Now that NATO weapons shipments have switched from a restrained and measured approach into an all-out escalation aimed at an offensive into Russian held territory, and while all the public facing intelligence indicates Russia is treating the Ukrainian war as an existential crisis, we're right on course for a nuclear war. But where will that hammer fall first? Will the cloudy weather on any given day make the gerbils they strap into each MRBM's targeting computer decide to change course like how providence spared Kokura? Could it occur in the next few months as the spring enables a ground offensive, or in a year or two to come as the conflict festers? How many Russians will Putin allow to be killed by NATO before he escalates in turn?

Every step so far in this war has shown a passive-aggressive NATO pledging its restraint and unwillingness to invest the necessary force to win, yet willing to find whatever red line Russia sets and cross it. Likewise Putin as the aggressor has shown he wasn't bluffing when he staged his troops, wasn't going to withdraw when a quick and easy war was out, and keeps vowing to escalate in what he declares to be existential to his country. Unlike normal brinksmanship where a standoff remains an uneasy peace until one side blinks or both sides plunge into suicidal conflict, we're already in a spiraling conflict with bullets flying, MAD didn't stop us from reaching this point.

So what would the outcome be? What options would Russia have? Its imaginable they could sabre rattle by revoking disarmament treaties and conducting a nuclear test in the ocean as a show of force, but like the deliberations that went into the hiroshima decision making, that would not serve Russia's aims: The US would need only to keep propping up the Ukrainian war status quo. To really shock the west into submission would require actually nuking a city, and then we enter the red zone. Would Joe Biden get up an give an impassioned speech about how we're the bigger men and don't want the whole world destroyed so we're negotiating peace with Russia? Would nukes start flinging back and forth between the US/EU and Russia? Would China wait until we've already shot our wad and then pile the rest of their nukes into the US and be the last men standing? All suffused with an incandescent glow, billions of hunks of well done steak

I want not one city,

Dnepro Kharkov Kiew Lvov

all need nuke but Kharkov too close to me so not will happen


Dnepro Kiew Lvov need be nuke asap

But of course Parys, Berlin, Warsaw, Washington too must be.

You must all go at streets protest tell government no more nazi support. Tank red line!

kremlin bots hyperventilating and acting like russia is not the aggressor here, acting like russia hasn't repeatedly invaded ukraine, killed its civilians, and occupied its territory, lol.

if you're so afraid of a couple of ancient tanks there is an easy solution: just leave ukraine, and the war is over. no one wants to conquer russia. stop acting like victims, the only one who deserves to be nuked is pootin for spilling all that blood (not just that of ukrainian women and children btw, but also that of the poor russian bastards he sent to their death for his silly war).

One of the most controversial actions taken by the Allied forces during the Second World War was the February 1945 firebombing of Dresden. The largely civilian city served as the capital of the German state of Saxony, and modern scholars question the extent to which Dresden could be considered a military target

No less than 90% of the city center, where most of the artisan workshops were believed to be, was destroyed by the RAF. Over 17,000 civilians were killed, and the population of the town dropped from the tens of thousands in 1939 to mere dozens in 1945.

Jokes aside if shits gets nuclear stock up on food for the next 5 years

Remember that when nuclear hit you did this for Ukraine, family burn for Ukraine nazi ok?

*ahem*
they deserve it

100 tanks are not going to push Russia out of all held territory. If they arrive in time for any Spring offensive by Russia, then they will make mincemeat of Russia conscripts.
The balls in Vlad's court now. He played the nuclear blackmail card, he also said he wasn't bluffing. My money is on he WAS bluffing.

My guess is the Russians could deploy more conventional missile strikes, possibly combined with a spring offensive around Donetsk or Kharkiv.
I don't see them trying to push in the South around Kherson first. For the same reason Ukraine hasn't pushed across the Dnipro there, eg logistics and vulnerability when crossing the river.

It would make sense for Russia to take the initiative in attacking before main battle tanks arrive/are deployed.