025.

Quote (FMX_89 @ Nov 9 2014 05:37am)

It's not just about performance.  It's a driving experience thing. Manual transmissions are actually on the rise in North America.

Quote (FMX_89 @ Nov 9 2014 05:37am)

It's not just about performance.  It's a driving experience thing. Manual transmissions are actually on the rise in North America.

Quote (Caedus @ Nov 9 2014 12:08pm)

Still really low. Up from about 2.8% to around 6.5% (new car purchases only). A strong reason I've seen for this is people who had manuals before are trading in their cars and buying new ones, which pushes the number up. I think the more telltale number rather than percentage of manual transmissions purchased is percentage of cars that come equipped with manual trannys. This number is going down. As counter evidence to that, more expensive cars are being offered in manuals, but overall the number of models with manual is going down.

Quote (FMX_89 @ Nov 9 2014 02:12pm)

That is a 100% increase. GM has all but said the corvette will always have a manual option.  Honda Accords? Who knows, who cares? Enthusiasts will always want a manual option.

Quote (FMX_89 @ Nov 8 2014 07:49pm)

A traditional manual will never go extinct.  Too many enthusiasts prefer 3 pedals.

Quote (Caedus @ Nov 9 2014 03:50pm)

It's still not very big and that's the point. Declining manual offerings is more indicative than purchasing numbers because automakers make their money by adapting to consumer demands/interests.

If you told someone 15 years ago you wouldn't be able to buy a Lamborghini in manual, they would have said you were insane. If you told someone 15 years ago the top of the line 911's wouldn't come in manual (Turbo and Turbo S), they would have said you were out to lunch. I think it's impossible to say a car will always have a manual option. Especially in a decade, when DCTs are significantly better performing than manuals, can a performance/sports car actually justify a manual option? That's why hyper cars and most high-end sports cars no longer offer them anymore.