Quote (FMX_89 @ Nov 8 2014 10:49pm)
A traditional manual will never go extinct. Too many enthusiasts prefer 3 pedals.
I don't know. It's only a matter of before all sports cars are DCTs. Enthusiasts like their clutch pedals but since we already have DCTs that outperform manuals (even on entry level cars, not just hyper cars like a Bugatti), and people are slowly moving away from manuals, the market for three-pedals is going to leave. Right now, of the mass production automakers, only BMW and VAG have really, really good DCTs. As DCTs become the preferred "automatic" transmissions (in quotes because they're not actually automatics),
I wouldn't be surprised to see most entry level models lose a manual option within the next couple years, at least in North America. Europe obviously manuals are still entrenched and it's going to take awhile to get rid of them, but with VAG having such a good DCT already, and VAG having a massive market share in Europe (it's over 20%), manuals are going to become less common in Europe too.
I don't think manuals will go extinct like a species goes extinct, but I think they'll go extinct as standard equipment on cars by 2025.