random guesstimate of the top 15 going into the 2012 AO

ATP
1) ND - not much to say here, the real question in my eyes is the margin, and that depends on his clay court season
2) RN - no way he can possibly defend all those points and get repeats of the giftwrap draws he got last year at all 3 majors he won. not to go on a tirade, but his french run wasn't exactly spectacular (although he did manage to not drop a set), his opponents played worse once they got to him at wimbledon in the later rounds (and shoulda lost to haase and petzschner early), and then everyone killed each other in long grueling matches before playing him at the USO.
3) RF - still hasn't lost to anyone other than those 2, and he's played like shit for long stretches in all of those matches (esp against nadal 2 nights ago)
4) Ferrer - doesn't have much to defend apart from 3 clay court events, and none of them are the french. i actually hope he wins the french, but it won't happen
5) Soderling - streaky enough to get it together for tournaments on end, but he has some points to defend.
6) JMDP - game really needs him back
7) Melzer - bold prediction here, but i think after all these years hes slowly figured out what he should be doing
8) Fish - again, just doesn't really have anything to defend in tons of tournaments
9) Dolgopolov - dangerous enough to win something seemingly out of nowhere imo. probably won't be consistent from week to week, but i bet he goes on a run somewhere.
10) Troicki - flying really far under the radar and playing with confidence after his davis club clincher. parts of his game are still a little raw, but shit.. guy is talented.
11) Murray - i mean, he can't fall that far, right? i think he'll be back in the top 5, but this year is gonna be a wake-up call for him, and he needs to stop moping around and firing coaches after trial runs.
12) Wawrinka - will probably never put it together for long enough to win anything big, but always entertaining to watch. if only he was consistent.. hope lundgren keeps him going as his career moves forward
13) Verdasco - pisses me off to no end. so talented, yet can't really seem to keep it together. i kind of hate watching him beat anyone now, mostly because i know hes going to get peon'd by someone like nadal at some point in the tournament anyway. actually raged irl at the end of his 4R comeback against Ferrer at the USO last year because of this
14) Simon - apparently has no points to defend either, love watching him frustrate other players tbh
15) Almagro - clay courter ftl

inb4 youzhny (who i like), monfils, tsonga, cilic, americans, berdych..


e/ would like to see godest do this too, just to see what his would look like

This post was edited by 987 on Apr 3 2011 03:52pm

1. Rafael Nadal - While Novak is on a roll obviously, I don't know if he can keep it up through the clay and grass season.. I think Nadal will be able to do just enough to keep his #1 ranking until the end of the year. I think he will win the French Open as his only slam, but still do very well at Wimbledon and the US Open.
2. Novak Djokovic - Certainly has the opportunity to end the year ranked #1, and he is obviously in the best position to do so, but as previous seasons have seen, he can randomly go in this hibernation state mentally. I really can't get a good estimate until Roland Garros comes..
3. Roger Federer - Very questionable right now. Had he beaten Nadal in the semifinals, I thought maybe his season might look promising, but after playing extremely poorly especially mentally, I'm not sure what to think. Obviously won't surprise me if he sneaks out a Wimbledon or US Open this year, but looking pretty doubtful at the moment. (I am actually thinking he might end up one or two spots lower..)
4. Robin Soderling - Miami and Indian Wells was really disappointing for him but I think he will bounce back fine. I mean everyone thought that Roland Garros was a fluke, but he proved them wrong. Outside of Federer/Djokovic/Nadal, he has been the most consistent at the slams (aside from Australian Open).
5. David Ferrer - The only other player that has really won anything. Had a pretty much dream start for the beginning of the year. Got unlucky playing Ivo for his first match (that must be so scary) at Indian Wells, and he played okay at Miami. Should rack up some points during the clay season to keep him up at the top.
6. Not sure who to throw in here.... Maybe Berdych? Since US Open last year, he went back to being the streaky Berdych we all know. But getting to the QF at the Australian Open and have a good chance at beating Nadal at Miami made him look a little more promising.
7. Andy Murray - Same situation as last year. Reach the finals at the Australian Open, then completely fall away mentally. He'll be back though.
8. Andy Roddick - Somehow when you least expect it, he ends up always making the cut. I don't think this season will be any different.
9. Stanlisas Wawrinka - At the bigger events, he has become much stronger mentally. I think he will end up in the top 10 for the year end rankings.
10. Mardy Fish - He can potentially go higher, but I don't think he will do extremely well at the slams. Maybe another QF at the US Open, but that is it IMO.

Some notables-

Dolgopolov - I hate looking at him, haha, he has a funny face and his hair bugs me. It isn't like Federer's old samurai cut, I don't know though, haha. He has a huge game and is already on the verge of breaking into the top 15. The only real breakthrough player I see which a chance to make it anywhere at the top this year.
Raonic - He has a big game, but I don't think we will really hear from him for the rest of the season aside from one or two matches.
Melzer - I like his game. Hits pretty hard and flat, plays decently fast. But I think he has a little too many points for him to defend over the year. He will end up like #12 or so.

This post was edited by Godest on Apr 3 2011 04:28pm

Raonic will be #1 obviously.

I'd like to believe Dol Potro to be back at around #10, he can't have a lot of points to defend after all.

I haven't been paying attention much, but how has he been doing in tourneys? He wasn't back up to form in at the AO this year.

won delray beach (rofl)
sf in san jose (verdasco), memphis (roddick), indian wells (nadal)
4r at miami (fish)

melzer takes out fed to get to the semis in monte carlo

It was somewhat expected. Melzer had some chances the three times they played last year, so it was only a matter of time he would beat Federer like he did against Nadal in Shanghai last year. I didn't think he would do it on clay, but sometimes you just roll the dice against those "go-for-broke" players. Got taught a lesson by Ferrer though.

Will be a really interesting match tomorrow between Nadal and Ferrer, rematch of their QF match in Australia. Has given Nadal some really tough battles on clay over the years, and even has had one win against Rafael on clay (but of course this was before Nadal became Nadal). If there is anyone out there to give Nadal a real test aside from Federer/Djokovic on clay, it would have to be Ferrer.

idk i feel like its been good to see both melzer and ferrer continue to move up at their respective ages.. both have big games when they're clicking, and seeing ferrer win a semi-big title would be a nice confidence boost.

sucks that the surface favors nadal, as david is a much trickier opponent on HC even though hes obviously one of the best clay court players in the world.

Would love to see Roddick somehow manage to win at least 1 more title before his career is over...