New data came in and I ball-parked a probability:
upon killing an average monster, the probability for that monster to drop a mirror is:
1 in 25,000,000
havent played poe2, but if the rate is the same as in poe1, chance is probably somewhat lower
i mean i can do math but not sure how helpful it will be
so im assuming you only kill normal creatures with base drop chance and no mf and whatever affects that shit (basically the worst case scenario). if x is the chance for a monster to drop a mirror, chance for that monster to not drop it is 1-x, chance for n monsters to not drop it is (1-x)^n, so the chance for a number of n monsters to drop at least one mirror is 1-(1-x)^n
so lets say we want a 50% chance to get a mirror from a number of monsters, thats 1-(1-x)^n = 0.5
so (1-x)^n = 0.5, so n = log(0.5) for the base of 1-x, so n = log (0.5) / log (1-x)
since x is 1/25000000, n = log (0.5) / log (1-0.00000004) so n = 17328680, meaning if you want a chance of over 50% to get a mirror, you need to kill 17328680 monsters
lets say map is like 500 monsters avg and you need 2 min avg to clear it, thats something over 69000 min (
), thats 1155ish hours, so if you play 8h a day thats something like 5 months
i mean knowing how crazy poe players are, that doesnt seem that high so probably more of us should have found mirrors by now
i dont think you are far off though, id say chance is lower but not much lower
edit: im working in dark here so i might have missed a zero somewhere. if theres anyone bored enough to test, be my guest
!
i did NOT intend that to rhyme
This post was edited by Snyft2 on Mar 11 2025 05:43pm